The contract position size of #BTC has climbed to a historic high of 72 billion USD, but the perpetual contract funding rate remains close to neutral, indicating a balance in the long-short battle. According to CoinAnk data, nearly 99% of Bitcoin addresses in the current market are in profit, but the 30-day moving average of the UTXO profit-loss ratio indicator has breached the critical value of 200, suggesting that the market has digested the momentum from the previous rapid rise and entered a stage of momentum transition.

From a market structure perspective, the surge in futures open interest is often associated with increased price volatility. Historical data shows that when this indicator breaks past highs, it is often accompanied by large-scale liquidation risks. Despite the current increase in institutional participation (such as CME's share exceeding 30%) and the influx of spot ETF funds supporting market confidence, the perpetual contract funding rate has not strengthened accordingly, indicating a convergence in leveraged speculation enthusiasm. It is noteworthy that the UTXO profit-loss ratio breaking the threshold is similar to warning signals in the 2024 bull market cycle, reflecting that the accumulation of short-term profits may trigger selling pressure. Overall, the market may enter a phase of consolidation, and caution should be exercised regarding severe fluctuations under high open interest, but in the medium to long term, institutional capital inflows and the supply-demand relationship of the halving cycle still provide fundamental support for Bitcoin.