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💰自由投资人 🏅️交易分析师 推特：@FU SU01全网同步微博公众号：交易公子扶苏
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🔥Gathering Benefits! Hurry to secure mutual commitment!
New friends don't get lost, old fans quickly assemble~ From now on, follow + like + comment on this post to immediately follow back and gain your crypto companions!
Whether it's market analysis, strategic insights, or interesting news from the community, the future will be shared with you~ If you find that I 'slipped' and missed following back, just drop a reminder in the comments, and I'll arrange it in no time! 🚀$BTC $ETH $SOL #马斯克计划成立美国党 #长期持有策略 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC
New friends don't get lost, old fans quickly assemble~ From now on, follow + like + comment on this post to immediately follow back and gain your crypto companions!
Whether it's market analysis, strategic insights, or interesting news from the community, the future will be shared with you~ If you find that I 'slipped' and missed following back, just drop a reminder in the comments, and I'll arrange it in no time! 🚀$BTC $ETH $SOL #马斯克计划成立美国党 #长期持有策略 #MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC
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25/01/052️⃣4️⃣ Year Market Operation Summary and Outlook for 2️⃣5️⃣ Year Market Trends!
25/01/052️⃣4️⃣ Year Market Operation Summary and Outlook for 2️⃣5️⃣ Year Market Trends
What is happening now is very similar to the period at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024.
In terms of growth: the increase from 24900 to 49000 and from 52500 to 108353 is about double.
In terms of patterns: after a 224-day oscillation in the range of 24900—31800, it broke through; the rising flag pattern oscillated for 238 days in the range of 49000—74000.
After breaking through 40,000 in 23, it formed a spreading triangle; after breaking through 90,000 in 24, it also formed a spreading triangle, which lasts about 35 days.
In terms of timing: previously, we mentioned that after oscillating for more than 7 months, the beginning of each month tends to have turning points, so the probability of a turning point in the first week of next month is relatively high. (This was mentioned in the article on 24/12/29, reminding that the adjustment is about to end, and it is the best time to buy in batches for bottom-fishing, coinciding with the crypto president taking office during the Spring Festival!)
What is happening now is very similar to the period at the end of 2023 and the beginning of 2024.
In terms of growth: the increase from 24900 to 49000 and from 52500 to 108353 is about double.
In terms of patterns: after a 224-day oscillation in the range of 24900—31800, it broke through; the rising flag pattern oscillated for 238 days in the range of 49000—74000.
After breaking through 40,000 in 23, it formed a spreading triangle; after breaking through 90,000 in 24, it also formed a spreading triangle, which lasts about 35 days.
In terms of timing: previously, we mentioned that after oscillating for more than 7 months, the beginning of each month tends to have turning points, so the probability of a turning point in the first week of next month is relatively high. (This was mentioned in the article on 24/12/29, reminding that the adjustment is about to end, and it is the best time to buy in batches for bottom-fishing, coinciding with the crypto president taking office during the Spring Festival!)
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25/11/03 BTC Weekly double black engulfing, Ethereum continues downtrend channel, overall Crypto is not optimistic
25/11/03 BTC Weekly double black engulfing, Ethereum continues downtrend channel, overall Crypto is not optimistic
Bitcoin's weekly close shows a double black engulfing pattern, and with today's opening drop, the short-term trend remains downwards. The daily line's triangular structure is currently testing the support below, and there is a probability of breaking it. Therefore, we need to pay attention to whether it will again bounce back after retesting the sharp drop low point, or break below and then recover—both situations are favorable for bulls; otherwise, from the perspective of technical indicators and naked K indicators, the overall trend still leans bearish.
Ethereum's weekly trend is more pronounced, the first six weeks have formed two sets of double black engulfing patterns, and the market opened lower on Monday, with the daily line also forming a downtrend channel. Since the weekly MACD crossed below the zero line, 'the young master' has been reminding of this. Currently, the daily line is testing support near 3660 again, and there is also a probability of testing the sharp drop low point of October 10, or even breaking below it.
Bitcoin's weekly close shows a double black engulfing pattern, and with today's opening drop, the short-term trend remains downwards. The daily line's triangular structure is currently testing the support below, and there is a probability of breaking it. Therefore, we need to pay attention to whether it will again bounce back after retesting the sharp drop low point, or break below and then recover—both situations are favorable for bulls; otherwise, from the perspective of technical indicators and naked K indicators, the overall trend still leans bearish.
Ethereum's weekly trend is more pronounced, the first six weeks have formed two sets of double black engulfing patterns, and the market opened lower on Monday, with the daily line also forming a downtrend channel. Since the weekly MACD crossed below the zero line, 'the young master' has been reminding of this. Currently, the daily line is testing support near 3660 again, and there is also a probability of testing the sharp drop low point of October 10, or even breaking below it.
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November 3 BTC weekly double negative engulfing, Ethereum continues in a downward channel, Crypto overall is not optimistic
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CZ stated on platform X that today he has purchased some ASTER on the Binance platform with his own money. I am not a trader, and I will hold after buying. $ASTER #巨鲸动向 #美国政府停摆 #法国比特币战略储备计划
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Tom Lee's Fund Analyst: Five Reasons Proving the Current Market Has Not Topped Out
Tom Lee's fund analyst Mark Newton tweeted that many people are trying to use common technical indicators to argue that cryptocurrencies have already peaked. Personally, I do not agree with this viewpoint for the following reasons:
1) The Elliott Wave structure has not shown any signs of topping out.
2) Monthly DeMark signals have not yet appeared.
3) The weakening momentum caused by sideways consolidation always leads to the MACD indicator turning negative, but in this case, due to the lack of wave indicator confirmation of a sharp five-wave drop from the peak, the MACD's turn to negative is not decisive.
4) The medium-term trend has not been broken (since 2022, the highs and lows have continued to rise).
5) The current market sentiment is far from reaching the levels that typically indicate a substantial peak in the crypto market. $BTC $ETH $SOL #巨鲸动向 #美联储降息 #美国政府停摆
Tom Lee's fund analyst Mark Newton tweeted that many people are trying to use common technical indicators to argue that cryptocurrencies have already peaked. Personally, I do not agree with this viewpoint for the following reasons:
1) The Elliott Wave structure has not shown any signs of topping out.
2) Monthly DeMark signals have not yet appeared.
3) The weakening momentum caused by sideways consolidation always leads to the MACD indicator turning negative, but in this case, due to the lack of wave indicator confirmation of a sharp five-wave drop from the peak, the MACD's turn to negative is not decisive.
4) The medium-term trend has not been broken (since 2022, the highs and lows have continued to rise).
5) The current market sentiment is far from reaching the levels that typically indicate a substantial peak in the crypto market. $BTC $ETH $SOL #巨鲸动向 #美联储降息 #美国政府停摆
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The U.S. government 'shutdown' continues, with 3 days left to tie the longest record
Overview of the shutdown: Since October 1, the U.S. federal government has been shut down for 32 days, making it the second longest in history, just 3 days short of the longest record of 35 days. Vice President Vance stated it may last until late November;
Nature of the shutdown: The shutdown is due to Congress failing to pass a new fiscal year budget or temporary funding bill, causing non-core federal departments to shut down. The root cause is the disagreement between the two parties on budget and policy proposals;
Social impact: Over a million military personnel are facing issues with salary payments, and in November, 1/8 of the U.S. population (about 42 million) is facing difficulties with food;
Stalemate between the two parties: The Republican Party tends to cut non-defense spending and increase military funding, while the Democratic Party advocates for maintaining social welfare. Both sides refuse to compromise, leading to a difficult stalemate. $BTC $ETH $SOL #巨鲸动向 #美联储降息 #美国政府停摆
Overview of the shutdown: Since October 1, the U.S. federal government has been shut down for 32 days, making it the second longest in history, just 3 days short of the longest record of 35 days. Vice President Vance stated it may last until late November;
Nature of the shutdown: The shutdown is due to Congress failing to pass a new fiscal year budget or temporary funding bill, causing non-core federal departments to shut down. The root cause is the disagreement between the two parties on budget and policy proposals;
Social impact: Over a million military personnel are facing issues with salary payments, and in November, 1/8 of the U.S. population (about 42 million) is facing difficulties with food;
Stalemate between the two parties: The Republican Party tends to cut non-defense spending and increase military funding, while the Democratic Party advocates for maintaining social welfare. Both sides refuse to compromise, leading to a difficult stalemate. $BTC $ETH $SOL #巨鲸动向 #美联储降息 #美国政府停摆
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25/11/01BTC Monthly Pin Bar, 100,000 is the line between bull and bear markets, how will the short term proceed?
25/11/01BTC Monthly Pin Bar, 100,000 is the line between bull and bear markets, how will the short term proceed?
Bitcoin's monthly closing has reached an all-time high, while simultaneously experiencing a sharp drop around 100,000. It has been oscillating above 100,000 for four consecutive months. If we consider the time since it first touched 100,000, it has been a year. The US stock market, gold, the Nikkei index, and the Korean composite index have all reached historical highs, while Bitcoin has remained at this level for a year. Many in the market are bearish. My view remains the same: if it falls below 100,000 and cannot recover, then we will consider it a bearish trend. For now, it continues to oscillate at high levels.
Bitcoin's monthly closing has reached an all-time high, while simultaneously experiencing a sharp drop around 100,000. It has been oscillating above 100,000 for four consecutive months. If we consider the time since it first touched 100,000, it has been a year. The US stock market, gold, the Nikkei index, and the Korean composite index have all reached historical highs, while Bitcoin has remained at this level for a year. Many in the market are bearish. My view remains the same: if it falls below 100,000 and cannot recover, then we will consider it a bearish trend. For now, it continues to oscillate at high levels.
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November 1st BTC monthly pinning up and down, 100,000 is the bull-bear dividing line, how will the short-term move next?
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US stocks hit all-time highs
Gold reached an all-time high
Nikkei index reached a new high
Korea Composite Index reached a new high
Only Bitcoin has been fluctuating around 100,000 for a year
The young master feels that the Bitcoin bull market has not ended after a week
Is there a possibility that this year of fluctuation is still a consolidation
Once it breaks out upwards, there is a chance to reach 200,000$BTC $ETH $SOL #巨鲸动向 #美联储降息 #加密市场回调
Gold reached an all-time high
Nikkei index reached a new high
Korea Composite Index reached a new high
Only Bitcoin has been fluctuating around 100,000 for a year
The young master feels that the Bitcoin bull market has not ended after a week
Is there a possibility that this year of fluctuation is still a consolidation
Once it breaks out upwards, there is a chance to reach 200,000$BTC $ETH $SOL #巨鲸动向 #美联储降息 #加密市场回调
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$XRP spot ETF is coming
On October 31, Canary Capital submitted an updated S-1 form for its XRP spot ETF, officially removing the "delayed amendment clause" and transferring control of the listing timeline to the U.S. SEC. If the Nasdaq 8-A form application is approved, the ETF is expected to officially launch on November 13. $BTC $ETH $SOL #巨鲸动向 #美联储降息 #加密市场回调
On October 31, Canary Capital submitted an updated S-1 form for its XRP spot ETF, officially removing the "delayed amendment clause" and transferring control of the listing timeline to the U.S. SEC. If the Nasdaq 8-A form application is approved, the ETF is expected to officially launch on November 13. $BTC $ETH $SOL #巨鲸动向 #美联储降息 #加密市场回调
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Bitcoin has been stuck in a sideways trend since June
An obvious pattern is: over the past four months
the price has dropped every time the Federal Reserve meets
Now this scene is playing out again, and it is very likely
this is the last washout triggered by the interest rate decision
After this, the market will choose a new direction❕
$BTC
$ETH
An obvious pattern is: over the past four months
the price has dropped every time the Federal Reserve meets
Now this scene is playing out again, and it is very likely
this is the last washout triggered by the interest rate decision
After this, the market will choose a new direction❕
$BTC
$ETH
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Federal Reserve Policy Adjustment: FOMC Statement Announces Rate Cut of 25 Basis Points (Second Consecutive Time), Ending Balance Sheet Reduction on December 1 and Adjusting Asset Reinvestment Strategy, Members Have Divergent Views on Rate Cuts.
Economic and Employment Inflation: The economy is experiencing moderate expansion (expected growth rate of 1.6% this year), job market growth is slowing, unemployment rate is slightly rising, and inflation remains high (core PCE excluding tariffs is about 2.3%-2.4%).
Impact of Government Shutdown: Leads to missing economic data, adjustment of FOMC statement wording, Powell states current data shows little change in outlook, but private data is difficult to replace official data.
Interest Rate Outlook and Market Response: December rate cut is not inevitable and there are significant divergences within the committee, market expectations for a December rate cut probability decreased from 83% to 65%.
Other Key Points: Default rates are rising but no widespread credit issues are observed; ending balance sheet reduction due to pressures in the money market and insufficient bank reserves; Powell mentioned that the impact of tariffs is temporary and also expressed views on the stock market and AI. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储降息 #加密市场回调 #中美贸易谈判
Economic and Employment Inflation: The economy is experiencing moderate expansion (expected growth rate of 1.6% this year), job market growth is slowing, unemployment rate is slightly rising, and inflation remains high (core PCE excluding tariffs is about 2.3%-2.4%).
Impact of Government Shutdown: Leads to missing economic data, adjustment of FOMC statement wording, Powell states current data shows little change in outlook, but private data is difficult to replace official data.
Interest Rate Outlook and Market Response: December rate cut is not inevitable and there are significant divergences within the committee, market expectations for a December rate cut probability decreased from 83% to 65%.
Other Key Points: Default rates are rising but no widespread credit issues are observed; ending balance sheet reduction due to pressures in the money market and insufficient bank reserves; Powell mentioned that the impact of tariffs is temporary and also expressed views on the stock market and AI. $BTC $ETH $SOL #美联储降息 #加密市场回调 #中美贸易谈判
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