#美国加征关税 #代币发射平台竞争加剧 #币安Alpha上新 #CPI数据来袭 #加密圆桌会议要点 $BTC $ETH $SOL 牛市起飞meme社区交流群 Crypto Market Weekly Report｜Extreme Volatility Under Global Liquidity Game
【Policy Game Intensifies】
The synchronized shift in monetary policy between China and the U.S. has caused a market shock:
1) China raised its deficit ratio to 4%, releasing 1.3 trillion special government bonds to stabilize the financial system, with M2 growth surpassing 12%, reaching a ten-year high.
2) The scale of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreements plummeted by 80%, with Trump pressuring Powell to cut interest rates early, and CME interest rate futures indicating a 78% probability of a rate cut in September.
【Market Volatility Analysis】
On May 14, BTC soared to a new high of $105,000 before crashing to $103,000, while ETH's single-day volatility reached 86%, and $360 million was liquidated in the derivatives market (Coinglass data). Notable points:
1) Institutional fund flows diverged: 9 ETH ETFs attracted $420 million in a single day, while BTC ETFs saw net outflows for three consecutive days.
2) Coinbase's valuation exceeded $45 billion after being included in the S&P 500, with an implied PE of 57 times, indicating bubble characteristics.
【On-Chain Alert Signals】
1) Miners' weekly selling volume reached 8,200 BTC (CryptoQuant).
2) The exchange's BTC inventory surpassed 2.4 million coins, setting a new high since the FTX collapse.
3) Stablecoins saw a weekly net outflow of $2.1 billion, with Tether's premium rate turning negative.
【Trading Strategy Recommendations】
1) Avoid altcoins with high unlock volumes (over $7 billion in May).
2) Pay attention to sovereign fund holdings: AAVE and LTC received increased investments from the Norwegian Pension Fund.
3) Maintain contract leverage below 30%, focusing on RWA and AI Agent sectors.
The current market has entered a 'liquidity trap' phase. When the USDT market cap/M2 ratio falls below 0.03% (currently reported at 0.035%), it often signals that a significant turning point is approaching.
