Macroeconomic interpretation: At the macroeconomic level, the dual game of U.S. fiscal policy has become a key variable affecting crypto assets. Credit Suisse points out that the trend of U.S. Treasury yields is facing a tug-of-war between "fiscal sustainability" and "global capital flows." With the (GENIUS stablecoin bill) making breakthrough progress in the Senate, the phenomenon of 15 Democratic lawmakers switching sides to support it suggests the irreversibility of the legislative process. If this bill is ultimately implemented, it will not only establish the legal status of USD stablecoins but may also create hundreds of billions of dollars in Treasury purchase demand annually through a mandatory reserve mechanism. This policy arbitrage space has caught the attention of Wall Street, as JPMorgan analysts observe that the capital of technological innovation in the new economy and crypto assets are showing synchronous expansion, especially forming a cross-market capital siphon effect between AI computing power investments and Bitcoin mining infrastructure.
After Bitcoin broke through the 111,000 USD threshold, its total market capitalization first reached 2.2 trillion USD, with 24-hour trading volume climbing to 71.68 billion USD. Behind this seemingly simple price breakthrough lies a deep coupling of multiple factors, including institutional investment model innovation, global monetary policy interlinkage, and the establishment of regulatory frameworks. Notably, the open interest of CME Bitcoin contracts remains at 18.23 billion USD, significantly premium compared to spot exchanges like Binance, marking that the participation depth of traditional financial institutions has surpassed that of crypto-native capital.
On the level of capital flow, the phenomenon of institutional regular investment is reshaping the market supply and demand pattern. Unlike the emotional trading of retail investors, systematic funds exceeding 10 billion USD are flowing into the Bitcoin market at a fixed weekly frequency. This ETF-like allocation strategy effectively smooths price fluctuations. On-chain data shows that since the LUNA crash event, the reserves of Bitcoin on centralized exchanges have been reduced by 85%, currently maintaining a liquidity level of only 426,000 coins, creating a stark contrast with the continuously growing institutional holdings. This structural shortage is particularly evident in the derivatives market, where the total open interest of Bitcoin contracts across the network has surpassed 80.8 billion USD, with nearly 40% of the positions concentrated on regulated platforms like CME, reflecting that institutional investors are establishing strategic positions through compliant channels.
Changes in the microstructure of the market are also worth noting. After the severe sell-off at the end of 2024, the share of profitable addresses in the Ethereum ecosystem achieved a deep V rebound from 32% to 60% within five months, marking the highest volatility intensity since 2017. Although the drastic fluctuations of ETH have diverted some market attention, the narrative of Bitcoin as "digital gold" is gaining broader recognition. In the context of China's new economic transformation, there is an interesting contrast between the AI industry supported by government-directed credit and the construction of crypto infrastructure relying on global capital's spontaneous allocation, which precisely confirms the "anti-intervention" property value of Bitcoin.
At the current point in time, the Bitcoin market is facing three major catalytic resonances: First, the institutional dividends brought by stablecoin legislation may trigger exponential expansion of fiat currency channels; second, the structural contradictions in the U.S. Treasury market force institutions to seek uncorrelated asset allocations; finally, the digital reconstruction of the global payment system is enhancing the monetary network value of Bitcoin. It is particularly noteworthy that the premium of CME Bitcoin contracts continues to widen, which is often seen as a leading indicator of professional capital hedging operations. If combined with the continuous depletion of exchange balances, the market may have entered the eve of "liquidity tightening," where this supply-demand imbalance could drive Bitcoin into a new price discovery phase after breaking historical highs. For investors, while enjoying the joy of new highs, it is also crucial to be vigilant about the short-term risks brought by amplified volatility, as any black swan event could trigger a chain reaction when both the leverage of open contracts and spot liquidity reach extremes.
BTC Data Analysis:
According to CoinAnk data, as of May 22, 2025, the Bitcoin derivatives market has shown significant expansion, with the total open positions across the network exceeding 724,200 BTC, with a nominal value of 8.082 billion USD, and a daily increase of nearly 19%, setting a new historical peak. Among them, CME holds 163,400 BTC (18.23 billion USD), occupying 22.55% of the market share, while Binance ranks second with 122,100 BTC (13.64 billion USD). This data reflects a continuous breakthrough growth compared to 43.3 billion USD in October 2024 and 34.48 billion USD in January 2025, indicating a sustained deepening of market participation.
From a market structure analysis, CME's dominant position highlights the deep involvement of institutional funds, and its standard contract design (each representing 5 BTC) combined with micro contracts attracts professional investors, especially those circumventing the risks of directly holding crypto assets through cash settlement mechanisms. Research shows that the surge in open interest is positively correlated with Bitcoin price volatility, and a high-leverage environment may exacerbate liquidation risks. Although current market sentiment leans towards optimism, it is essential to be cautious about the systemic pressure arising from increased position concentration. Historical data shows that after open interest breaks historical highs, the market often enters a short-term adjustment phase to digest excessive leverage.
For the crypto market, the institutional-led expansion of the derivatives market has not only enhanced liquidity but also injected mature factors into the price discovery mechanism. However, it is important to note that the market share competition between CME and Binance (where CME surpassed Binance with a 24.87% market share in February 2025) reflects the long-term game between regulatory compliance and offshore trading models. Additionally, the inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs (such as over 12 billion USD accumulated in 2024) and the synergistic effects of the derivatives market may further amplify market volatility. It is recommended that investors pay attention to divergence signals between open interest and price trends to guard against liquidity shocks in a high-leverage environment.