Market always sprouts in despair, breaks through in doubt, and collapses in frenzy—ETH's $2,600 level is the first domino of bull-bear faith!

Technical Analysis

  1. Fluctuation Range and Key Price Levels

    • Support Level: The $2,500–$2,535 range is a strong short-term support; if it breaks, it may dip to $2,470–$2,425, or even the psychological level of $2,360.

    • Resistance Level: $2,600 is a key resistance that has repeatedly failed to break; once surpassed, it is expected to challenge $2,800–$3,000 (mid-term target).

    • Current Formation: The daily chart shows a converging triangle or flag formation, with shrinking volume, indicating a directional choice is imminent.

  2. Indicator signals are neutral to weak.

    • RSI is around 50, MACD is close to the zero axis, indicating balanced bull-bear strength.

    • If a volume breakout above $2,600 occurs, it may trigger short covering and accelerate the upward trend.

News Front

  1. Technical Upgrade Effects

    • The Pectra upgrade completed in May 2025 improves staking efficiency and account flexibility, with the staking rate surpassing 30%, reducing circulation volume, which is beneficial in the long term but has partially been realized in the short term.

    • Layer 2 expansion sees daily transactions exceeding 100 million, reducing gas fees and enhancing ecological activity.

  2. Institutional Funds and ETF Dynamics

    • BlackRock's ETH spot ETF size reaches $33 billion, with net inflows for 20 consecutive days;

    • SEC may approve Ethereum ETF staking mechanism in Q3, with annualized yields reaching 3.2%, attracting conservative funds.

  3. On-chain Data and Sentiment

    • Staking Lockup: Nearly 30% of the circulating supply is locked in protocols like Lido and Eigenlayer, alleviating selling pressure.

    • Whale Accumulation: The number of addresses holding 10,000–100,000 ETH has increased, but retail investor activity is insufficient, and there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

    • Market Fear and Greed Index remains at 50, showing no signs of frenzy.

Shen Ce July Market Prediction and Key Catalysts

  1. Bull-Bear Scenario Simulation

    • Optimistic Scenario: Stabilizing above $2,600 with increased volume, aiming for $2,800–$3,000; if BTC breaks $110,000 or SEC hearings release favorable news, a rally may follow.

    • Pessimistic Scenario: Falling below $2,350 may trigger a sell-off, dipping to $2,200; if the Fed makes hawkish statements or Trump's policies cause disturbances, the market may deeply retrace.

  2. External Variable Impact

    • Macro Policy: U.S. inflation data and interest rate cut expectations are key; if rates are lowered, the attractiveness of risk assets increases.

    • Regulatory Dynamics: The SEC's approval progress of Ethereum ETF staking proposals may become a catalyst for breaking through $3,000.

Shen Ce Personal Investment Strategy Suggestions

  • Short-term (July):

    • Range trading: Accumulate in batches at $2,400–$2,500, set stop-loss below $2,350;

    • Breakout follow-up: After a volume breakout above $2,600, follow the trend with a target of $2,800.

  • Mid to Long-term:

    • Regular investment layout: If ETH/BTC exchange rate rebounds from the bottom, increase allocation;

    • Focus on ecological projects to diversify Layer 2 track risks.

July Bull-Bear Scenario Overview

Scenario trigger conditions target price probability strong breakout stabilizing at $2,600 + volume expansion $2,800–$3,000 fluctuating under macro without favorable news + BTC sideways $2,300–$2,600 breaking down below $2,350 + hawkish Fed $2,000–$2,200 low.

The probability of ETH surging in July is low, mainly due to the lack of strong catalysts such as ETF approvals or upgrades; however, the technical aspect is preparing for a breakout. If macro conditions warm up or regulatory benefits arise, a breakthrough above $3,000 is possible. Investors should closely monitor the $2,350 support and $2,600 resistance, controlling positions to defend against black swans. In the long run, ETH's technological iteration and institutional entry support an optimistic target of $8,000–$14,000, but this relies on Layer 2 explosion and a BTC bull market.

The only constant in the market is volatility itself; strict risk control is necessary to navigate the crypto waves steadily.


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