Daily Market Analysis in Crypto (05.26)
Summary:
1. Suggestions for medium and long-term operations in gold, as well as the underlying logic starting from this summer with yearly level movements.
2. There will be a large amount of U.S. debt maturing in June, making it hard to have a positive outlook for the June market. The steepening of long-term interest rates will lead to significant systemic risks in the long run.
3. Let's talk about xStocks.
4. Starting from Tuesday, the market will begin to turn downwards in the short term.
5. This downward move at the daily level may reach around June 11 if fast, or around June 26 if slow.
6. Currently, this upward move at the weekly level should only see a second buy in June, with no third buy appearing. The timing will also be compressed, likely peaking around mid-September, with a low probability of peaking in mid-October.
7. The second upward move at the daily level should see a rise greater than 50%. The peak of this bull market may have two possibilities: 129000/139000.
8. At the weekly/daily level, which moving average will be touched?
Operations:
1. In the short term:
There is still a small probability of reaching 113000, but the probability is not very high now, and regardless of whether the current upward move at the 1H level touches 113000, we should mainly focus on shorting.
If by 8 AM tomorrow, $BTC closes below 109800, then add a bit more to the short position, $ETH /$SOL in sync.
If by 8 AM tomorrow, Bitcoin closes above 109800, then short at 113000 / Ethereum 2748 / SOL 184.
If the daily level entity breaks below 106800, then add a bit more to the short position, ETH/SOL in sync.
2. In the medium term:
This downward move at the daily level will inevitably play out; Bitcoin will at least reach the daily MA250 line, which will likely move up to between 89000-90000 over time. Ethereum/SOL in sync, with Ethereum likely reaching around 2100 and SOL around 130.
3. In the medium to long term:
Buy at the daily MA250 with spot trading, allocating 1% position for 100x leverage long positions at EMA250, and another 1% position at MA350 for 100x leverage long positions.
Do not set a take profit for long positions; if the weekly closing entity breaks below the weekly MA/EMA60, manually stop loss.
Spot allocation: Bitcoin 60%, SOL 20%, Altcoins 20%.
Altcoin targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK, RENDER, VIRTUAL, SWARMS.
4. In the ultra-long term:
During the horizontal phase after Q3's main upward wave concludes, gradually build long-term short positions, with long-term shorts taking profit at 82500.
