Daily Market Analysis in Cryptocurrency (06.03)

Summary:

1. I just got home last night, and the rebates will start to be distributed tonight, at the latest by tomorrow.

2. Why should we be bearish on the U.S. stock market in June? The resonance of historical patterns and macroeconomic factors.

3. The probability of the U.S. stock market peaking this year is extremely high.

4. A reminder regarding the issues with U.S. Treasuries.

5. I still have a positive outlook on this year's natural gas market.

6. Bitcoin officially started a daily downtrend last Tuesday; the first 4-hour downtrend from this daily downtrend should have ended at 103000.

7. The current 4-hour rebound starting from 103000 might have already ended at 106500. Even if it hasn't, it may push up to 1068000 in the next day or two, and it will end at the latest by tomorrow night.

8. The next 4-hour downtrend will not be less than a drop of 10000 points, and it will likely find support around 94000.

9. The final stopping point for this daily downtrend is still anticipated to be around 90000.

10. When trading, everyone should be clear about the level they are operating at.

Operations:

1. Short-term:

Short at $BTC 106800, $ETH 2660, $SOL 165.

Stop loss at 108300, 2701,169.

Target at 95000, 2250, 136.

2. Medium-term:

Holding short positions; Bitcoin will at least reach the daily MA250 line. Over time, this position will likely rise to between 90000-91000, with Ethereum/SOL moving in sync; Ethereum is expected to reach around 2100, and SOL around 130.

3. Medium to long-term:

Buy spot at the daily MA250, and allocate 1% of the position to a 100x coin-based long position at EMA250, then allocate another 1% of the position to a 100x coin-based long position at MA350.

Do not set a take profit for long positions; if the weekly close's real body breaks below the weekly MA/EMA60, manually stop loss.

Spot allocation: Bitcoin 60%, SOL 20%, Altcoins 20%.

Altcoin targets: JTO, ONDO, SUI, SEI, STX, MKR, AAVE, TAO, RENDER, XLM, LINK, RENDER, VIRTUAL, SWARMS.

4. Long-term:

During the sideways phase after the main bullish wave in Q3, gradually build long-term short positions, with long-term shorts taking profit at 82500.