西门二少爷
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Ethereum Breakthrough Moment: The Bull-Bear Battle Behind the $2500 Offensive
After a lengthy 142-day consolidation around the $2000 mark, Ethereum suddenly launched a lightning strike last night, briefly breaking through the psychological barrier of $2500 before retreating to the $2470-$2480 range. This $8.2 billion offensive and defensive battle reflects the fierce game between the old and new forces in the crypto market.
Fierce Battle at the $2500 Mark
The bulls revealed three trump cards:
1. ETF Countdown: BlackRock's revised S-1 filing shows its Ethereum spot ETF custody fee is as low as 0.2%, significantly better than Grayscale's ETHE product.
2. DeFi Recovery: The total locked value (TVL) in Layer 2 increased by 12% weekly to $47.8 billion, with Base chain's daily transaction count exceeding 2 million, setting a historical record.
3. Whale Accumulation: Addresses holding more than 10,000 coins increased their holdings by 6.2% of circulating supply over the past 30 days, with on-chain chip concentration reaching the highest level since September 2022.
The bears, meanwhile, deployed three layers of defense:
Technical Pressure: $2500 is precisely the accumulation zone before the Terra collapse in May 2022, with derivative data showing that this price level is concentrated with $930 million in open options contracts.
Liquidity Trap: The funding rate for perpetual contracts on centralized exchanges skyrocketed to 0.18%, indicating overheating in leveraged longs.
Regulatory Sword of Damocles: The SEC's enforcement action hearing against Consensys is scheduled for May 15, which may trigger panic selling reminiscent of the 2023 XRP lawsuit.
On-chain data hides mysteries: Glassnode monitoring shows that in the past 72 hours, $470 million worth of ETH futures short positions were liquidated, while the net inflow to spot exchanges surged by 38,000 coins. This 'double kill' pattern of bulls and bears is reminiscent of the chip turnover before the $5000 breakthrough in November 2021. The current market must be vigilant: if the battle for $2500 evolves into a prolonged war of attrition, Ethereum may return to the neckline position of $2300 to complete a weekly bottom formation.
This breakthrough is not only about the contest over technical levels but also a crucial test for the 'Ethereum Value Capture 2.0' narrative—when the Cancun upgrade meets the halving cycle, can it leverage the ETF tailwind to start an independent trend? The next two weeks may reveal the answer.
After a lengthy 142-day consolidation around the $2000 mark, Ethereum suddenly launched a lightning strike last night, briefly breaking through the psychological barrier of $2500 before retreating to the $2470-$2480 range. This $8.2 billion offensive and defensive battle reflects the fierce game between the old and new forces in the crypto market.
Fierce Battle at the $2500 Mark
The bulls revealed three trump cards:
1. ETF Countdown: BlackRock's revised S-1 filing shows its Ethereum spot ETF custody fee is as low as 0.2%, significantly better than Grayscale's ETHE product.
2. DeFi Recovery: The total locked value (TVL) in Layer 2 increased by 12% weekly to $47.8 billion, with Base chain's daily transaction count exceeding 2 million, setting a historical record.
3. Whale Accumulation: Addresses holding more than 10,000 coins increased their holdings by 6.2% of circulating supply over the past 30 days, with on-chain chip concentration reaching the highest level since September 2022.
The bears, meanwhile, deployed three layers of defense:
Technical Pressure: $2500 is precisely the accumulation zone before the Terra collapse in May 2022, with derivative data showing that this price level is concentrated with $930 million in open options contracts.
Liquidity Trap: The funding rate for perpetual contracts on centralized exchanges skyrocketed to 0.18%, indicating overheating in leveraged longs.
Regulatory Sword of Damocles: The SEC's enforcement action hearing against Consensys is scheduled for May 15, which may trigger panic selling reminiscent of the 2023 XRP lawsuit.
On-chain data hides mysteries: Glassnode monitoring shows that in the past 72 hours, $470 million worth of ETH futures short positions were liquidated, while the net inflow to spot exchanges surged by 38,000 coins. This 'double kill' pattern of bulls and bears is reminiscent of the chip turnover before the $5000 breakthrough in November 2021. The current market must be vigilant: if the battle for $2500 evolves into a prolonged war of attrition, Ethereum may return to the neckline position of $2300 to complete a weekly bottom formation.
This breakthrough is not only about the contest over technical levels but also a crucial test for the 'Ethereum Value Capture 2.0' narrative—when the Cancun upgrade meets the halving cycle, can it leverage the ETF tailwind to start an independent trend? The next two weeks may reveal the answer.
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