SpaceXCFO says they are confident of achieving $100 billion in ARR
You see SpaceX’s stock price oscillating around $151, with a market cap of $2 trillion—so is this an overvaluation bubble, or underappreciated value in space-and-sky infrastructure?
$SPCX Take a close look at the data it just disclosed: in 2025, revenue was $18.67 billion, yet losses were $4.9 billion, and the price-to-sales multiple is shockingly high. To traditional finance purists, this is basically a disaster. But Wall Street institutions still gave a $800 target price—the key is that the capital markets have put it into an entirely different valuation framework.
From the perspective of its asset structure, SpaceX’s stock-price logic has long been rewritten
▶️ The “cash-flow base” is fully solidified
Starlink’s annual revenue has surged to $11.4 billion, accounting for more than 60%, contributing $4.4 billion in operating profit. Rocket launches are no longer the primary monetization tool; they’ve become an internal utility for Starlink’s cost reduction and network buildout.
▶️ M&A with xAI injects a premium on compute
After absorbing xAI, plus the newly secured $10+ billion in space-compute capacity management, it upgrades the valuation narrative—from a satellite operator to a space-based cloud compute platform. The accounting losses mainly come from Starship R&D and more than $10 billion in AI compute infrastructure investment.
I expect that in the short term, due to heavy-asset investment in compute, the bottom-line earnings won’t look good, and the stock price will likely remain extremely volatile. But in the medium term, as long as Starship completes full reusability and drives orbital transportation costs to the extreme, it will dominate space-based compute and data links. At that point, what surface data-center companies may face could be a “dimensional strike from above.” With the current price, it’s very likely a near-term low point for stages over the next few years.
With the headline loss of $4.9 billion, would you dare to take a heavy bet on this space-and-sky giant?
DYOR
#SpaceX