Fundamentals:
1. There has been no progress in US-EU trade negotiations, and the EU is expected to maintain tariffs. Due to the deadlock in US-EU trade negotiations, investor sentiment is cautious. The three major US stock indices have collectively declined, and the crypto market has weakened. Bitcoin has dropped over 3000 points in 12 hours. The trade war continues to cast a shadow over the market, and the uncertainty of maintaining tariffs exacerbates global economic slowdown concerns.
2. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in May is 81.4%;
Technical Analysis:
BTC: Yesterday's research report focused on the recent formation of a high point around the 86 line, showing a slow rise followed by a quick sell-off. Combined with the current market environment, this is mostly a behavior of raising prices to sell. Yesterday, I highlighted the bearish signal on the 4-hour chart. After a surge last night, the overall market trend was not the rapid sell-off seen in previous days but rather a slow decline, providing very precise short positions at the 858-868 range. Looking down, support is seen at the 83 line; if this position is broken, the short-term market may revisit the previous low point at the 75 line. Currently, the overall trend is largely in line with expectations. On the daily level, once again, the price surged and fell back while facing resistance from an entity bearish candle, currently near the recent low support around the 83 line. The daily chart should focus on the bearish trend opening fully after breaking below the 83 line. On the 4-hour chart, this rebound touched the yearly line and started to decline. Currently, there has been a slight rebound in the three consecutive bearish candles, with intraday operations focusing on a bearish outlook during the rebound. In terms of intraday operations, pay close attention to the resistance at the 84-85 positions above and the support at the 825-815 positions below.
ETH: Yesterday, it was mentioned that Ethereum has entered a bottoming phase. This process may take about three months, during which Ethereum is unlikely to experience significant upward movement, mostly maintaining a large range of fluctuations to achieve a more concentrated chip distribution. On the daily chart, the K-line is under pressure from the 14-day moving average above, with a small bullish candle forming after a high pullback the day before, and another high pullback resulting in a bearish candle yesterday, indicating very weak rebound strength. If Bitcoin opens up the anticipated bearish trend, Ethereum's bottom could be around 1100 points. Looking at the 4-hour chart, there are currently consecutive small bearish candles, and no large volume drops have occurred yet; the 4-hour chart still has room to continue declining. In terms of intraday operations, pay close attention to the resistance at the 1600-1630 positions above and the support at the 1550-1520 positions below.
Altcoins: Yesterday, it was made clear to maintain a cautious stance with no positions. Ethereum is in a bottoming phase, and before the market takes off, altcoins will still see lower points. Similar to the market from early August to early November last year, Ethereum is bottoming for three months. During this three-month period, the overall trend of altcoins is a downward fluctuation, continuously creating new lower points. After high-intensity shakeouts, the market welcomed the November rally. The market will never lack opportunities; what is always lacking is patience. Cherish the chips in hand with patience to strike hard when the opportunity arises.
He Yue: Binance's He Yue copy trading currently has a win rate of 34:4, and there is currently a short position on Bitcoin. In He Yue trading, light positions are the bottom line; do not treat He Yue as spot trading, and do not treat your position as faith. You never know when the next K-line will liquidate you. Leverage does not increase returns; it amplifies results!
The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; caution is required when entering the market. This is a personal opinion, not advice, for sharing purposes only.