I am not publishing that article to scare you, just will provide facts and share my opinion. First I will share what can happen in the next 1,2 months, then I will discuss the short term. In today article we will focus on following topics:
Israel & Iran conflict & its Impact
FED Rate Cut
$BTC Technical Analysis
BTC Dominance
USDT Dominance
Personal Opinion
Israel & Iran conflict & its Impact
If we look at past data, whenever a war situation at high scale between two countries was created we saw a dump just like in 2024 april. Now the same thing is happening, Israel can attack Iran with the support of the USA that can cause a crash. US officials already declared a warning about that situation. This crash will be bigger than expectations because we got a straight upward move from $74K to $112K without any weekly retracement. Last time Iran Israel war caused almost 35-40% drop in #BTC . But this time it can go higher like 50% because the USA will be involved in it. So the main level that can act as an attractive level is the $65K - $70K zone.
In short words that conflict is looking bearish and we can see a $70K zone in the next 1-2 months. Now let’s discuss FED rate cuts.
FED Rate Cut
There are rumors FED will cut 100 pips policy/interest rate because Trump is forcing FED chair. Even with the fed cut rate, we will get an upward spike and then again a downward move. There is a question: why will the market go down when rate cuts even money will flow into risk assets? Here is answer:
The upward move we discussed will be just due to good news. Market is already at ATH. Smart money will have the best chance to take exit here. Then a downside move will be played out where retailers will sell off and smart money will again get a chance to buy at lower prices. Now let’s suppose the FED does not cut rates and keeps the same. Market will still take a dip because many traders are buying on just rate cut hopes that will impact them and we see sell off as a result. Now let’s discuss about #bitcoin technical analysis.
BTC Technical Analysis
If we look technically, BTC is forming a double top, the same as the previous cycle with a liquidity sweep candle. That is not enough, look at the second picture.
In the second picture a historic trend line has been drawn. Whenever BTC touch it we saw sell off atleast 32%. This time we are expecting up to 40% because avg downfall is around 50%. But it has not touched it yet. We can see a spike up to $116K after that sell off is expected.
BTC Dominance
If we look at #BTCdominance nothing changed as discussed a few weeks ago BTC Dominance will rise up to 67.50% and alts will bleed more maybe up to 40-50%.
USDT Dominance
USDT Dominance is also taking bounce from support so it can rise up to 5%++ that will also cause market bleeding. So nothing will be special if we see more bleeding in market in upcoming days.
Personal Opinion
If we conclude all above data we can see a short term upward spike that is less probable but I am looking at BTC at $65K- $70K zone in upcoming 1,2 months. As I shared a day ago I am out of the market 80% sold at $109K so I will play with short term moves when market drop will buy and will exit with tiny profits. No holding plan. I will keep sharing short term plans and do not forget to follow and engage with posts.
