After experiencing a pin bar fluctuation, the market is steadily rebounding in small steps. Currently, Bitcoin (BTC) is in a one-hour rebound cycle, with $106,000 being both the hourly rebound resistance and the daily bull-bear watershed. Whether the four-hour K-line can break this position at night will determine if the rebound can continue.
I. Key Signal Analysis on the Technical Side
1. One-Hour Rebound Characteristics: The price has rebounded from the low of $103,000 and is currently near $105,800, with trading volume showing a 'moderate increase - contraction' state, indicating that rebound momentum is gradually weakening.
2. Significance of Bull-Bear Watershed: If $106,000 is broken and held, the daily MACD indicator may form a 'golden cross' (current DIF=-108.23, DEA=-348.71, MACD=480.96), initiating a four-hour level rebound; if it encounters resistance and falls back, the daily adjustment trend will continue.
3. Time Window Alert: Today's 17:15 (17:00-17:15) four-hour K-line close is a key point, need to pay attention to whether the closing price stands above $106,000. A breakthrough should be accompanied by a trading volume increase of more than 20% compared to the previous four hours.
II. Operational Strategy: High Short in the $105,500-$106,000 Range
• Entry Range: $105,500-$106,000 (build positions in batches based on resistance)
• Short-Term Target: $104,000 (retest 1-hour support)
• Long-Term Target: $100,000 integer mark (strong daily support)
• Defensive Stop Loss: Strictly set above $106,300 (stop loss if broken)
III. Risk Control and Market Interaction
1. Position Management: Single short position should not exceed 3%. If the four-hour K-line breaks $106,000, consider reversing to a light long position (position ≤ 2%) with a stop loss set at $105,500.
2. Impact of Macroeconomic Factors: Pay attention to the US CPI data tonight at 20:30. If inflation data exceeds expectations, it may strengthen the dollar and suppress Bitcoin's movement; conversely, if the data is below expectations, it may stimulate a rebound and breakthrough.
3. Indicator Coordination: The MACD indicator is currently in a low-level golden cross state (MACD=480.96). If the price encounters resistance and falls back, be cautious of the MACD 'top divergence' risk (i.e., price reaches a new high, but MACD does not).
IV. Core Strategy Logic
Adopt a 'high short trial and error' strategy at the key position of $106,000, essentially betting on the exhaustion of short-term rebound momentum. If broken, stop loss to acknowledge the mistake, following the principle of 'trend is king'; if encountering resistance and falling, seize the opportunity for profit on the pullback. Given the current market volatility, strict stop-loss management is essential to avoid holding losing positions.
