On June 17, 2025, the Ethereum (ETH) market showed a 'smoke bomb'-style short-term surge, with main funds using false bullish momentum to attract high-flying trades, while in reality, it concealed intentions for high-level selling. From the weekly trend, the market has continued to run unilaterally since Monday's opening, and the risks of chasing highs are extremely high. Based on technical indicators and capital flows, it is recommended to adopt a light position high short strategy.
I. Market characteristics and bull trap logic analysis
1. Short-term surge volume-price divergence:
◦ The price quickly rose from $2572 to $2671 (an increase of about 3.9%), but trading volume increased by only 12% compared to the previous hour, indicating insufficient upward momentum, characteristic of a typical 'volume-less rise';
◦ Large ETH transfers (>1000 ETH) on exchanges saw a net outflow of 23,000 ETH during the surge, indicating clear signs of main funds selling off as prices rise.
2. Risks in the weekly unidirectional market:
◦ The weekly ETH has closed with three consecutive bearish days; the MACD indicator has a death cross (DIF=1.46, DEA=8.87, MACD=-14.81), and the green bars continue to expand.
◦ The price has broken below the 5-week moving average (at $2750) and continues to decline, with the RSI indicator dropping quickly from 40 to 35, in an oversold but not yet stopping state.
II. Operational suggestions: Short in the 2670-2700 range
• Entry range: $2670-2700 (gradually building positions based on hourly resistance)
• Short-term target: $2500 (testing previous low support)
• Long-term target: $2200 (strong support area on the daily level)
• Defensive stop-loss: Strictly set above $2720 (if breached, abandon the short logic)
III. Technical indicators and key level references
1. Intraday signal:
◦ A 'shooting star' reversal pattern appeared on the 15-minute chart, with the price encountering resistance and retreating at $2671.55;
◦ The upper Bollinger Band is significantly pressuring (current upper band at $2690), the middle band (at $2620) and lower band (at $2550) are widening, indicating a bearish dominance.
2. Capital flow warning:
◦ On-chain data shows that in the past 24 hours, whale addresses (holding over 10,000 ETH) have net sold 18,000 ETH, while retail addresses' holdings increased by 65%, demonstrating a typical 'main force offloading, retail taking over' characteristic.
IV. Risk control and response strategies
1. Position management: Single short positions should not exceed 3% of total capital, as the weekly unidirectional market may accompany extreme volatility; full positions or holding without action is prohibited.
2. Flexible profit-taking adjustment:
◦ When approaching the short-term target (at $2550), first close 60% of the position to lock in profits;
◦ Remaining positions will have stop-loss moved to the break-even point, aiming for long-term targets. If the price rebounds and breaks through $2650, early profit-taking can be executed.
3. Attention to time window: The period from 20:00 to 22:00 tonight is the peak time for capital flow after US stock market opening. If the S&P 500 index falls over 1.5%, ETH may accelerate downward, during which short positions can be increased.
V. Core strategy tips
Currently, the Ethereum market exhibits significant 'bull trap' characteristics; do not be misled by short-term surges into chasing highs. With the weekly downtrend unchanged, the success rate of high short strategies is higher than that of bottom fishing. It is crucial to strictly adhere to the principles of 'light positions, stop-losses, and phased profit-taking' until clear signs of reversal, such as bullish engulfing or divergence at the bottom, appear.
