Will the rate cut on the 18th definitely lead to a surge? Will
$ETH rise to 15000? Will
$BTC break the historical high and reach 200000? Or will it remain unchanged?
First, let's talk about the rate cut. Many people in the market have overly inflated expectations about the rate cut, thinking that once it happens, the coin price will soar straight up, as if the rate cut is the 'universal key' to saving the bull market.
But I think there is no need to hold onto such high hopes—while the probability of a rate cut in September is indeed not low, based on past market behaviors, such a major benefit has likely already been priced in ahead of time.
Logically, August should have welcomed a 'realization of expectations driven increase,' yet now August is experiencing a sharp drop instead. Could this be the last round of 'rate cut expectation speculation' before a big drop?
I don't think so. It’s possible that the market has already fully priced in, or even over-speculated about the rate cut, so we shouldn't keep staring at the news waiting for a market rescue. A genuine increase won't wait until the day the rate cut is announced to start.
From the current market perspective, the decline is far from over—the main funds show no signs of entering to buy, and the rebound strength is significantly weaker than before, clearly indicating that the main players are unwilling to take on chips at this price level. Since the main players are unwilling to invest real money, why should we rush in to gamble on new highs?
Technically, the weekly trend line for BTC has already been effectively broken, and the rebound has never managed to regain that position; each so-called 'rebound' is essentially a weak pullback.
In the short term, prices may fluctuate around $110,000; from a medium to long-term perspective, $90,000 and $70,000 will be key support levels.
Therefore, the current strategy should focus on short positions, and do not blindly catch the bottom—entering now likely means standing guard halfway up the mountain.
Refuse to miss out! Financial brother leads the way, fully understanding the strongest phases of the bull market!
#TRUMP晚宴 #特朗普称无意解雇鲍威尔 #加密市场反弹 #美股下挫