Compiled by: Blockchain in Plain Language.
After a turbulent start in 2025, Bitcoin reignited its upward momentum, breaking back into six figures, reminding investors why they could endure the volatility. However, with the momentum returning, a familiar saying resurfaces: 'Sell in May and go away.' This investment adage is traditionally associated with the stock market but is now being mentioned in the Bitcoin community as well. So, does this strategy hold water in the current market? Let’s delve into the data on seasonal trends, historical performance, and on-chain metrics to determine if exiting now is a wise strategy or if it could mean missing out on the biggest opportunity of this cycle.
Revisiting the argument of 'sell in May and go away.'
This investment strategy originates from traditional finance, suggesting to exit the market in May and return in November, as historical performance in summer months tends to be weak. The seasonal chart for Bitcoin does show that summer months (especially June to September) often perform poorly. However, broader performance data reveals a more nuanced story, particularly in the Bitcoin market.
Historically, the average returns in summer months are lower.
Applying this strategy to Bitcoin primarily relies on the years 2014, 2018, and 2022 when Bitcoin experienced deep, prolonged bear markets. In those years, summer months' returns undoubtedly performed poorly. But what if we exclude those bear market years from the dataset?
Performance after excluding bear markets.
When excluding bear market years, Bitcoin's average return in each month (including June to September) turns positive. Even September, historically the worst-performing month for Bitcoin, has an average return slightly in profit at +0.37%. October's average return is as high as 26%, historically one of the best-performing months for Bitcoin.
Excluding bear market years, the average return for each month is positive.
This reversal completely undermines the argument for selling in summer. The strategy seems reasonable only when deeply affected by a bear market cycle. In bull markets or neutral years, summer has significant upside potential.
The true cost of selling in May.
Compounded return analysis vividly illustrates this. Based on historical monthly performance, if you invested $100 from 2012 and held continuously (including summer), your compounded returns would now exceed $2 billion.
From a compounded return perspective, the 'sell in May' strategy has performed significantly worse than holding continuously.
But if you exit every May and avoid June to October, your final capital will only be $112 million, with returns nearly 18 times lower. Even if you only avoid June to September and return in October, the return will still significantly drop to $536 million, just a quarter of the continuous holding returns. Missing summer means missing the compounding growth effect of Bitcoin.
Will this summer be different?
From an on-chain metric perspective, particularly the MVRV Z-score, Bitcoin's structure remains healthy and is far from typical cycle peak levels. The current market landscape indicates that Bitcoin still has considerable room for upward movement, and if this cycle's rhythm resembles previous bull markets, the true peak may not occur until October or later.
The current MVRV Z-score of Bitcoin indicates that this cycle is far from peaking.
Now, abandoning positions based on 'typical' seasonal weakness expectations not only contradicts the data but may also force investors out of the market during the most explosive phase of the 2025 cycle.
Conclusion
While seasonal patterns should not be entirely disregarded, they must be analyzed in context, especially for macro-driven assets like Bitcoin. Bull market cycles, liquidity flows, global economic conditions, and investor behavior are far more important than the months on the calendar.
Bitcoin's cycles are primarily driven by supply and demand, and now, the summer of 2025 is likely to become a fervent period for Bitcoin, with historical patterns, momentum, and market structure dynamics all pointing to strong upside potential in the fourth quarter. Investors should not exit based on seasonal clichés but should closely monitor on-chain and macro indicators, focusing on long-term positioning.
