In a bull market, don't guess the top, but every dip in UNI is the best time to see the main force's hidden cards.

As a long-time investor in the crypto space for 5 years, I can tell you from my hard-earned experience: UNI is currently the most contradictory asset in the DeFi sector — strong technical support on the surface, but fundamental undercurrents are brewing. Here are three truths to break down:

Hidden dangers beneath the surface prosperity: Who is secretly smashing the market?

  1. Retail investors become 'the ones who pick up the pieces', while whales smile silently.

    • On-chain data shows that about 330,000 UNI (≈$2.4 million) are continuously thrown into the market from mining pools daily, and it has become the norm for miners to 'sell while mining' to maintain yield.

    • What’s even more heartbreaking is: The 400 UNI airdropped to retail investors per wallet are still being claimed in batches.In the past week, hundreds of thousands of coins have flowed into exchanges daily to swap for USDT; these 'free chips' pose no pressure for a sell-off.
      (Case study: In June 2025, a giant whale transferred 1.23 million UNI to Binance to cash out $17.14 million when UNI rebounded to $7.5.)

  2. The 'time bomb' of the team and VCs.

    • Early investors hold 40% of the total supply (400 million), although they promised a 4-year lockup, all tokens can already be transferred.

    • These addresses have been inactive for years; once unlocked and sold, it would equate to 53% of the current circulating supply (750 million)! This is the true 'Sword of Damocles.'

Long-short battle point: $7.1 is the lifeline.

  1. Technical aspect: The main force is playing 'psychological warfare.'

    • $7.14-$7.17 support zone is the trend line of the rebound in the last 7 weeks; falling below will trigger stop-loss orders, heading straight for $6.6.

    • But the main force is good at 'drawing doors': In June, it once increased by 24% to $7.73 in one day, attracting followers who later turned and sold, specifically cutting down on those who chased high.

  2. Capital situation: Smart money has quietly retreated.

    • Key signal: The perpetual contract long-short ratio plummeted from 4.03 to 3.87, indicating an increased willingness among major players to short.

    • The inflow of UNI to the exchange surged (such as $10.2 million in a single day), which is usually a precursor to a sell-off.

The practical strategy of Shen Ce: Better to miss than to make a mistake.

  1. Short-term gamblers:

    • The current price of $7.34 is only suitable for opening an 'observation position' (≤5% of funds), add to the position if it breaks $7.6, and set a stop loss if it falls below $7.1.

    • Want to bet on a rebound? Wait for the volume to drop to $6.6 (weekly MA200) before buying the dip, and run when it rebounds by 5%.

  2. Long-term believers:

    • Don't be fooled by 'V4 processing 86 billion transactions'; UNI tokens and protocol earnings are zero bound.

    • If you really want to position yourself, wait for the daily EMA death cross + volume breaking $7; at that time, you can buy below $6 at will.

The last sentence hits the heart:
The essence of UNI's rise and fall is a 'liquidity game' — when miners need to sell $2.4 million worth of coins daily, how many new retail investors do you think are needed to lift the price?

Tonight's thought-provoking question: If you were the market maker, would you sell UNI when BTC breaks $130,000, or would you smash the market to gather funds? Waiting for your insights in the comments.

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