Compiled: Plain Language Blockchain
The market is doing what it does best: testing your faith.
Altcoins continue to decline against BTC, with BTC dominance approaching cycle highs. Market sentiment is divided, with some watching coldly and others aggressively going long on low-cap coins.
This is not a signal to shout 'altcoin season' tomorrow, don't FOMO.
1. Yes, we are still in a bull market, but you are not late.
Bitcoin remains the main character. From ETF inflows to corporate allocations (GameStop, Trump Media, Strive), institutional confidence in BTC keeps its engine running hot.
This is also one of the reasons for the poor performance of altcoins—BTC has siphoned off most liquidity. Before this trend cools, ETH and large-cap coins won't take off, let alone low-cap coins.
The altcoin season will begin when BTC's dominance clearly declines, not while it is still consolidating at a cycle high.
2. Cycles are important, but market structure is equally critical.
Indeed, the crypto market generally follows a four-year cycle driven by BTC halving, liquidity conditions, and technology adoption cycles. From a big picture perspective, 2025 looks like the second half, where parabolic trends usually emerge.
But this is also a phase with frequent false signals. In 2021, altcoins surged after ETH surpassed BTC. What about now? ETH/BTC remains weak. If you jumped into low-cap coins before ETH flips, you came too early and have too much risk exposure.
A smarter approach is to accumulate strong assets. Track large-cap coins that show real accumulation (like $AAVE, $UNI, $LINK).
3. Short-term opportunities are better, but not confirmed yet.
It is right for traders to focus on key areas. Breaking through the upper range could ignite a high-beta altcoin rally, but position management requires discipline:
Use BTC as a trigger signal, not the trading target.
Spot accumulation on trending altcoins like $HYPE, $AAVE, $CRV, low risk.
Pay attention to ETH/BTC. Without ETH's strength, there is no real altcoin season, period.
4. No, you won't get rich overnight by 200 times.
True asymmetrical returns come from early positioning and heavily investing in narratives that genuinely attract attention:
On-chain perpetual contracts (Hyperliquid, Virtual)
ETH LRT protocols with real cash flow
DeFi projects conducting actual buybacks (AAVE)
Chain-native winners (Base, Solana, BNB—still not micro-cap coins)
The sequence for starting the altcoin season:
BTC hits an all-time high (completed).
ETH breaks through (pending).
Large-cap coins are rising (some signs).
Mid-cap coins follow up.
Low-cap coins take off vertically.
We are currently between Phase 1 and Phase 2.
Be patient and add positions during pullbacks.
