The downtrend of Bitcoin remains unchanged, with 106000 as a key level to continue shorting

Recently, the short strategy has achieved great success, with short positions around 106000 accurately hitting the market! Although there was a mild rebound in the market over the weekend (accumulating 1000-2000 points), 106100 USD has become a strong resistance in the short term, and the daily downtrend still dominates. Today, we will continue to rely on the resistance level to position short:

1. Trend Analysis and Resistance Logic

1. Daily bearish formation: Prices remain under pressure below the 5-day moving average (106800 USD), MACD death cross continues, green bars show no signs of shortening, and the RSI indicator hovers in the weak range of 45-50, indicating that the bears still hold the initiative.

2. Resistance range of 106000-106500:

◦ This range is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the previous wave's decline and rebound;

◦ A triple top formation has formed in the four-hour chart, with trading volume significantly shrinking during the rebound, indicating insufficient bullish momentum.

2. Operation Suggestion: Short in the 106000-106500 range

• Entry range: 106000-106500 USD (build positions in batches, with the first position not exceeding 2%)

• Short-term target: 105000 USD (testing intraday support)

• Long-term target: 102000 USD (strong daily support)

• Stop-loss: Strictly set above 107000 USD (a breakthrough would confirm a trend reversal)

3. Risk Control and Market Linkage

1. Monday Opening Effect: Pay attention to the capital flow after tonight's US stock market close. If the Dow Jones drops more than 1%, Bitcoin may accelerate its downward trend after Monday's opening. Short positions can be held over the weekend (position ≤ 3%).

2. Volatility Warning: The market has been frequently switching between long and short positions recently. If prices break above 107000 USD, be wary of a 'bear trap' and consider a light long position with a stop-loss set at 106000 USD.

3. Take Profit Strategy: As you approach the target level (such as 105500 USD), first close 50% of the position, and move the stop-loss of the remaining position to the cost price to aim for the long-term target.

4. Core Strategy Logic

Before the daily downtrend clearly reverses, shorting on rallies remains the main line. The 106000-106500 range serves as a key battleground for bulls and bears, gathering a large number of trapped positions and stop-loss orders, making breakthroughs challenging. Strictly follow the principles of 'light position, stop-loss, and batch take profit' in operations, and do not counter the trend.