I. Analysis of core support levels
1. Upper support level: 94590 (short-term bull-bear dividing line)
- Importance: This position is the core support of the 4-hour short-term trend. If the price continues to stabilize above this point, it indicates that the bull strength dominates the market, and the trend is likely to continue upwards.
- Market significance:
- Not broken: Considered as a solid bull line. A long position can be attempted based on this support, targeting the upper pressure level.
- Broken: Short-term bull momentum weakens, and the market may turn towards a pullback. Be cautious of downward risks, and pay attention to the strength of the lower support levels.
II. Upper pressure level (target to break through)
1. First pressure level: 95770
- Position significance: Recent upward movements have formed short-term resistance. After breaking through, it may open further upward space, testing higher levels.
- Operation Reference: If the price reaches this position and shows signs of stagnation (such as a long upper shadow or increased trading volume), consider short-term profit-taking or reducing positions; if it breaks strongly, continue holding long positions and look towards higher targets.
2. Second pressure level: 96980
- Historical reference: This position is the upper edge of the previous range, possessing strong psychological resistance. After breaking through, the market may accelerate upwards, testing the annual high area.
3. Third pressure level: 98500
- Long-term target: If market sentiment continues to warm up and trading volume cooperates, the price is expected to challenge this position. Attention should be paid to the macro market's capital flow and changes in Bitcoin futures positions.
III. Lower support levels (potential pullback layout area)
1. First lower support level: 93565
- Initial support area: If the price breaks below the upper support level of 94590, it may quickly drop to this level in the short term, marking the first contention point for both bulls and bears.
- Operation strategy: If a stop-loss signal appears here (such as a bullish candlestick rebound, shrinking trading volume), it can be seen as a short-term buying opportunity, targeting the breakthrough situation of the 94590 pressure level.
2. Second lower support level: 92845
- Mid-term key support: This position is the support of the 4-hour upward trend line. If the price falls back to this level, observe whether the bulls can organize an effective counterattack. If stabilized, it can be seen as an opportunity for mid-term layout.
3. Third lower support level: 91620
- Strong support baseline: If the market continues to weaken, this level is the support of the previous dense trading area, with a low probability of breaking. If reached, it can be seen as a medium to long-term bullish accumulation opportunity, requiring a comprehensive judgment based on market fundamentals (such as Federal Reserve policy, Bitcoin ecosystem news).
IV. Operation strategy and position management
1. To be summarized: Current market state judgment
- Fluctuating bullish: Currently, the price is above the upper support level of 94590, and the short-term trend has not been damaged. However, be wary of the pullback risk in the dense area of the upper pressure level.
- Risk warning: Cryptocurrency volatility is severe; strict stop-loss settings are required (such as stopping out if the upper support level is broken) to avoid emotional trading.
2. Reference for entry positions
- Aggressive long position: If the price stabilizes around 94590, consider lightly entering long positions, with a stop-loss set below 94000, targeting 95770 and 96980 sequentially.
- Conservative long position: If the price breaks through the 95770 pressure level, wait for a confirmation of support after a pullback before following up, with a stop-loss set at 95000, targeting 98500.
- Pullback layout: If the price breaks below 94590, wait for stabilization signals at the lower support levels of 93565 or 92845 (such as a double bottom pattern or MACD bottom divergence) before considering building positions in batches.
V. Key points for risk control
1. Position management: Single trade position should not exceed 5% of total capital to avoid full position operations.
2. Profit-taking and stop-loss: Set reasonable profit targets based on pressure and support levels. Stop-loss should be decisive to avoid expanding losses.
3. Real-time tracking: Pay attention to the 4-hour candlestick patterns, changes in trading volume, and market news to adjust strategies flexibly.