Macroeconomic Interpretation: The global financial market is undergoing an unprecedented wave of capital reallocation. Against the backdrop of an outflow of $1.8 billion from the US stock market and a record near ten-year net outflow of $2.9 billion from the gold market, #BTC has surprisingly staged a "tale of two cities". The astonishing net inflow of $934 million into spot Bitcoin ETFs in a single day not only set a new record high in four months but also sharply contrasted with the $856 million in value of 7,700 BTC that the Grayscale fund transferred out in a single day, revealing the complex position adjustments being made by institutional investors. This dramatic differentiation in capital flow coincides with a critical moment when US-EU trade negotiations are at an impasse—where the US Trade Representative's hardline demand for the EU to unilaterally cut tariffs meets Europe's staunch resistance on the digital tax issue. This struggle in the traditional economic sphere unexpectedly becomes a catalyst for the rise of crypto assets.

Geopolitical games are injecting new momentum into the cryptocurrency market. Trump's remarks at a crypto dinner in Virginia, although not breaking the existing policy framework, elevate the dominance of cryptocurrencies to the level of "national strategic security," which is quite significant. Particularly, the phrase "We must not let China gain the upper hand" suggests that crypto assets may become a new battleground in the tech competition among major powers. This political endorsement effect received immediate feedback in the derivatives market, where the Hyperliquid trading platform saw four investors accumulate a total of $1.188 billion in long positions, with the largest single position reaching 7,225 BTC. The aggressive operation with up to 40x leverage not only demonstrates market confidence but also plants the seeds of volatility risk. Interestingly, during the same period, 43% of TRUMP token holders reported losses, exposing the complex ecology of speculation and value investment coexisting in the crypto market.

Observing the evolution of market structure, this round of Bitcoin's rise exhibits characteristics distinctly different from historical cycles. During the process of breaking through $111,000 to set a new historical high, the average daily inflow into spot ETFs stabilized at hundreds of millions of dollars, which fundamentally differs from the futures-driven leverage formation during the bull market of 2021. Institutional behavior patterns revealed by capital research reports carry indicative significance: a potential allocation demand of $2.1 billion in perpetual preferred stock financing, combined with a large-scale buying spree of 130K call options in September, has constructed a multi-layered bullish mechanism. This transformation is corroborated by the technical aspects—Bitcoin completed a V-shaped rebound during the Asian trading session, precisely hedging against the traditional asset sell-off triggered by weak US Treasury auctions, showcasing its independence from traditional risk assets.

The marginal improvement in the regulatory environment is reshaping market expectations. Although the EU maintains an independent stance in digital tax negotiations, the ongoing approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission for spot ETFs objectively opens up a compliant channel for institutional funds. The frequent large transfers by the Grayscale fund suggest that market makers are building a more efficient liquidity network. This improvement in infrastructure contrasts interestingly with the moderate rise in implied volatility in the options market, indicating that investors both acknowledge the medium to long-term upward trend and engage in risk management through derivative tools. This rational game may become a stabilizer for the healthy development of the market.

Looking ahead, three major dynamics will dominate Bitcoin's trend. Firstly, the risk aversion demand brought about by geopolitical economic fractures, as escalating US-EU trade frictions may accelerate the diversification of global reserve assets. Secondly, the structural transformation of institutional allocation, with sustained inflows from long-term capital like pensions through ETF channels solidifying the price foundation. Lastly, the practical implementation of technological innovations, such as the commercialization of second-layer solutions like the Lightning Network, could trigger a true storage value revolution. However, caution is warranted regarding the chain reaction triggered by concentrated high-leverage position liquidations and the potential fluctuations in regulatory policies during Trump's term. When Bitcoin's market capitalization surpasses silver, becoming one of the top six asset categories globally, the contest between traditional finance and the crypto economic model may have only just begun.

BTC Data Analysis:

CoinAnk data shows that yesterday, the US spot Bitcoin ETF market experienced a surge in capital inflow, with a single-day fundraising scale exceeding $930 million, setting the highest single-day record since January 2025. Among them, BlackRock's IBIT fund dominated with a net inflow of $877 million, accounting for 93.8% of the total scale, while Fidelity's FBTC and Ark's ARKB contributed $48.66 million and $8.9 million respectively. This phenomenon continues the strong performance of the IBIT fund since the beginning of the year, with its assets under management now accounting for nearly half of the market, demonstrating institutional investors' concentrated preference for leading ETF products.

From a market impact perspective, the large-scale capital inflow strengthens Bitcoin's asset allocation attributes. The total amount of Bitcoin held by ETFs continues to approach the scale of Satoshi Nakamoto's wallet, highlighting the accelerated institutionalization of cryptocurrencies. The current total net asset value of ETFs has surpassed $121 billion, accounting for nearly 6% of Bitcoin's total market capitalization. This structural change provides additional liquidity to the market. Historical data shows a significant positive correlation between ETF fund flows and Bitcoin prices, with sustained inflows often pushing prices past key resistance levels. For instance, in May 2024, when ETFs saw continuous inflows for 18 days, Bitcoin's price broke above $71,000. Notably, exchange Bitcoin reserves have recently dropped to a seven-year low, combined with continued ETF accumulation, which may exacerbate market supply-demand imbalances and create favorable conditions for price increases. However, caution is advised regarding excessive concentration risk in the market, as fund movements in leading funds could trigger short-term volatility.