After the U.S. intervened in the Israel-Iran conflict and facilitated a ceasefire agreement, the market was once again shrouded in positive sentiment. This news propelled U.S. stocks to surge last week, once again reaching new historical highs. The Nasdaq index reached a historical high on Wednesday, and the dollar rose, while Bitcoin soared nearly 8000 points last week, and Ethereum increased by nearly 200 points.
With the signing of the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East last week, market sentiment improved, and the black Friday evening did not continue. The fluctuating battle between bulls and bears indicates that through institutional support, the bottom price has been effectively sustained.
During the weekend, everyone took a little break and relaxed. The market has been mostly in a sideways trend around 107000/2430 from Saturday to Sunday morning. On Sunday afternoon, the bulls slightly rebounded but are still stuck around 108400/2460. Currently, the market is in a retracement period.
Currently, the bulls are in an advantageous position on the daily chart, with the MACD showing an upward trend. However, the four-hour MACD is still below the horizontal line, and both RSI and KDJ are trending downward, indicating increased short-term volatility and signs of a market correction. The resistance level above remains, and if the bulls want to push higher, they will need news support for a breakthrough.
The current short-term support can be seen around 106800-2400. If it does not break in the future, the bulls may continue to push towards the resistance level of 109500/2530.
Last week, through careful planning by Yumi, after switching back and forth between long and short positions, we achieved remarkable results with Bitcoin at 21734 and Ethereum at 932. These good results are inseparable from everyone's cooperation and Yumi's precise guidance. Yumi does not hesitate to share the profits in the crypto space.
Looking ahead to next week, after the Israel-Hamas ceasefire, market focus will shift back to trade negotiations, and traders will closely watch the U.S. PMI data as well as the non-farm payroll report to be released early on Thursday due to the holiday.
The trade negotiations between the EU and the U.S. are entering the final countdown. If both parties fail to reach an agreement by July 9, tariffs on nearly all goods exported from the EU to the U.S. will be significantly raised to 50%.
As for the tariff issue, there has been no progress and the impending deadline is approaching, leaving the market in a state of numbness, mainly due to Trump's ever-changing character, which has muddled an already chaotic situation and created various possibilities for tariffs.
Trump stated on Saturday that cryptocurrencies are a very interesting thing, and we have built a very strong industry. Cryptocurrencies have created job opportunities, and Bitcoin has reduced pressure on the dollar. In the previous stock market downturn, the value of cryptocurrencies declined less than other assets, highlighting the resilience of the crypto field.
Federal Reserve dynamics next week:
On Monday at 22:00, Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak about the outlook for the U.S. economy;
On Tuesday at 01:00, Chicago Fed President Goolsbee will speak;
On Tuesday at 21:30, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will participate in a panel discussion;
On Thursday at 23:00, Atlanta Fed President Bostic will speak about U.S. monetary policy.
A fierce debate is taking place within the Federal Reserve about whether interest rates should be lowered, which has not been calmed by the latest PCE inflation report.
Federal Reserve Governor Waller and Vice Chair Bowman, who is responsible for supervision, have both expressed dovish support for a rate cut in July. Recent statements have intensified this divide, indicating that given recent moderate inflation data, they now believe that a rate cut could occur as early as the Fed's next policy meeting in July. Other officials hold opposing views, suggesting that a cut in September would be more appropriate.
Powell has become a steady helmsman, stating that a wait-and-see approach by the Fed before tariffs are clarified is more beneficial for adjusting interest rates in response to any situation that may arise.
Non-farm payrolls are coming
Next week, the key focus will mainly be on the U.S. jobless claims and non-farm data at 20:30 on Thursday.
For the June non-farm payroll report, the market expects the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.2%, with the number of jobs decreasing from the previous increase of 139,000 to 129,000.
The key point for investors in evaluating the Fed's interest rate cut issue and how to guide monetary policy lies in the non-farm data. At that time, all focus will be on this.
Next week's key focus on the news:
On Monday at 22:30, U.S. June Dallas Fed Business Activity Index;
On Tuesday at 21:45, U.S. final value for June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI.
On Wednesday at 20:15, U.S. ADP employment numbers for June;
On Thursday at 20:30, U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21, June unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll figures for June, and May trade balance;
On Thursday at 21:45, U.S. final value for June S&P Global Services PMI;
Market Closure Reminder
On July 1 (Tuesday), the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will be closed for one day due to the anniversary of the establishment of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, with southbound and northbound trading suspended; on the same day, the Toronto Stock Exchange in Canada will also be closed for one day due to Canada Day;
On July 3 (Thursday), due to the U.S. Independence Day, the New York Stock Exchange will close early at 01:00 Beijing time on July 4, and the CME’s stock index futures will end trading early at 01:15 Beijing time on July 4;
On July 4 (Friday), due to the U.S. Independence Day, U.S. stocks will be closed for one day.
How will Bitcoin and Ethereum perform next week? Will last week's good results continue? Let's see how Yumi strategizes. The story continues, and for all the fascinated friends, don't change the channel and continue watching the next breakdown!
