In the second half of 2024, I made approximately 15 million from trading Bitcoin. My capital multiplied by 50 times; if it weren't for withdrawing funds twice to buy a house, it should have been 85 times.

Today, I will share a few key insights. These experiences are worth 60 million, and I hope they can help you. #美国加征关税

1. Cognitive Awakening: From 'Profit Driven' to 'Risk Driven'

Survivorship Bias Trap: People always see 'myths of high profits' but ignore that the bankrupt have long been silent. In the 2015 A-share stock market crash, 90% of those who were liquidated considered themselves to have 'superior skills'. #炒币日记

Compound Interest Paradox: An average annual return of 20% compounds to six times in ten years; however, if you lose 50% in a given year, you need a subsequent 70% gain over three years to recover. Not losing is the fastest way to profit.

Black Swan Rule: Extreme events such as the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 negative oil prices specifically target those without risk plans.

2. Build an 'Unlosable' Defense Iron Rule #炒币是一场修行

(1) Position Lock

2% Single Trade Risk Rule: Limit each trade to a maximum loss of 2% of total capital, eliminating 'all-in' bets.

Volatility Adaptation Formula:

Position Size = (2% × Account Equity) / (ATR × Contract Value)

Example: With a 100,000 account, if gold ATR is 30, and contract value is 100 ounces → Position = (2000) / (30 × 100) = 0.66 lots.

(2) Trend Firewall

Three-Level Moving Average Filter: Weekly EMA30 determines the long or short direction, daily EMA5/20 crossovers serve as entry signals, and hourly closing prices below EMA60 mandate forced liquidation. $BTC

Momentum Alert Line: When prices reach new highs but RSI is lower than previous highs, and MACD histogram is contracting, immediately reduce positions by 50%.

(3) Automated Stop Loss $ETH

ATR Dynamic Stop Loss: Long stop loss = entry price - 2 × ATR, short stop loss = entry price + 2 × ATR, to avoid subjective interference.

Time Stop Loss: If the position has not been profitable after 72 hours, regardless of profit or loss, exit forcibly to prevent 'hope trading'. #策略交易

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