AI概念币强势反弹

Why did the US stock market and Bitcoin collapse collectively? The reason behind it is actually related to economic data, you will never guess!

Hello everyone, today we will talk about the reasons why the US stock market and Bitcoin collapsed collectively.

You may be surprised that the key behind this is actually related to economic data.
Let's take a look at the specific data. The job vacancies in the United States in November reached 8.098 million, which was expected to be 7.74 million and 7.744 million in the previous period. This data exceeded expectations and was very strong. Let's look at the US ISM non-manufacturing PMI in December. The value was 54.1, the expectation was 53.3, and the previous value was 52.1, which was also far beyond expectations and extremely strong.

You may wonder why strong economic data will lead to a market crash? In fact, the ISM service industry (non-manufacturing index) is an important data released by the US Supply Management Association. It examines the situation of non-manufacturing in production, new orders, commodity prices, inventory, employees, order delivery, new export orders and imports, and is a leading indicator of economic health. Generally speaking, any index above 50 indicates that the economy is expanding, and anything below 50 indicates that it is shrinking. Although it has a much smaller impact on GDP than the ISM manufacturing index, if the index is higher than expected, the dollar should be considered strong/bullish, while if the index is lower than expected, the dollar should be considered weak/bearish.

However, sometimes the market reaction may not be so intuitive, and strong economic data may also cause market concerns, such as rising inflationary pressures, increased expectations of Fed rate hikes, etc., which may lead to a market crash.
Behind the collapse of US stocks and Bitcoin, economic data played an important role. For investors, it is very important to stay vigilant and pay attention to changes in economic data.
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Six years of experience in the currency circle, free to share the experience and insights of contract spot, welcome to click the avatar for consultation, let's make progress together!

1.11 Saturday Market Analysis:

The Bitcoin rose to 95800 at midnight before falling back to 94391 by 8 AM, currently around 94400. The Ethereum rose to around 3320 before falling back, currently around 3250.

From the current four-hour structure, Bitcoin's momentum is gradually trending downward, with resistance at around 96000 and support at around 93300. From the one-hour structure, Bitcoin's momentum shows an upward tendency, with resistance at around 95600 and support at around 93300.

Saturday Trading Suggestions:

If Bitcoin retraces to around 93900-93500, look towards 94900-95300.

If Ethereum retraces to around 3220-3200, look towards 3275-3300.

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1. The leader of the crypto world: BTC (the top choice for bottom fishing and regular investment)
2. The king of public chains: ETH (the second in the crypto world, the top choice for bottom fishing and regular investment)
3. Platform coin: BNB (the largest exchange platform coin in the market, the second choice for regular investment)
4. DEX leader: UNI, DYDX
5. Layer 2 leader: MATIC, OP
6. Ethereum 2.0 staking leader: SSV,
LDO
7. Cross-chain leader: DOT, ATOM
8. DeFi lending leader: AAVE,
COMP
9. DeFi oracle leader: LINK
10. NFT leader: DEGO, BAKE
11. Web3 leader: ENS, AR
12. Gaming leader: SAND, MANA
13. AI leader: AGIX, SNX
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Every time I send an analysis, I will try to explain the thought process clearly, why to go long, why to go short, what the basis is, why that position, and what the stop loss is based on!
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In response to readers' feedback that reading 10,000-word macroeconomic articles is stressful, I have specially compiled two refined mind maps to help you quickly grasp the basic structure of the U.S. macroeconomics.

In the journey of the cryptocurrency circle and the U.S. stock market, a deep insight into the U.S. macroeconomics is undoubtedly your right-hand man.

Please be sure to focus on the following core indicators: GDP, the Fed's interest rate cut and interest rate hike policies, the latest developments in U.S. Treasury bonds, the U.S. dollar exchange rate and its index changes, the Federal Open Market Committee's meeting resolutions, and the consumer price index.

These key data not only directly guide the flow of funds, but also profoundly affect the ups and downs of the financial cycle.

Once you have mastered these elements, you will be able to easily invest in the cryptocurrency circle and deal with the changing market more calmly and confidently. $BTC #AI概念币强势反弹

How to quickly judge whether an investment is worth it?

Investment cannot be rushed; whether it's Buffett or Charlie Munger, they both take their time.

Don't be afraid of missing some opportunities; what's important is to avoid stepping on landmines. The desire to make quick money is actually the reason many people end up broke. In the crypto world, everyone wants to make quick money, but it's crucial to recognize what cannot be done.

This is especially true now, particularly in the crypto space. Just think about how you were taken advantage of and how it felt deeply painful.
Daring to try actually means taking risks that you can afford to bear.

Spot trading may be slow, but it is stable! Futures trading may be fast, but it carries the risk of liquidation!

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In 2025, the Federal Reserve demonstrated a clear cautious attitude towards its interest rate reduction strategy, significantly slowing its pace. Boston Fed President Collins publicly stated that, given the current strong performance of the labor market and ongoing inflationary pressures, the Fed plans to lower interest rates only twice in 2025, a decision that is below the market's original expectation of four cuts.

Kansas Fed President Schmidt further pointed out that the current economic conditions are approaching the dual goals of price stability and full employment, thus monetary policy should remain neutral and should not be overly accommodative or restrictive.

At the same time, Fed Governor Bowman emphasized that inflation risks still exist, and future monetary policy decisions will be made with greater caution to ensure stable economic performance.

The latest data from CME's "FedWatch" indicates that investors generally expect the Fed to maintain the current interest rate level in January 2025, reflecting a more cautious outlook on future rate cuts in the market.

In summary, the adjustment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy under the current economic situation reflects its prudent assessment of economic operations. The slowdown in the pace of interest rate cuts suggests that the Fed will be more cautious in balancing economic growth with inflation control. Market participants have also reacted to this, expecting that the future rate-cutting process will be slower and more careful, reflecting a deepening understanding of the complexity and uncertainty of the economic outlook.$BTC $ETH #非农数据大幅超出预期 #AI概念币强势反弹 #比特币价格走势分析 #加密市场回调 #市场调整策略

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Brother Sun said that if the Ethereum Foundation, in 3 months, would make the Ethereum price exceed ten thousand, I think wherever he goes, it will ignite, burning his own thing, you have to run fast.

It's the eighth day, and today I aim to double it, currently at 1.67 times. Last time it took 17 days to reach three times; can I complete the task in 15 days after gaining insight?

The market doesn't change overnight; it requires an evolutionary process. During my week of review, a senior told me not to set daily goals. We are merely executors and have no right to intervene in the market; whether we earn more or less depends on the market's decisions. Regardless of the process, as long as the result is good, it's fine. Friends who are following the trades, please do not operate, as it can easily lead to losses. Short-term views are about emotions, while medium to long-term views are about trends.

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Currently, looking at the 4-hour chart of Bitcoin, a clear downward posture has formed, and the bearish candlestick has continued to the west. The K-line rebounds and the bearish candlestick directly plunges, indicating a super selling trend. There is no rebound in a strong manner, and the K-line is consistently bearish while also showing upper shadows. The moving averages continue to maintain a downward trend. Short positions are advisable, and if there is a slight rebound, continue to short!

The morning trading strategy is to short directly between 98000-98500, with a target of 96000.

At midnight, Bitcoin surged above 100,000, briefly paused, then began a strong drop, falling to around 96,100. This is clearly a washout, and it has now returned to yesterday's starting point. The recent volatility is quite large, so beginners should avoid frequent trading, as it can lead to movements of several thousand points. The most prudent approach is to wait for the market to establish a clear direction before entering, and to take profits promptly when they arise, maintaining a steady approach.

From a daily perspective, Bitcoin has been operating within a range, with overall fluctuations being significant. Currently, it is in a bottom-rebound structure. On the four-hour chart, the highs are clearly moving down, and the lows have approached around 91,100, forming a short-term downward channel. From the one-hour perspective, this is still quite evident, so in the morning, it would be wise to short first.

Short Bitcoin at 98,000-98,500, watch at 96,000
Short Ethereum at 2,745-2,760, watch at 2,670