The U.S. Senate has passed the procedural vote for the GENIUS Act; 99% of BTC holders are in profit!
Macro interpretation: The U.S. Senate yesterday passed the procedural vote for the GENIUS Act with a bipartisan vote of 66 to 32, which will next enter the debate and amendment stage in the Senate. This event may become a watershed moment for the development of the crypto market. The bill establishes a federal regulatory framework for stablecoins for the first time, with market analysis placing its significance above the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, viewing it as a sign of 'the marriage between Wall Street and the crypto industry.' It is noteworthy that the support of 16 Democratic senators crossing party lines reflects a reevaluation of the strategic value of crypto assets in the U.S. political arena. The establishment of a regulatory framework not only clears obstacles for institutional capital entry but may also trigger a re-evaluation of Ethereum, Solana, and other mainstream public chains, as well as DeFi protocols like Uniswap and Aave—compared to Bitcoin, a 'digital gold' asset, regulatory clarity has a more catalytic effect on the value release of application-layer projects.
The market structure is undergoing profound transformation. Monitoring data indicates that the open interest of #BTC has reached a historical peak of $72 billion, but the funding rate for perpetual contracts remains close to zero, indicating that the current rise is mainly driven by spot buying. This 'low leverage' characteristic sharply contrasts with the cycle of 2021, suggesting a healthier market foundation. On-chain data corroborates this change: statistics show that currently, 99% of Bitcoin holders are in profit, but the 30-day moving average of the UTXO profit-loss ratio has crossed the threshold of 200, implying that the market has consumed most of the 'easy rising' momentum. Subsequent breakouts will require stronger capital inflows or significant fundamental stimuli; relying solely on existing capital for speculation is unlikely to sustain a steep upward curve.
Institutional behavior has become a key variable affecting short-term trends. Bitcoin faced resistance when it approached the $110,000 mark, with continued buying from listed companies like Strategy and Metaplanet forming the core support for current prices. Japanese company Metaplanet, as a barometer for the Asian market, saw its stock price rise by 158% this month, resonating with its ongoing accumulation of Bitcoin. It is worth noting that these institutions may play the role of 'marginal buyers'—when their balance sheet allocations approach saturation, the market may face a liquidity vacuum. The merger case of Nasdaq-listed Kindly MD with Bitcoin-native company Nakamoto Holdings reveals an innovative path for traditional industries to enter the crypto space through capital operations; this 'de facto ETF' model may give rise to more cross-market arbitrage opportunities.
The macroeconomic level presents a complex competitive landscape. The statement by Federal Reserve official Daly that 'policy is in a good state' has temporarily eased market concerns about aggressive interest rate hikes; however, the risks of stagflation in the U.S. economy and geopolitical conflicts are still driving up demand for safe-haven assets. The blockage of the tax cut legislation promoted by Trump has exposed the uncertainty of U.S. fiscal policy, and this macro volatility objectively strengthens Bitcoin's narrative as a safe-haven asset. From the perspective of capital flow, against the backdrop of the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to a high of 4.5%, Bitcoin has maintained price resilience, confirming its gradual detachment from the risk asset camp and evolving into an independent asset class in market perception.
Looking ahead, the institutional dividends brought by regulatory breakthroughs and the demand for institutional allocation create long-term benefits, but the short-term overbought pressure indicated by technical indicators cannot be ignored. For ordinary investors, two dimensions need to be closely monitored: firstly, the specific provisions of the final version of the GENIUS Act regarding stablecoin issuance reserves, cross-chain transactions, and other terms, as these details will determine the compliance space for the DeFi ecosystem; secondly, the changes in Bitcoin holdings disclosed in the financial reports of listed companies, as micro-level institutional operational strategies may amplify price volatility. Historical experience shows that when the market completes the transition from speculation-driven to value storage, it is often accompanied by violent fluctuations and cognitive reconstruction—whether Bitcoin can break the cyclical curse may depend on its demonstrated anti-fragility in this competition.
BTC Data Analysis:
According to CoinAnk data, on May 21, 2025, the open interest of Bitcoin contracts surged to a historic high of $72 billion, but the funding rate for perpetual contracts remained close to neutral levels, indicating a balance in the long-short competition. Currently, nearly 99% of Bitcoin addresses in the market are in profit, but the 30-day moving average of the UTXO profit-loss ratio has broken the critical value of 200, suggesting that the market has digested the impetus from the previous rapid rise and is entering a momentum conversion phase.
From a market structure perspective, the surge in futures open interest is often associated with amplified price volatility. Historical data shows that when this indicator breaks previous highs, it is often accompanied by large-scale liquidation risks. Although institutional participation continues to rise (with CME accounting for over 30%), and spot ETF capital inflows support market confidence, the funding rate for perpetual contracts has not strengthened simultaneously, indicating a cooling of leveraged speculation. It is noteworthy that the breakthrough of the UTXO profit-loss ratio threshold is similar to warning signals in the 2024 bull market cycle, reflecting that the accumulation of short-term profits may trigger selling pressure. In summary, the market may enter a phase of consolidation and adjustment, requiring vigilance against drastic fluctuations under high open interest; however, in the medium to long term, institutional capital inflows and the supply-demand relationship during the halving cycle still provide fundamental support for Bitcoin.
