#美国加征关税 #山寨币交易 #山寨季何时到来 #贸易战缓和 #加密圆桌会议要点 $BTC $SOL $ETH 2025 Bull Market Prelude: The Hidden Secrets Behind the US Stock Market Frenzy and Cryptocurrency's Dormancy
As the Nasdaq surges 7.3% in a week to reach a historical high, Bitcoin remains trapped in a $105,000 fluctuation—on the eve of the 2025 super bull market, capital is enacting an epic strategic shift.
Policy Compass Shift: The Catalyst for the Bull Market
Trump's "three strikes" in May (suspending tariffs, supporting Powell, abandoning re-election) combined with unexpectedly strong economic data precisely replicate the conditions for the bull market to begin in 2024. Although the US-China joint statement has been questioned as a "2018 reoccurrence", algorithms show: the current manufacturing PMI (54.2) and the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repo (0.43 trillion) combination resembles the liquidity dam before the 2023 Silicon Valley Bank crisis, laying the groundwork for an explosive rate cut cycle in 2025.
Bitcoin's Accumulation: The Silent Advance of a Trillion Dollar Market Cap
The seemingly stagnant price conceals hidden secrets:
1. On-chain Whales: Addresses holding over a thousand coins increased their holdings by 123,000 BTC in April, setting a single-month record since 2021.
2. Options Layout: The open interest for 65,000 call options due June 2025 reached $7.4 billion, with a 38% premium over spot.
3. Ecological Evolution: After the activation of the RGB++ protocol, the Bitcoin L2 locked positions surged by 570% in half a month, technically breaking the constraints of the 2021 cycle.
Historical Spiral: Quantum Entanglement of Bull and Bear Transitions
The current differentiation pattern resembles March 2020: while traditional capital revels in the V-shaped recovery of the US stock market, smart money is eagerly absorbing Bitcoin through Hong Kong ETFs. Glassnode's on-chain indicators show that the Bitcoin MVRV ratio has entered the "golden buy zone", resonating with the implied 300 basis points rate cut space of the 2025 CME interest rate futures.
The true script of the market is being written in the shadows: when the Fed is forced to pivot in June, the dormant 65,000 Bitcoin futures short positions may become the ultimate fuel to ignite the bull market of 2025. This moment of silence is the most deceptive calm before the storm.
