I. Comprehensive analysis of multi-cycle technical patterns
1. Moving average system and price position
15-minute chart: Moving average bearish arrangement: Price (150.88) is below MA20 (151.86), EMA5/10/20 presents a bearish arrangement (152.6→151.86→150.33), short-term pressure.
Bollinger Bands: Price is close to the lower band (150.33), with the middle band (151.86) forming resistance, the channel opening is downward.
1-hour chart: Moving average convergence: MA20 (150.52) and MA40 (150.07) are dense in the 150.00-151.00 range, price (152.4) breaks MA20, short-term momentum strengthens.
Alligator lines: the jaw line (MA5), teeth line (MA8), and lips line (MA13) are intertwined near 150.52, suggesting a direction choice.
4-hour chart: Bullish arrangement: MA5 (150.80) > MA10 (149.50) > MA20 (148.14), price firmly stands above MA5 (152.4), medium-term trend is bullish.
2. Support and resistance and volatility
Key resistance: 15-minute chart: MA20 (151.86) and previous high 152.44.
4-hour chart: Fibonacci 78.6% retracement level 153.00.
Key support: 1-hour chart: Alligator jaw line (149.05) and Bollinger Band middle line (150.53).
4-hour chart: MA5 (150.80) and Bollinger Band middle line (148.14).
Volatility indicator: ATR (14): 1-hour chart ATR 3.2 points, 4-hour chart ATR 6.8 points, volatility is in the early stage of expansion.
3. K-line combinations and reversal signals
1-hour chart: Bullish engulfing: the latest bullish candle body (152.4) covers the previous bearish candle (151.09→151.25), MACD histogram shrinks and turns positive (+0.15).
Fractal breakout: upward fractal 152.44 is broken, target points to 153.36.
4-hour chart: Three soldiers advance: three consecutive bullish candles standing above MA5, OBV indicator hits a new high (335.628M), significant capital inflow.
4. Buying and selling power and capital flow
Order flow analysis: 15-minute chart sell orders accumulate in the 152.44-152.90 range (order volume accounts for 62%), breaking this can trigger short stop losses.
1-hour trading volume expands to 314.40K (USDT), the highest volume in the past 24 hours, indicating major capital involvement.
Long-short ratio: perpetual contract funding rate +0.01%! (MISSING) The derivatives market is dominated by bulls.
II. Trading instructions
Trading direction: Breakout long
Opening price range: 152.44-152.90 (breakout confirmation range)
Execution reason: Trend resonance: 4-hour moving averages bullish arrangement + 1-hour bullish engulfing, multi-cycle momentum synchronously strengthens.
Order flow validation: There is a dense area of short stop losses above 152.90, which can easily trigger an accelerated market after the breakout.
Risk-reward ratio: stop loss at 149.05 (Alligator jaw line), take profit at 157.80 (harmonic AB=CD target), profit-loss ratio 1:3.5.
Confidence level: 8 (requires continuous volume support).
Stop loss price: 149.05 (jaw line + 1.5 times ATR of volatility).
Take profit price: 157.80 (4-hour high + Fibonacci extension level).
Trailing stop loss: 0.0008 (activated after breaking 153.36, retracement of 0.8%! immediately triggers).
III. Strategy logic supplement
Key validation point: False breakout defense: If the price breaks 152.90 and closes below it in 1 hour, close the position immediately.
Acceleration signal: 4-hour RSI (14) breaks 60 and MACD golden cross above water, can add 20%! position.
Market environment: Beta coefficient: SOL and BTC have a 4-hour price correlation of 0.92, need to monitor if BTC can stabilize above 62,000.
On-chain data: Active addresses on the SOL chain increased by 18%! (MISSING) NFT trading volume exceeds 120 million USD, ecological support is strong.
IV. Operation execution plan
First position: Enter immediately at the breakout of 152.44 (50%! position), stop loss at 149.05.
Add position: chase position after confirming the breakout at 153.36 (30%!)(MISSING), move stop loss to 151.18.
Take profit in stages: First target 154.27 (upper edge of liquidity pool) close 30%! (MISSING)
Second target 157.80 close 50%! (MISSING)
Remaining positions will use trailing stop loss to capture trend continuation.
Conclusion: Currently, SOL/USDT is at a multi-cycle breakout critical point. It is recommended to open long positions in the breakout range of 152.44-152.90, with a strict stop loss at 149.05 and a target of 157.80, using order flow and volatility management to capture the main upward wave.
