#美国加征关税 #代币发射平台竞争加剧 #币安Alpha上新 #CPI数据来袭 #加密圆桌会议要点 $BTC $ETH $SOL Crypto Market Observation | Beware of Altcoin Frenzy: Historical Patterns and the Game of the 2025 Bull Market

Bitcoin broke through $104,000 on May 9, entering the top five global assets by market cap, igniting market enthusiasm. Although some altcoins have surged over 50% in a week, it is not a good time to chase blindly; three key signals must be heeded:

1. Bitcoin cycle has not reached its ultimate goal, capital siphoning effect still exists

Historical patterns show that altcoin celebrations must wait for BTC to complete its main upward wave and stabilize. Although BTC has surpassed $100,000, it is still short of the $120,000 target expected by some analysts. On-chain data shows that institutional capital continues to flow into Bitcoin ETFs, with a weekly net inflow of $1.8 billion, while miner output is only 1/6 of this, and market liquidity is still dominated by BTC.

2. Public chains and platform coins have not fully started, rotation chain is incomplete

Altcoin trends usually follow the rotation logic of “BTC → public chains/exchange tokens → long-tail altcoins.” Although ETH, BNB, and others have risen, the Ethereum/BTC exchange rate is still at a six-year low, and the Layer 2 sector (such as ARB, OP) has yet to explode, with no comprehensive signals for a rebound in the market.

3. Leverage risk and differentiation between new and old projects intensify

The funding rate for altcoin perpetual contracts is as high as 0.3% per day, reaching a peak since 2021, creating liquidation risks with high leverage. At the same time, institutional capital is more inclined to allocate new narrative assets (such as AI + blockchain, compliant IDO projects) rather than old coins from the previous cycle.

Strategy recommendations:

- Maintain core positions in BTC + ETH (70%), allocate platform coins like BNB (20%), and reserve flexible funds to capture new project dividends;

- Monitor institutional targets for increased holdings (such as AAVE, LTC) and technological innovation sectors (ZK, DePIN);

- Beware of high-volatility MEME coins, prioritize participation in audited presale projects (such as Solaxy, MIND), and adhere to the principle of “buying new, not old.”

When exchanges begin to list pet coins in bulk, that may be the true risk warning.

A saying in the crypto circle is to invest in new coins, not old ones 牛市起飞meme社区交流群