SOL is dancing on a tightrope at 150 USD, the spotlight on ETFs just turned on, and the ice rain of unlocking is pouring down - July is the crucial moment to see if it’s a mule or a horse with this key step!
Market status:
Price crash: SOL is currently stuck around 150 USD, having dropped over 7% in the last day, nearly 10% in a week! This performance is far worse than the market (CoinDesk 20 index), which only slightly dropped 0.24%, truly disappointing.
"Good news turns into bad news" live teaching: The first SOL staking ETF (REX-Osprey SSK) just launched on July 2, sounds impressive, right? 80% of the money buys SOL and can earn staking interest. But what happened? The news pushed it up to 161 USD, then within 24 hours it crashed back to 146 USD! A typical case of "buy the rumor, sell the news", just a fleeting joy.
Core contradiction: In the long run, ETFs are definitely good (they opened the door for large institutions), but in the short term? A huge amount of unlocking will crash the market, and everyone is feeling anxious. Good and bad news are fighting it out!
Technical aspect: Key crossroads, choose a direction!
The chart looks like a 'big triangle' converging: The price is being squeezed narrower by two lines (the upper one is the resistance line coming down since March, and the lower one is the support line coming up since April), and the current convergence point is around 150-153 USD. Which side it breaks through will determine the path for the next few months!
Remember the key positions:
Upper Ghost Gate: 153 USD (Triangle upper edge + important technical level) is the first barrier; if it really breaks through, 160-165 USD (a lot of people waiting to sell + another technical level) is the second barrier, very difficult to chew!
Lower Lifeline: 144 USD (many people bought here before, acts as support), 137 USD (key neckline of the trend, breaking it would be a big problem), 130 USD (important technical support level).
Indicators fighting, feeling weak:
Momentum indicator (RSI) stuck in the middle, neither up nor down, no direction.
Another indicator (MACD) wants to improve but hasn't yet, moving averages act like a wall (147-159 USD) pressing down on the price.
The most dangerous signal: What if one day the closing price really drops below 137 USD? That would basically confirm the start of a downtrend, with a potential target straight to 124 USD (down 20%), or even 95-100 USD! This risk must be guarded against.
SOL Battle Map (Save quickly!)
Where to go after breaking the importance of direction price area? Resistance $150–$153 ★★★, push up and hit $160–$165! Resistance $160–$165 ★★★★, break it and aim for $175–$187! Support $144–$137 ★★, if it can't hold, then watch $130! Support $130 ★★★, break it and accelerate to $124! Support below $124 ★★, may see $95–$100!
Fundamentals and sentiment: Short-term pressure is huge, long-term has hope
The pit ahead:
Unlocking flood! In the next two months, nearly 600 million USD worth of SOL will be released from staking! Coupled with ecological projects like Pump.fun also selling, the supply will suddenly increase too much, it's strange if the price performs well! (Shence's view: this selling pressure is real, don't underestimate it! Especially when market sentiment is weak, it adds insult to injury. Look at Pump.fun's previous operations, selling SOL as if it were worthless, this kind of ecological project 'bleeding' is also a hidden danger.)
Income plummets by 90%! Although SOL's on-chain trading volume (DEX) is even more robust than Ethereum, the network income (real money) has collapsed by 90% from January to now! Why? Too reliant on meme coins! Recently, the meme sector itself has dropped by 25%, raising concerns about SOL's ecological 'money landscape'. (Shence's view: Excitement alone is not enough, it needs to be profitable! Over-reliance on memes is like drinking poison to quench thirst; after a wave passes, it leaves a mess. Sustainability is a big issue!)
Large funds are uninterested: The futures funding rate is flat, indicating that leveraged large funds are simply not willing to bet on a big SOL rise, they are all observing.
Future light (potential turning point):
ETF real money: If that SSK ETF can continuously attract large institutional money (especially aimed at staking yields), then it can hedge against part of the selling pressure from unlocking.
Big brother leads the way: If Bitcoin and Ethereum rise, driving a rally in altcoins (Altcoin rotation), then it wouldn't be a dream for SOL to break above 165 USD.
Ecological transformation: Don't rely solely on memes anymore! Vigorously develop DeFi lending, stablecoins, NFTs, and other tracks that can continuously generate income to boost on-chain revenue - that's the way to go!
July script: A chaotic battle between bulls and bears
Bullish win (Probability: ★★☆ - moderately low): If one day the closing price firmly stands above 153 USD! Then there’s a chance to push to 165 USD and challenge 175-187 USD (March highs).
Continues to hesitate (Probability: ★★★ - highest): Just oscillating between 137-153 USD, waiting for the next big news (like excellent ETF inflow data, or Bitcoin surging).
Bearish frenzy (Probability: ★★☆ - moderately low): Most afraid of closing below 137 USD! Once confirmed, 130 USD and 124 USD become dangerous, and it might even slide towards the abyss of 95-100 USD.
Shence's operational advice for you
Short-term risk-taking:
See a volume breakout above 153 USD? You can take a small position to go long, targeting 165 USD, remember! The stop loss must be set below 144 USD! Discipline saves lives!
If it effectively drops below 137 USD (closing confirmation), don’t hesitate, reverse and go short, targeting first at 124 USD. If it quickly rebounds above 144 USD? Run! Accept the loss.
Long-term layout ambush:
Focus on two key points: Is there continued inflow of ETF funds? Are there any signs of recovery in on-chain real income (non-meme driven)?
If the price really drops below 130 USD, you can start buying gradually in batches (don't go all in!). Betting on the success of ecological transformation and institutional entry via ETF.
Closing hook:
"The unlocked sickle has been raised, and the ETF reinforcements are on the way - this 'survival' for SOL, will many troops fight to the death, or will the bears harvest in one fell swoop? Show your stance in the comments, and by the end of July, we’ll come back to verify!"
Summary from Shence:
SOL is now the ultimate showdown between technicals and fundamentals (unlocked pressure vs ETF dawn). The possibility of a trend change in mid to late July is very high (>70%), but the direction is uncertain. 137 USD is the critical point, 153 USD is the dragon gate. Short-term risks (unlocking, ecological fatigue) cannot be ignored, but long-term variables (ETFs, ecological transformation) are also worth looking forward to. In operation, closely monitor Bitcoin's market movements and ETF inflow data, these two are the strongest short-term indicators! Stay flexible and buckle up!
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