Yesterday, Trump said that the details of the semiconductor tariffs had not been revealed. It is speculated that he wanted to observe the situation of the U.S. stocks and U.S. bonds during this period before making a cautious decision. After the remarks on semiconductor tariffs came out, there was no continued large-scale selling of U.S. bonds and they stabilized.
Today's 10-year US Treasury yield fell by -0.64% year-on-year, and the Nasdaq index rose by +0.64% year-on-year. The data shows that the financial turmoil in the United States during this period will not be too chaotic. As Trump said: Once the market adapts to tariffs, it will become very powerful, but Wall Street institutions still expressed their concerns about the current market. The stagflation in the United States is one of the problems.
It can be seen from this that stabilization is not stability. Trump's goal is still to boil the frog in warm water. He will decide how to do it based on the market and then balance the pressure from all parties.
This period is when the bulls and bears in the crypto market are evenly matched, with the market mainly fluctuating in a narrow range. The current BTC price is stable at around 85,000. It may continue to rebound and break through 86,000 today. From the 4-hour trend line, it is a small breakthrough, and it may continue to rebound to around 88,000. From a macro perspective, the short-term outlook is mainly bullish. Today, a White House official said that the United States may use tariff revenue to purchase BTC.
But in the long run, it will still fall. Take the US economic recession as an example. If the tariff remains at 25%, inflation will still rise, which is not friendly to the economy and will still lead to the possibility of economic downturn, then the recession will come faster. All risky assets will be greatly affected.
Yesterday morning, OM fell 90% in a short period of time, from 6 US dollars to 0.5 US dollars, and its market value evaporated by 5.5 billion.
Before this crash, many people called it: God Coin, which has been violently pulling up the price since last year. Under the highly controlled mode, OM achieved a 200-fold price increase last year. The OM project responded that the crash was caused by disorderly liquidation and had nothing to do with their team. Subsequently, the price of OM rose from 0.5 USD to 1.2 USD.
For a highly controlled project like OM, if the community mechanism does not meet human needs, centralization is a high-risk existence. Therefore, the source of the selling addresses tracked by on-chain data is basically the work of large investors, which seems to be intentional.
As for altcoins, there was ACT first and OM later. In the bloody financial market with no fresh blood flowing in, no one will care about consensus and face, but will choose to cash out impatiently. They are more like doomed lackeys paving the way for BTC.
Summarize:
The short-term rebound of the crypto market may continue, and BTC is expected to test 88,000, but it is still suppressed by the risk of stagflation and economic recession in the United States in the long term. The high-altitude view is still the insurance recommendation.
The OM incident once again warns: projects that lack liquidity and decentralization will collapse in just a moment. During the market game period, be cautious about small currencies, and BTC is still the core safe-haven option under macro uncertainty.
04-15 Tuesday
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