Today, the market experienced a mild rebound, but the strength is limited, and after a gradual rise, it still shows fatigue. As Friday's close approaches, the 1-hour moving average system has formed a standard bearish arrangement, with bearish momentum continuing to strengthen. The continuity and aggressiveness of the downward trend are significant, compounded by a full outbreak of market risk aversion; the current decline more reflects characteristics of irrational emotional outburst.

One, Technical Analysis and Emotional Logic Interpretation

1. Bearish Arrangement Established: In the 1-hour chart, MA5, MA10, and MA20 are diverging downward in sequence, with prices continuously pressured below all moving averages, and the MACD green bars are continually expanding, indicating that the bears hold an absolute advantage.

2. Panic Emotion Dominates: The exchange's ETH inventory surged by 15% in 24 hours, and the panic index (VIX) has also skyrocketed. There are obvious signs of fund withdrawal, and short-term irrational selling may exacerbate volatility.

3. Wait for the bottoming signal: Only when panic selling volume shrinks after a surge, and a bullish engulfing or bottom divergence signal appears, can we confirm the weakening of bearish momentum. Currently, such signs have not been observed.

Two, Ethereum (ETH) Trading Recommendations

• Short Position Entry Range: $2630-$2660 (based on the 1-hour resistance level layout)

• Short-term Target Price: $2500 (testing prior low support)

• Swing Target Price: $2200 (strong support zone at the daily level)

• Defensive Stop Loss: Strictly set above $2680 (if breached, abandon the short position logic)

Three, Risk Control and Market Observation

1. Position Management: The position of a single short position should not exceed 5% of total funds, with stop-loss limits controlled within 2%-3% to avoid excessive losses caused by emotional fluctuations.

2. Correlation Effect: Pay attention to the fund flow after the US stock market closes. If the Dow Jones falls more than 2%, ETH may accelerate its decline; conversely, if the US stock market rebounds, one should be cautious of short covering leading to a short-term rebound.

3. Key Time Window: From 8-10 PM tonight is a period of intensive fund settlement, where a peak of panic selling may occur. One can consider increasing short positions during this time.

Four, Core Logic of the Strategy

The current market is in the 'emotion-driven decline' phase, and the oversold state of technical indicators may be overshadowed by panic emotions. Therefore, it is not advisable to bottom-fish too early; one should wait for the emotional outburst before considering a reversal. Strictly adhere to the principle of 'mainly short positions, quick in and out' until a clear signal of a bottoming out appears to adjust the strategy. #加密市场回调 $ETH