Fundamentals:
1. Powell: The independence of the Federal Reserve is not influenced by politics; the impact of tariffs on inflation may be more lasting; the labor market is stable, maintaining balance; artificial intelligence is in its early stages; don’t expect the Federal Reserve to step in to save the market, Trump changes every day; cryptocurrencies are gradually becoming mainstream, and bank regulation will experience 'some easing'.
2. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in May is 83.2%;
3. After Powell's speech, US stocks began to widen their declines, the three major indices continued to fall and closed with large bearish candlesticks. Gold continued to hit new highs, and Bitcoin fell before rebounding.
Technical Analysis:
BTC: After Powell's speech at midnight, Bitcoin quickly fell by over 2500 points within half an hour. He later mentioned that cryptocurrencies are gradually becoming mainstream and that regulation is easing, leading to a rapid rebound of over 1000 points for Bitcoin. From a daily perspective, it repeatedly tested the 83 line yesterday without breaking it, and the European and American markets entered a rebound. From the recent candlestick layout, the support at the 83 line is very strong, while the highs are decreasing. The daily opening is below the 7-day moving average, and the daily price is oscillating at a relatively high position in the 83-86 range. On the 4-hour chart, last night's rebound formed a recent relative high point at the 1680 line, and it is currently showing a small downward trend. For today's operations, key resistance is at the 845-855 positions above, and key support is at the 825-815 positions below.
ETH: Yesterday's performance of Ethereum was basically in line with expectations, rising to around 1610 and falling to around 1540, overall fluctuations were within the expected range. The daily candlestick is slowly moving down below the moving averages, with the 14-day moving average continuing to extend downwards, overall maintaining a trend of oscillating downward, but the decline is gradually shrinking. The 4-hour chart formed a recent relative high point at the 1680 line, and it is currently showing a small downward trend. For today's operations, key resistance is at the 1600-1630 positions above, and key support is at the 1550-1520 positions below.
Altcoins: In recent days, the overall trend of altcoins has been slowly and continuously correcting, but the decline is gradually shrinking. The daily price is in a state of downward trend, with the basic movement synchronized with Ethereum. The best entry point for altcoins has not yet arrived, and it is advisable to focus more on Ethereum's rebound signals and continue to maintain a cautious stance. Future trends can focus on popular strong coins in sectors such as artificial intelligence, gaming, and meme coins; specific details will be mentioned in future research reports!
HeYue: Binance HeYue's current win rate is 34:4. Bitcoin's short position is currently held, anticipating that Bitcoin will break below 83 and open a bearish trend. HeYue trading: understanding the risks is the basic principle that allows you to trade and hold positions confidently. Hedging and arbitrage are basic methods to avoid short-term market volatility!
The cryptocurrency market is volatile, proceed with caution, personal opinion, not a suggestion, for sharing only.
