降息预期
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If tariffs are further downgraded, the Federal Reserve may be expected to cut interest rates
If tariffs are further downgraded, the Federal Reserve may be expected to cut interest rates. Current growth pressures are not reflected; April's non-farm payrolls remain strong, and the ISM manufacturing and services PMIs also maintain resilience. Even if the Federal Reserve wants to respond preemptively, there is not enough reason to do so, especially since Powell's term ends in May next year, and the risk of overreacting is significant. Therefore, in balancing the 'dilemma' between inflation and growth, the Federal Reserve is more likely to choose to observe rather than 'take the initiative.' However, if subsequent tariff risks can be further downgraded, the Federal Reserve would have the opportunity to cut interest rates again in the third or fourth quarter to ease growth pressures at that time.#降息预期
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If someone posts a message asking you to go long or short, please just leave it as is, especially those who don't go long or go short, just do it, those who don't post contract positions, just do it, those who open contracts of several U or more, just do it, purify the cryptocurrency network environment, starting with you and me! #降息预期
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The People's Bank of China has lowered the reserve requirement and interest rates. How much of the one trillion RMB in circulation can flow into the cryptocurrency market? There is an impact, but not much.
Firstly, cryptocurrencies are not legal in China, making large-scale inflows inconvenient.
Secondly, domestic consumption power is too low.
We still have to wait for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Cryptocurrencies are legal in the United States, and American consumption habits lead to high consumer power.
#降息预期
Firstly, cryptocurrencies are not legal in China, making large-scale inflows inconvenient.
Secondly, domestic consumption power is too low.
We still have to wait for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. Cryptocurrencies are legal in the United States, and American consumption habits lead to high consumer power.
#降息预期
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The interest rate hike and cut forecast will be announced at 2:00 AM, and the market is expected to experience significant fluctuations. It is recommended to set take-profit protection during the day when there are profits, and prepare to respond to evening directional trends. You can choose to directly take profit and lock in gains, as these news-driven fluctuations may be quite intense. Find the right direction to capitalize on large waves! $BTC $ETH #降息预期
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Big news! A package of financial support policies is released: lowering the reserve requirement ratio, lowering interest rates, increasing liquidity, and making every effort to stabilize expectations and the market
At 9:00 a.m. on May 7, the State Council Information Office held a press conference, where the heads of the People's Bank of China, the State Financial Supervision and Administration Bureau, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and other departments jointly appeared to introduce the relevant situation of "a package of financial policies to support stabilizing the market and expectations." Behind the positive signal from the policy side is a precise response to the current complex economic environment.
Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, made it clear at the meeting that in order to implement the spirit of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee meeting on April 25 and promote high-quality economic development, the People's Bank of China will increase its macro-control efforts, introduce a package of monetary policy tools, and further improve the "quantity, price, and structure" three-in-one control framework.
Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, made it clear at the meeting that in order to implement the spirit of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee meeting on April 25 and promote high-quality economic development, the People's Bank of China will increase its macro-control efforts, introduce a package of monetary policy tools, and further improve the "quantity, price, and structure" three-in-one control framework.
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The anticipated interest rate cut in the U.S. did not happen, but China has cut rates instead.
There are two main factors for this interest rate cut by the central bank:
First, under the significant premise of the decoupling between China and the U.S., China has a long-term current account surplus, but its U.S. dollar foreign exchange reserves have not increased year after year. China is consciously controlling the level of U.S. dollar foreign exchange reserves and is no longer seeking to increase them.
Second, after the status of U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe asset was challenged, the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. is no longer the most significant factor driving capital outflows. The main reason why U.S. Treasury bonds have been abandoned by price insensitive buyers (central banks of various countries) is precisely due to Trump's tariff policies.
Many people always mention the exchange rate without understanding the underlying logic. With the decrease in direct trade volume between China and the U.S. and China no longer pursuing an increase in U.S. dollar foreign exchange reserves, what strategic significance does the RMB to USD exchange rate hold?
In other words, the offshore RMB exchange rate is not a constraint on the central bank's monetary policy. Maintaining a reasonable range of two-way flexible fluctuations is sufficient. The central bank does not have that much interest and energy to maintain the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate.
There was a very interesting saying before: If the Federal Reserve does not cut rates, I will not cut rates; as soon as the Federal Reserve cuts, I will follow suit, replicating last year's September 24.
In fact, the logic of cutting rates today is not wrong either, because a rate cut will inevitably impact the RMB exchange rate. Our initial rate cut will certainly lead to pressure on the RMB.
As a result, when the trade war broke out in April, it was the U.S. itself that caused the dollar to collapse, plunging from 110 to 99, and thus there were no worries about cutting rates anymore.
So does this interest rate cut mean that the Federal Reserve will also follow suit?
$BNB $ETH $BTC
#美联储FOMC会议 #降息预期 #美国众议院市场结构讨论草案
There are two main factors for this interest rate cut by the central bank:
First, under the significant premise of the decoupling between China and the U.S., China has a long-term current account surplus, but its U.S. dollar foreign exchange reserves have not increased year after year. China is consciously controlling the level of U.S. dollar foreign exchange reserves and is no longer seeking to increase them.
Second, after the status of U.S. Treasury bonds as a safe asset was challenged, the interest rate differential between China and the U.S. is no longer the most significant factor driving capital outflows. The main reason why U.S. Treasury bonds have been abandoned by price insensitive buyers (central banks of various countries) is precisely due to Trump's tariff policies.
Many people always mention the exchange rate without understanding the underlying logic. With the decrease in direct trade volume between China and the U.S. and China no longer pursuing an increase in U.S. dollar foreign exchange reserves, what strategic significance does the RMB to USD exchange rate hold?
In other words, the offshore RMB exchange rate is not a constraint on the central bank's monetary policy. Maintaining a reasonable range of two-way flexible fluctuations is sufficient. The central bank does not have that much interest and energy to maintain the offshore RMB to USD exchange rate.
There was a very interesting saying before: If the Federal Reserve does not cut rates, I will not cut rates; as soon as the Federal Reserve cuts, I will follow suit, replicating last year's September 24.
In fact, the logic of cutting rates today is not wrong either, because a rate cut will inevitably impact the RMB exchange rate. Our initial rate cut will certainly lead to pressure on the RMB.
As a result, when the trade war broke out in April, it was the U.S. itself that caused the dollar to collapse, plunging from 110 to 99, and thus there were no worries about cutting rates anymore.
So does this interest rate cut mean that the Federal Reserve will also follow suit?
$BNB $ETH $BTC
#美联储FOMC会议 #降息预期 #美国众议院市场结构讨论草案
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2 AM tonight! The Federal Reserve's nuclear-level decision is coming, and the countdown to Bitcoin's $100,000 life-and-death situation begins! The battle between bulls and bears is about to erupt!
1. An epic storm is about to arrive. At 2 AM Beijing time on May 8, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will make a heavy debut! This will be a key moment that determines the fate of the cryptocurrency market, and Bitcoin may become exciting, with the ultimate showdown between bulls and bears on the verge of breaking out.
2. Two extreme scenarios: 1. Maintaining interest rates: The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this time. If this expectation becomes a reality, Bitcoin is likely to see a short-term pullback. As the market is prepared for this, Bitcoin may enter a phase of short-term fluctuations and declines after the announcement. 2. Unexpected rate cut: If the Federal Reserve unexpectedly opens the door to rate cuts, Bitcoin will welcome a massive surge! It is expected that its price will directly break through the historical high and start the assault on the $100,000 mark. At that time, the bears will be severely impacted, and a large number of short positions will face the risk of liquidation.
3. Institutional layout hides secrets. Currently, investment moguls in the market are frantically positioning themselves, indicating that they are ready to welcome the upcoming market. Once Bitcoin successfully stabilizes at $100,000, the $3 billion worth of 'bearish chips' will instantly disappear, which is also the super harvesting moment that the manipulators have long anticipated.
4. Recent trend analysis: From recent market trends, Bitcoin's K-line shows a slow upward tendency. In the process, the bears have found themselves continuously trapped, making it difficult to exit. For the manipulators, smashing the market in the current situation is not in their interest; the temptation of 'bearish fat' is enormous, and they are more inclined to gradually raise prices, waiting for the bears to be completely trapped before delivering a fatal blow. In the face of the impending market storm, do you choose to position yourself in advance and seize the opportunity? Or do you choose to wait and hope for the manipulators to 'extend a helping hand'? Tonight, the answer will soon be revealed!
When others panic, I am at ease; when others are greedy, I win by lying down! This is the true portrayal of a quantitative player.
1. An epic storm is about to arrive. At 2 AM Beijing time on May 8, the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will make a heavy debut! This will be a key moment that determines the fate of the cryptocurrency market, and Bitcoin may become exciting, with the ultimate showdown between bulls and bears on the verge of breaking out.
2. Two extreme scenarios: 1. Maintaining interest rates: The market generally expects that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates this time. If this expectation becomes a reality, Bitcoin is likely to see a short-term pullback. As the market is prepared for this, Bitcoin may enter a phase of short-term fluctuations and declines after the announcement. 2. Unexpected rate cut: If the Federal Reserve unexpectedly opens the door to rate cuts, Bitcoin will welcome a massive surge! It is expected that its price will directly break through the historical high and start the assault on the $100,000 mark. At that time, the bears will be severely impacted, and a large number of short positions will face the risk of liquidation.
3. Institutional layout hides secrets. Currently, investment moguls in the market are frantically positioning themselves, indicating that they are ready to welcome the upcoming market. Once Bitcoin successfully stabilizes at $100,000, the $3 billion worth of 'bearish chips' will instantly disappear, which is also the super harvesting moment that the manipulators have long anticipated.
4. Recent trend analysis: From recent market trends, Bitcoin's K-line shows a slow upward tendency. In the process, the bears have found themselves continuously trapped, making it difficult to exit. For the manipulators, smashing the market in the current situation is not in their interest; the temptation of 'bearish fat' is enormous, and they are more inclined to gradually raise prices, waiting for the bears to be completely trapped before delivering a fatal blow. In the face of the impending market storm, do you choose to position yourself in advance and seize the opportunity? Or do you choose to wait and hope for the manipulators to 'extend a helping hand'? Tonight, the answer will soon be revealed!
When others panic, I am at ease; when others are greedy, I win by lying down! This is the true portrayal of a quantitative player.
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"When will the 'timid' Powell actually cut rates?"
Trump's sudden maneuvers have thrown an already complicated economic situation into complete chaos. The sudden attack of tariffs not only caught the market off guard but also forced the Federal Reserve into a position where there is no good option. Now Powell's troubles have arrived: on one side is the rising risk of inflation, and on the other is the obvious concern of slowing growth. To cut or not to cut? No matter how they choose, half the people are ready to criticize.
For more than a year, the Federal Reserve has adhered to a 'hard stance' strategy: if inflation does not meet standards, they will never cut rates. However, now Trump's trade policy seems like a deep-water bomb, splattering inflation expectations all over the place. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates too early, it might fuel price increases and the specter of inflation could return; but if they continue to maintain an 'unmoved' posture, the consequences of an economic slowdown might be hard to manage.
For more than a year, the Federal Reserve has adhered to a 'hard stance' strategy: if inflation does not meet standards, they will never cut rates. However, now Trump's trade policy seems like a deep-water bomb, splattering inflation expectations all over the place. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates too early, it might fuel price increases and the specter of inflation could return; but if they continue to maintain an 'unmoved' posture, the consequences of an economic slowdown might be hard to manage.
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The current signals released by the entire market are pessimistic. Data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in June is 97%. The US stock market may plunge again. Right now, only Bitcoin is holding strong, while most other altcoins can't outperform Bitcoin. If things go poorly, they might also drop along with the US stocks, just like the situation on March 12th. Buffett prepared for a bottom-fishing opportunity after maintaining a half position for five years. At this moment, being fully invested in the face of future uncertainties can be relatively passive. Therefore, a few days ago, I reminded to reduce some positions, mainly out of this consideration.
玩币只为不下海:
多空都被姐姐讲完了
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Damn it, sometimes I wonder why I play this stupid game, knowing that the dealer is watching your cards to harvest, the difference is just that some harvest slowly, while others harvest all at once. The retail investors who make money are just lucky survivors of survivor bias; eventually, they will lose it all in one go. The reason they are still alive is just that it hasn't been their turn yet. Why do they tirelessly send money to the reapers? The summary is that they are all gamblers, betting that they can win this round, betting that they can break even next time, betting that they are the chosen ones, betting for financial freedom. In the end, it turns out that this seems to be a fantasy of not admitting defeat. The outcome is predictable... truly terrifying! #牛市进展 #降息预期 $ETH
$TRUMP
$TRUMP
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At present, the trend seems to be in line with my expectations.
It is impossible to keep rising. It is already going down.
My short position is opened at 96999, and it has started to make a profit.
I plan to stop profit in batches at 94 93 92 91, and leave a small tail at the end to see how much it can reach😏
The probability of interest rate cut in May is very small, even in June😏
It is possible that the number will start with 8 or even 7 in May and June😜
ps: Let you say that I am a fake person☹️
#BTC #ETH #降息预期
It is impossible to keep rising. It is already going down.
My short position is opened at 96999, and it has started to make a profit.
I plan to stop profit in batches at 94 93 92 91, and leave a small tail at the end to see how much it can reach😏
The probability of interest rate cut in May is very small, even in June😏
It is possible that the number will start with 8 or even 7 in May and June😜
ps: Let you say that I am a fake person☹️
#BTC #ETH #降息预期
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The Fed cut interest rates by 50 basis points beyond expectations
$BTC
$ETH
The Fed's interest rate decision exceeded expectations by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. This rate cut may lead to risk aversion among investors.
For the bull market, the subsequent momentum is guaranteed. The current price has fallen after reaching 62,500. If the price cannot stabilize above 60,000, there may be a large wash down to 50,000.
Intraday operation:
At the current price of 62,000-625,000, you can try to enter a short order, with a target of 60,500. Stop loss 62,800
#新币挖矿HMSTR #token2049 #降息预期
$BTC
$ETH
The Fed's interest rate decision exceeded expectations by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points. This rate cut may lead to risk aversion among investors.
For the bull market, the subsequent momentum is guaranteed. The current price has fallen after reaching 62,500. If the price cannot stabilize above 60,000, there may be a large wash down to 50,000.
Intraday operation:
At the current price of 62,000-625,000, you can try to enter a short order, with a target of 60,500. Stop loss 62,800
#新币挖矿HMSTR #token2049 #降息预期
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No interest rate adjustment in November, no increase or decrease#非农人数大幅升温 #降息预期
The Fed's interest rate decision has an important impact on global markets, including cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. Interest rate cuts usually increase market liquidity, encourage more people to invest in high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies, and drive their prices up. For example, after the Fed cut interest rates in 2020, the price of Bitcoin rose by 1,600%. Conversely, interest rate hikes reduce liquidity, making high-risk assets such as Bitcoin less attractive. For example, during the Fed's interest rate hike in 2022, the price of Bitcoin fell by about 65%.
Bitcoin is often seen as a tool to fight inflation because its fixed supply makes it less susceptible to currency depreciation. As institutional investors gradually include it in their portfolios, the price of Bitcoin is expected to continue to rise. Although it will be affected by interest rate changes in the short term, in the long run, analysts predict that Bitcoin may reach new highs by the end of 2024, and may even break through $100,000.
Interest rate cuts are good for Bitcoin, while interest rate hikes are not. However, Bitcoin's long-term potential remains strong, especially in the current inflationary and macroeconomic environment, where many people regard it as a safe-haven asset.
$BTC
The Fed's interest rate decision has an important impact on global markets, including cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin. Interest rate cuts usually increase market liquidity, encourage more people to invest in high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies, and drive their prices up. For example, after the Fed cut interest rates in 2020, the price of Bitcoin rose by 1,600%. Conversely, interest rate hikes reduce liquidity, making high-risk assets such as Bitcoin less attractive. For example, during the Fed's interest rate hike in 2022, the price of Bitcoin fell by about 65%.
Bitcoin is often seen as a tool to fight inflation because its fixed supply makes it less susceptible to currency depreciation. As institutional investors gradually include it in their portfolios, the price of Bitcoin is expected to continue to rise. Although it will be affected by interest rate changes in the short term, in the long run, analysts predict that Bitcoin may reach new highs by the end of 2024, and may even break through $100,000.
Interest rate cuts are good for Bitcoin, while interest rate hikes are not. However, Bitcoin's long-term potential remains strong, especially in the current inflationary and macroeconomic environment, where many people regard it as a safe-haven asset.
$BTC
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It's over, it's over
A friend saw my bottom-fishing in the square and went all-in for 6u, and asked me if I would get liquidated😂, and said that if I saw the liquidation tomorrow, I would be responsible😅 Don't do this, I don't dare to post predictions if you do this😭
My suggestions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Please stay rational😅
#降息预期 #美国CPI
A friend saw my bottom-fishing in the square and went all-in for 6u, and asked me if I would get liquidated😂, and said that if I saw the liquidation tomorrow, I would be responsible😅 Don't do this, I don't dare to post predictions if you do this😭
My suggestions are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Please stay rational😅
#降息预期 #美国CPI
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#山寨季何时到来？ #BTC☀ #降息预期
The EU has announced a rate cut, which is in line with market expectations. So is the US rate cut far away?
The initial unemployment benefits in the US are also a small positive. Let's see if it can stand above 72,000 tonight. At the current position, every step is under great pressure.
$BTC
The EU has announced a rate cut, which is in line with market expectations. So is the US rate cut far away?
The initial unemployment benefits in the US are also a small positive. Let's see if it can stand above 72,000 tonight. At the current position, every step is under great pressure.
$BTC
$BTC #BTC突破7万大关
The price of the big cake is around 71000 in the morning trading today
It is estimated that it will have to wait until the early settlement at 8:30 and the EU interest rate meeting at 8:15
to see a big fluctuation. Find the right time and do it
The price of the big cake is around 71000 in the morning trading today
It is estimated that it will have to wait until the early settlement at 8:30 and the EU interest rate meeting at 8:15
to see a big fluctuation. Find the right time and do it
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#杰克逊霍尔年会
Fed: If inflation continues to fall, it will support rate cuts !!!
Fed Governor Bowman said she remains cautious about the policy shift because there are still upside risks to inflation, but if price growth continues to slow, it would be appropriate for the central bank to begin to gradually lower interest rates.
Under the current policy stance, inflation should continue to fall, and if future data continue to show that inflation is continuing to move toward our 2% target, it would be appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate to prevent monetary policy from becoming too restrictive.
Bowman believes that "further progress has been made in reducing inflation" in recent months, but upside risks remain due to "increased geopolitical tensions, additional fiscal stimulus measures, and increased housing demand caused by immigration."
It is worth noting that on Wednesday, Eastern Time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the preliminary report on the non-farm employment and wage census for the first quarter of 2024. Economists at JPMorgan Chase expect that the non-farm downward revision for this year will be about 360,000, but Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo expect at least 600,000 downward revisions.
If the downward revision of employment exceeds 501,000, it will be the largest in 15 years, indicating that the cooling of the labor market will take longer and may be more severe than previously thought. The data may also affect the tone of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. #美联储何时降息？ #降息预期 #新币挖矿DOGS
Fed: If inflation continues to fall, it will support rate cuts !!!
Fed Governor Bowman said she remains cautious about the policy shift because there are still upside risks to inflation, but if price growth continues to slow, it would be appropriate for the central bank to begin to gradually lower interest rates.
Under the current policy stance, inflation should continue to fall, and if future data continue to show that inflation is continuing to move toward our 2% target, it would be appropriate to gradually lower the federal funds rate to prevent monetary policy from becoming too restrictive.
Bowman believes that "further progress has been made in reducing inflation" in recent months, but upside risks remain due to "increased geopolitical tensions, additional fiscal stimulus measures, and increased housing demand caused by immigration."
It is worth noting that on Wednesday, Eastern Time, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the preliminary report on the non-farm employment and wage census for the first quarter of 2024. Economists at JPMorgan Chase expect that the non-farm downward revision for this year will be about 360,000, but Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo expect at least 600,000 downward revisions.
If the downward revision of employment exceeds 501,000, it will be the largest in 15 years, indicating that the cooling of the labor market will take longer and may be more severe than previously thought. The data may also affect the tone of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. #美联储何时降息？ #降息预期 #新币挖矿DOGS
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