May 16th, Feige's Currency Talk
Fundamentals:
1. FTX's main repayment will begin on May 30, with total distributed funds exceeding $5 billion. Due to FTX needing to sell assets to raise compensation funds, it may exert selling pressure on the market in the short term; the mid-term impact could increase market liquidity as compensation funds return to the market; in the long term, it will help restore investor confidence in the cryptocurrency market.
2. Hackers have been able to access Coinbase customer data since January this year, and Coinbase expects the data breach to result in losses of up to $400 million.
3. Federal Reserve's Barr: Supply chain disruptions related to tariffs could lead to slower economic growth and rising inflation.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: The overall trend on the daily line continues to maintain within an oscillating upward channel, currently in the adjustment phase after the third stage of the rise, with prices nearing the densely traded area near historical highs. It is worth noting that recently in the entire market, Bitcoin is oscillating at high levels, while altcoins are collectively experiencing a pullback of about 20%. This combination of signals indicates a decline in market risk appetite, with funds flowing from altcoins back to BTC for hedging. If this sideways period lasts too long and trading volume remains weak, it could easily form a top signal. On the 4-hour line, yesterday's dip rebounded near Tuesday's low, with the market oscillating within the 105-101 range. If it doesn't break, there's no need to overly speculate on the direction of price movements; just wait for the market's directional choice. For intraday operations, key attention should be on the pressure at the 1048-1058 position above and the support at the 1015-1005 position below!
ETH: The half-year line (purple line) above the daily line shows significant resistance. It surged and then fell back the previous day, and yesterday continued to test and rebound from the support of the 7-day moving average on the daily line. Currently, the K-line is positioned above the average support. The overall upward momentum has entered an arc top state, and the daily line trend awaits a phase adjustment. From the 4-hour line, after a recent new high, the overall trend shows a slight oscillation and a small downward trend, with the rebound highs gradually decreasing. For intraday operations, key attention should be on the pressure at the 2600-2640 position above and the support at the 2510-2480 position below.
Altcoins: This week, altcoins have collectively entered a correction phase, with some healthy altcoins experiencing a pullback of around 20%, which is a normal adjustment. However, some weaker altcoins have pulled back more than 30%, and these altcoins should not be considered when the next buying opportunity arises. Currently, there are no buying signals for the altcoins' pullback; continue to wait for clearer opportunities!
He Yue: It was clearly stated yesterday to pay attention to the support at the 1015 position below Bitcoin, and yesterday's lowest retracement reached the 1013 position. For Ethereum, the support at the 2480 position below should be noted, with yesterday's lowest retracement at 2476. The overall trend basically meets expectations. For intraday operations, focus on the upper research report explanations; the current bearish mindset can only serve as a tentative operation, attempting to seize the first opportunity, while ensuring proper risk management!
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; exercise caution when entering the market. This is a personal opinion, not advice, for sharing purposes only.
