Special Note:
✅ BTC has the largest short position in history
✅ There has been no panic selling of BTC.
✅ $BTC 100+ whales sold (the largest in the past week);
✅ The number of short-term holders of BTC continues to decline while the holdings of long-term holders continue to rise
✅ The number of short-term holders of BTC is at a low level and has not formed a high-level exchange with long-term holders.
✅ Since April, long-term holders of BTC have accumulated a total of 1.5 million BTC.
✅ Continuous growth of BTC accumulation addresses.
✅ The profit and loss ratio of long-term holders of BTC has reached another peak.
✅ As BTC price declines, funding rates decrease, total positions decrease, and many long positions exit the market.
✅ Whale wallet addresses remain active.
✅ The trend of the amount of BTC deposited by whales to Binance is decreasing.
✅ Today's BTC spot ETF net inflow is $164.6M, ETH daily net inflow: $240.3M, reaching a new high in four months.
✅ Inflow of USD into the cryptocurrency market Daily net inflow: $110.23M
✅ Net inflow of fiat-supported stablecoins (USD stablecoins with market cap > 100M) Net inflow of fiat-supported stablecoins: $110.23M
✅ When Ethereum rises to 2900, $1.31 billion in shorts are liquidated. When Ethereum drops to 2700, $1.28 billion in longs are liquidated.
✅ The recent rise in BTC price may not necessarily be due to an increase in purchasing power, but rather a decrease in the amount being sold.
✅ On-chain data indicates no significant signs of institutions reducing their positions and exiting the market.
✅ Overall data shows that BTC has not yet reached a cyclical peak, with long-term holdings continuing to rise, and short-term funds still in a wait-and-see state. BTC has not yet become excessively inflated.
BTC has the largest short position in history
As BTC price declines, funding rates decrease, total positions decrease, and many long positions exit the market.
The number of short-term holders of BTC continues to decline while the holdings of long-term holders continue to rise.
The number of short-term holders of BTC is at a low level and has not formed a high-level exchange with long-term holders.
Long-term holders of BTC have accumulated a total of 1.5 million BTC since April.
The profit and loss ratio of long-term holders of BTC has reached another peak.
The trend of the amount of BTC deposited by whales to Binance is decreasing.
Global liquidity compared to Bitcoin price
The stock of Bitcoin on exchanges shows signs of stabilization after continuous large outflows.
** Interpretation of BTC inflow and outflow data
The inflow and outflow of BTC in exchange wallets are core on-chain indicators of the crypto market, directly reflecting the movement of major funds and market sentiment.
Inflow ↑ holders deposit BTC into exchanges increasing selling pressure caution against short-term declines
Outflow ↓ holders withdraw BTC from exchanges increasing willingness to accumulate/lock up indicating medium-term bullishness
1. Fear and Greed Index Today is: 61 Greed BTC remains in the greed phase after a correction.
** Interpretation of the greed and fear/greed index
The behavior of the cryptocurrency market is highly emotional. When the market rises, people tend to be greedy, feeling the fear of missing out; when the market falls, they irrationally sell their cryptocurrencies.
Using the fear and greed index to help friends minimize emotional influences and avoid irrational judgments.
There are two states:
Extreme fear indicates that investors are overly worried, which could be a buying opportunity.
Excessive greed indicates that investors are overly excited, and the market may undergo a correction.
2. Bitcoin's total market share is 62.67, basically unchanged from yesterday.
** Bitcoin's total market share is a core indicator of Bitcoin's relative influence in the entire cryptocurrency market. This indicator not only reflects Bitcoin's short-term market position but also reveals changes in fund rotation, investor sentiment, and macro trends.
Bitcoin's market share is a 'weather vane' for judging market stages:
Early Bull Market: Market share rises, funds prioritize allocation to Bitcoin.
Late Bull Market: Market share declines, funds rotate to altcoins, triggering 'altcoin season'
Market thermometer: >60% = risk aversion dominates; <40% = altcoin frenzy period.
Fund flow chart: Reveals the allocation preferences of institutions and retail investors (Bitcoin → stable, altcoins → high risk, high return)
3. Bitcoin and Ethereum trading pairs 0.25586 Ethereum to Bitcoin trading pair slightly retreats
** The Bitcoin/Ethereum trading pair is a 'risk thermometer' for the cryptocurrency market:
Rising ratio → Market favors high-risk assets (signal for starting altcoin season);
Falling ratio → Funds are seeking safety in Bitcoin (characteristics of bear market or early bull market).
4. ETF inflow and outflow data ETF data maintains a slight net inflow.
** Explanation of ETF inflow and outflow data: The inflow and outflow data of Bitcoin ETFs is a core indicator for tracking institutional sentiment, market trends, and fund rotations.
5. Statistics on on-chain BTC buying and selling data for retail investors, large holders, and institutions. Large whales are selling massively.
Thanks to @交易庞克大大 for providing data organization and sharing.
Data Description: Representing the increase or decrease of on-chain flow for ≤ 1 BTC, 1—10 BTC, 10—100 BTC, and 100+ BTC, this data can reflect a kind of market sentiment from retail investors, large holders, and institutions.
Data Description: This data reflects the increase or decrease of on-chain flow for ≤ 1 BTC, 1—10 BTC, 10—100 BTC, and 100+ BTC within a week. This data can intuitively reflect the liquidity trends of BTC among retail investors, large holders, and institutions.
When there is an extreme situation in on-chain data, a reversal often occurs (e.g., if large whales holding over 100 BTC are buying massively while others are selling, the probability of Bitcoin rising significantly increases, and conversely, the probability of falling increases). It is necessary to analyze in conjunction with other on-chain data and technical indicators.
6. MVRV realized market value ratio MVRV > 1
** Explanation of MVRV realized market value ratio indicator: The MVRV realized market value ratio is an indicator used to assess the cryptocurrency market (especially Bitcoin), which can help friends determine whether an asset is overvalued or undervalued and identify potential market tops and bottoms.
MVRV > 1
When the ratio is greater than 1, it indicates that the market price is above the realized price, meaning that most holders are in a profit state. This may suggest that the market is overheated, especially when the MVRV reaches historical highs, which could signal a market top.
MVRV < 1
When the ratio is less than 1, it indicates that the market price is below the realized price, meaning that most holders are in a loss state. This may suggest that the market is undervalued, especially when the MVRV reaches historical lows, which could signal a market bottom.
7. Altcoin Season Index 20 Is it in altcoin season: No It has slightly retreated since yesterday.
** Altcoin Season Index Explanation: The altcoin season index is an indicator used to measure the performance of non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies in the cryptocurrency market. It is generally used to determine whether altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin over a specific period, thus helping investors understand market trends and investment opportunities.
8. Inflow of USD into the cryptocurrency market Small inflow
9. Net inflow of fiat-supported stablecoins (USD stablecoins with market cap > 100M) Small inflow
10. The rainbow chart shows that BTC has not yet shown signs of peaking.
The above data represents a perspective from on-chain data to predict BTC volatility trends and market sentiment, and does not constitute any investment advice. Please make careful decisions!!
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