BTC毒哥

Ethereum has not hit the bottom yet, and the decline will still come.

After the non-farm payroll data was released, there wasn't much change in the market. Although the data came in better than expected, this reduced the likelihood of interest rate cuts.

The market can fall or rise with just one excuse; you can say it's going to rise, as the data indeed exceeded expectations, indicating that the employment situation in the U.S. at least hasn't worsened.

For now, we will wait quietly for the U.S. stock market. Bitcoin is expected to return to around 105,500, and then a new round of decline will begin, with the first support level around 93k.

Since the data release was roughly in line with expectations and the market hasn't seen any significant volatility, the market's attention is mainly focused on the feud between Trump and Musk. It is said that they will have a phone call tonight; whether it will lead to another TACO flip remains to be seen.

The small circle of Shen Dan continues to lay out, seizing the opportunity.
$ETH $ETH $SOL
#非农就业数据来袭 #特朗普马斯克分歧 #加密市场回调

Are you just watching the excitement while he cuts you? Here's my take on the central line adjustment!

The early market was just a mouthpiece for trading, but now it's upgraded to a double act. One is Musk, the other is Trump, one plays the good cop while the other plays the bad cop, and they’re both hurling insults at each other, making you all fired up. But what’s the result? Tesla falls, U.S. stocks fall, and Bitcoin follows suit.

However, at the end of the day, these two are still tied by their interests; real conflict isn’t realistic. The show is for you to watch, while behind the scenes, they've already divided the profits. Musk is using verbal warfare to wage a psychological battle, forcing Trump to compromise. In plain terms, the troublemakers are emotions, and the profit-makers are capital.

That said, last night's drop in Bitcoin was indeed a bit fierce, but I saw some people in the market yelling “it’s crashing, it’s crashing.” Isn’t that a bit too sensitive? When it was up by 30,000 points, you kept your mouth shut, but when it drops by 5,000 points, you’re all wet in the pants? Then you really don’t deserve to play in this market!

Right now, it’s the big players, KOLs, shady exchanges, and the media working together to wash out the market. Don’t be foolish and laugh at their behavior; the show is performed for you, but they’re genuinely out to take your money!

Enough of that, back to Bitcoin. Technically, we need to repair the short cycle today; RSI and 4-hour MACD are oversold, and the daily line hopes to rebound based on tonight’s non-farm data.

The current key point is the 100,000 mark; it fell below 101,400 last night (which is the 0.382 retracement level), now we are waiting for it to come back strongly. The important support below is at 98,200 (0.5 retracement level), which is the cost-effective zone for medium-term buying; no rush for spot trading.

But can you pick up at 95K? It’s actually a bit difficult; big funds generally won’t let the price drop to the golden ratio 0.618 position, so it’s normal not to fill your spot order. Haven’t you learned anything in the crypto world these past few years? If it doesn’t drop to where you want, and doesn’t rise to where you want to chase, that’s just how it is.

Let’s get straight to the conclusion: it’s not wrong to call for bottom fishing now. But remember, it’s for a short-term rebound. The real medium-term bottom buying zone is at 98,200, and those who panic watching Musk and Trump argue, wake up, don’t play the role of a naive investor so cooperatively.

It is unclear whether the short-term small level will surge again, but it will eventually drop again.

Today's article is a brief update, and there hasn't been much change in the market; be patient and wait for the structure to emerge.
This mainly answers two questions:
First, will Bitcoin fall below 103068 again?
103068 is not the end of the 4-hour level correction, and there is a high probability that new lows will appear afterwards.

Second, will the short-term rebound continue to surge?
This is difficult to determine; the short-term 5-minute level and 15-minute level may not fully follow the predictions. The only thing that can be confirmed is that the short-term rebound will not break through 110700 again, and after the rebound, it will continue to drop below 103000. So, in reality, manage your position well; you can take profit on your short position below 103000 or even near 100000.

At the 1-hour level, there will ultimately be a drop below 103000, reaching near 100000, or a spike in the range of 95000~100000. However, before this wave of decline plays out, the ups and downs in the short term cannot be guaranteed 100%.

Now let's take a look at Ethereum; the short-term resistance above is at 2650. If it consolidates, it normally will not break through 2650 again. If it breaks through, it should go to around 2690~2700.

The current overall view of Ethereum is that the short-term movement here is merely a rebound within the 4-hour level correction, and after the rebound, it will again drop below 2450. Just like Bitcoin, the short-term ups and downs cannot be perfectly predicted; it requires everyone to manage their position and risk control well.

Still haven't figured out your trading strategy? The small circle will notify you of market changes in real-time.
$BTC $ETH $XRP
#Circle扩大IPO规模 #我的COS交易 #币安钱包TGE

The rolling warehouse in 2023-2024 has allowed my funds to reach 8 digits. Below, I will share the correct timing for rolling warehouses.

Four golden timings for rolling warehouses:

(1) Breakthrough after a long-term sideways movement: When the market has been in a sideways state for a long time, and volatility drops to a new low, once the market chooses a breakout direction, this is when rolling warehouses can be considered.

(2) Buying the dip during a bull market: In the wave of a bull market, the market experiences a strong rise, followed by a sudden drop. At this time, the rolling warehouse strategy can be considered to capture the buying opportunity.

(3) Breakthrough at the weekly level: When the market breaks through key resistance or support levels on the weekly chart, it is like breaking through a solid defense line. At this time, rolling warehouses can seize this breakthrough opportunity.

(4) Market sentiment and news events: When market sentiment is as changeable as the weather, or there are significant news events and policy changes that may shake the market, rolling warehouses can become your weapon.

Key points:
1. Only roll long positions: Avoid counter-trend operations; the bull market cycle in the cryptocurrency space is longer, and the upward trend is easier to capture.

2. Isolated position model: Use the exchange's "isolated margin +" model to isolate individual position risks and avoid total liquidation.

3. Leverage limitation: Even if the trend is clear, do not exceed 5x leverage to avoid extreme volatility leading to liquidation.

4. Emotion management: If you miss the opportunity to increase your position, do not chase the high; wait for a pullback or the next trend signal. If there is no clear buying or selling point, do not force a buy or sell. This may seem trivial, but it is actually very critical. Without a buying or selling point, forcing a trade is emotional trading. By achieving this, your trading skill can greatly improve. Of course, there is another issue: you must establish your own "buying and selling points". Each person has different personalities, capital sizes, and risk preferences, so buying and selling points are different for everyone. Each person's buying and selling point is unique and only suitable for themselves.
$ETH $BTC $BNB
#Circle扩大IPO规模 #我的COS交易 #美国加征关税

Foolproof operation for trading cryptocurrencies, simple and practical. Even if you are a new investor, you can operate easily with over 80% accuracy. You can buy and sell in the cryptocurrency market using this method!

1. The chosen coins must be in an upward trend; of course, those in consolidation are also acceptable, but those in a downward trend or with moving averages all pointing downwards should definitely not be selected.

2. Divide your funds into three equal parts. When the coin price breaks through the 5-day moving average, buy 30% of your position with light buying. When the coin price breaks through the 15-day moving average, buy another 30%. Similarly, buy the final 30% when it breaks through the 30-day moving average. This requirement must be strictly followed.

3. If the coin price does not continue to rise above the 15-day moving average after breaking through the 5-day moving average, but instead pulls back, as long as it does not break the 5-day line, maintain the original position. If it breaks, sell.

4. Similarly, if the coin price breaks through the 15-day moving average but does not continue to rise, hold as long as it does not break the 15-day moving average. If it breaks, sell 30% first. If it does not break the 5-day moving average, continue holding the 30% position.

5. When the coin price continues to rise above the 30-day moving average and then pulls back, sell according to the previous method.

6. Selling is the opposite. When the coin price is high and breaks below the 5-day line, sell 30% first. If it does not continue to fall, hold the remaining 60% of your position. If the 5-day, 15-day, and 30-day lines are all broken, sell everything. Do not hold any illusions.

In the past couple of days, various positive developments have frequently occurred in the cryptocurrency space, yet the market has not seen significant increases. Why is that?

Firstly, in Hong Kong, the U.S. has implemented legislation for stablecoins, which enhances the connection between the blockchain industry and the real economy.

Next, Ethereum is deepening its cooperation with major countries.

These are favorable events for the industry, beneficial for the development of the cryptocurrency market. The underlying infrastructure is becoming increasingly refined, and the number of practical applications is on the rise, leading to better industry growth.

However, relatively speaking, these are all long-term boosts for the market. Just because there are favorable developments does not mean that prices will rise; these positives lay the groundwork for the next new high.

In the short term, the main players have actually been offloading.

BTC's main contracts have been gradually offloaded since May 22, and currently, 90% has been sold. ETH's main contracts were slowly cleared out between May 11 and the price range of 2600-2700.

So why has the market remained so rigid for so long without dropping?

Because they need to slowly offload to retail investors, and many institutions have also started to FOMO into buying ETH spot.

This is why after May 17, the spot started to gradually increase, but it has never flowed out, because these large institutions are ETFs; they need to hold a certain amount of ETF spot without moving it.

Just wait, the non-farm payroll data released on Friday might be the moment for a sharp drop.

#ADP Data significantly negative for the dollar

Expected 110,000, actual just over 30,000

The anticipated interest rate cut may really be coming back

Trump has also spoken more than once
#我的COS交易 #美国加征关税

How much will Bitcoin be worth in 10 years?

Price predictions for Bitcoin over the next decade are polarized: optimistic forecasts generally point to over $1 million, while conservative models suggest a range of $400,000 to $800,000.
Price forecast panorama for 2035

A million dollars is a matter of faith, so everyone can just take a look, it's fine to brag about it, but don't take it seriously.
$ETH $XRP $BTC
#美国加征关税 #比特币大亨惊爆预言

This week's trading ideas

Since there hasn't been a further drop below 104,000, it's uncertain whether there will be another short-term rebound around or slightly above 106,500. However, it can be confirmed that even if there is another rebound here, it is likely to be the last 15-minute level rebound. Overall, the fifth wave of the 1-hour level decline is about to begin, with a target to watch around 100,000. A break below will look for a spike in the 95,000 to 100,000 range.

The overall correction of Ethereum has not ended. Some people say, "Why did Ethereum suddenly become strong today?" It didn't become strong; rather, it was supposed to rebound but couldn't for a long time, and then just when the rebound was about to happen, it surged up all at once. In our article on June 1st, we actually clearly mentioned that Ethereum's 1-hour rebound target is 2,600 to 2,620.

This phenomenon may continue to occur in the future: during a certain period of bullish market, Bitcoin and Ethereum rise in sync, with Bitcoin rebounding to the expected target first, while Ethereum lags behind. You might think Ethereum is weak, but then it quickly rises, reaching the target in just a few hours or even a little more than ten hours, as a few large bullish candles appear. The same goes for decline; you might think that a short-term rise has been significant, and Ethereum's correction shouldn't drop too much at once. However, while Bitcoin hasn’t dropped much, Ethereum can drop to the expected level in minutes.

Now, let's look at the overall trend direction:
Weekly level: direction is up, currently in a new weekly level uptrend, with an overall target above 150,000.
Daily level: direction is up, currently in a daily level rebound, with a target for this daily uptrend around 120,000 to 130,000.
4-hour level: direction is down, currently in a 4-hour level correction, overall first focus on the area around 100,000.
1-hour level: direction is down, about to enter the fifth wave of the 1-hour decline, pay attention to the strength.
15-minute level: direction is up, first focus on whether 104,000 can be broken, prepare for a possible another surge.

Finally, the trading suggestion is to short at 10.65-10.75, with a stop loss at 109k
$BTC $ETH
$XRP

#我的COS交易 #加密市场反弹 #Strategy增持比特币

How to distinguish whether the main force is unloading or consolidating?

1. Main Force Consolidation
As the name suggests, it is a method used by the main force to clean up before raising the price. The purpose is to reduce the selling pressure during the lifting process, thereby creating favorable conditions for subsequent lifting, so it won't look too bad during the cleaning, just a touch will suffice.

2. Main Force Unloading
After reaching several predetermined targets, the main force gradually transfers the chips in hand to retail investors through a series of methods. A typical characteristic is that the price is at a high level; even with favorable news, the price is difficult to continue rising and gradually shows a downward trend.

3. Distinction
Although both cleaning and unloading appear to be price fluctuations and changes in trading volume on the surface. Cleaning is the main force's method of chip cleaning to raise the price, and after the market cleaning ends, it continues to rise; while unloading is the main force's chip transfer to realize profits, which will enter a downward trend.

4. Distinction 2
Although the trading volume during cleaning will increase, it usually does not last long, and as the price stabilizes, the trading volume will gradually decrease; while the trading volume during unloading will continue to increase and break multiple supports, making it difficult for the price to turn back.
$ETH $BTC $XRP
#加密市场反弹 #Strategy增持比特币 #中心化与去中心化交易所

Will the market continue to drop, and should short positions consider taking profits?

Let's first take a look at the macro aspect. There is inconsistency within the U.S. judicial system, as well as with the government system, showing a chaotic situation, which greatly harms market confidence.
On Thursday, a U.S. federal judge stated that the temporary restraining order against the Trump administration's "ban on Harvard from recruiting international students" would be expanded. The highest court has not yet ruled, and the temporary stay issued by the U.S. Federal Circuit Court has paused the U.S. International Trade Court's ruling that prevented the Trump administration from implementing global tariffs. At the same time, the federal judge also halted the ban on Harvard University recruiting international students and maintained the visas.

After the court system faced setbacks, Trump quickly changed his previously stubborn tone and met with Powell. Although he later stated that no consensus was reached regarding interest rate cuts, both sides continued to express their views, one side saying they want to observe inflation and employment, while the other said it was too late for a cut. However, the fact that they could meet is already a sign of easing tensions; it can also be said that if there is no consistency, a major problem may arise.

Finally, looking at the data, last night, the U.S. first-quarter GDP was slightly revised from -0.3% to -0.2%, and the PCE price index was revised down to 3.4%. Taken together, this conveys a signal that the economy is not as bad as expected and that prices are under control. Subsequently, news came out that there would be no interest rate cuts due to this matter, which led to a market decline.
Tonight, the focus should still be on the core PCE data for April that will be released tonight.
Conservative short positions can consider taking profits, but specifics should wait for the data release.
Poison Brother will also notify fans in the small circle at the first time to ambush.
Divine order continues to be laid out.
$ETH $BTC $SOL
#加密市场回调 #美国加征关税 #比特币2025大会

If we review this round of market trends, we can say that BTC's entire process from $75,000 to $110,000 was rapid and rhythmic. Each surge was accompanied by corresponding 'U.S. events'; for example, the China-U.S. trade talks, Trump calling to buy U.S. stocks, the passage of the first state reserve bill, stablecoin legislation, and so on.

From the RMMPC data, we can see that the wave in March 2024 was driven by funds from Asia and the U.S. (the red line and blue line are equally high), and the exit was also almost simultaneous from the U.S. and Asia, after which BTC began to switch to a rhythm of fluctuating downwards.

From November 2024, the rise from $70,000 to $100,000 was led by Asian funds (the red line is higher than the blue line), while U.S. funds merely followed; but during the exit, the U.S. withdrew first until Asian funds could not hold on, and BTC reached a temporary peak and began to enter a rhythm of 'correction-rebound-correction'.

This time, the path of the surge is significantly different from the previous two. This time it was entirely driven by U.S. funds rapidly pushing under various 'U.S. events'; while Asian funds began to withdraw in advance after BTC rebounded and broke $100,000 (the blue line and red line are completely opposite), with the new high from $100,000 to $110,000 having almost nothing to do with Asian funds.

'It takes a thief to catch a thief' — therefore, the 'endpoint' or possible 'turning point' of this rebound will also be determined by U.S. funds.

From the data, starting May 24, U.S. regional sentiment began to weaken, but the Asian region remained relatively strong, which is why BTC prices have still maintained a high level of sideways movement.

So now, the complex problem has become simpler, which is to see how Trump’s 'words' will magically keep coming up with new tricks to stimulate U.S. investor sentiment. If all positive expectations have already been priced in, and there are no new narratives to fill in, then according to the current situation, it seems there is at least a slight feeling of subsequent weakness in sentiment.

We will continue to keep an eye on this; I will notify my small circle immediately if there are any abnormalities.
$ETH $BTC $XRP

#美国加征关税 #巨鲸JamesWynn动态 #马斯克宣布离开特朗普政府

Can Ethereum stabilize at 2700 today?

The small circle has already started to enjoy the benefits
$ETH
#以太坊ETF的批准预期

The conference is about to begin, and after the market rises, it will rapidly decline.

The current market situation has reached an extremely complex state:

On one hand, there are many reasonable and persuasive reasons to remain optimistic about the market breaking new highs again.
On the other hand, **extremely volatile price action (PA)** continuously challenges our beliefs,
leading most people to either be 'squeezed' in repeated back-and-forth movements or forced to stay out of the entire upward process.

As for me, I still maintain a bearish outlook:

1. Trade tariff issues continue to substantially impact global economic growth, and under Trump's leadership, there is no long-term clarity;

2. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains high, undermining the upward potential of risk assets;

3. The rise of Bitcoin seems to be driven by 'unnatural' buying—fueled by the optimism of traditional retail investors, attracting a slew of imitators, which is usually a sign of strategy hitting a peak.

Additionally, there is an ongoing Bitcoin conference, which can significantly influence market trends. There was a similar conference in June 2021, where the market initially rose and then fell, and it is very likely that this time will repeat the previous rhythm. Therefore, partners who are shorting should not have overly heavy positions to avoid liquidation due to a market rise, and I will also timely disclose key information within my small circle.

Intraday focus: ENA TON DEGO
The small circle $TON has already achieved profits.
$ETH $BTC
#比特币2025大会 #TON #特朗普媒体科技集团比特币财库

Bitcoin Critical Point: Breakthrough Imminent or Another Pullback?

Bitcoin is currently in a typical box consolidation pattern. After surging to around 110,000 USD, it has retreated, forming a clear consolidation range. In the past few days, there has been ample space for long and short trading operations, with long positions above 107,000 and short positions near 109,500, successfully capturing short-term opportunities several times, and many investors have doubled their profits.
Today in the morning, BTC quickly dipped to 107,520, briefly hitting the preset target, but then rebounded strongly, making the missed opportunity for low-position long orders somewhat regrettable. The current price is once again approaching the 110,000 resistance area, sparking discussions about whether to "continue shorting".

From a strategic perspective, short positions can still be established, but one must be cautious of breakout risks. Box consolidation will not continue indefinitely and will ultimately choose a direction. The key is to set proper stop-loss levels and be alert to false breakout signals. A more prudent operation is to wait for a price to false break and then fall back into the range before entering short, which typically represents a weaker market with better win rates and risk-reward ratios. However, such opportunities are rare, and the trading frequency is relatively low. Whether going long or short, the current stage presents both risks and opportunities, requiring flexible responses with small positions and a focus on capital management.
$BTC $UNI $WCT
#比特币2025大会 #特朗普媒体科技集团比特币财库 #Strategy增持比特币

British version of the famous old gambler in the cryptocurrency field, contract whale James

Recently, the former PEPE coin big shot has transformed into a contract whale, frequently opening contracts worth hundreds of millions of dollars on Hyperliquid, attracting market attention. As one of the few whales publicly active in the Hyperliquid community, James's daily position changes have become a hot topic of interest for many investors.

James's English name is James Wynn. According to his self-description on Twitter, he was born in a 'forgotten small town' in England, filled with crime, drugs, alcohol, and poverty. James stated that he lived in dire conditions from a young age, 'barely making ends meet each week.'
In 2022, after getting into cryptocurrency, James became a member of the 10 U War God. He often floated between several ultra-small MEME coins. Subsequently, James chose to heavily invest in PEPE and made tens of millions of dollars as a result.

From the information on social media, James started joining Twitter in 2023, with almost all of his initial content focusing on the promotion and advertising of the PEPE coin. In April 2023, James predicted that the market cap of the PEPE token would rise to 4.2 billion dollars, while the market cap at that time was 4.2 million dollars. By October 2024, the market cap of PEPE had broken through 10 billion dollars, becoming one of the highest market cap MEME coins.

During this process, as one of the largest holders of PEPE coin, James also earned a huge profit. In his trading of PEPE, his principal was only 7,600 dollars, and by April 2024, his earnings had exceeded 25 million dollars. James's overall profit from PEPE coin could exceed 50 million dollars.
By 2024, with the successful creation of the PEPE god persona, James's posts began to involve more MEME coins like BIAO, ANDY, and WOLF. He also often posts about new tokens for hype. In April 2024, James recommended a token named ELON and then went on to promote it frantically in the following days, similar to how he recommended PEPE. After the token surged a hundredfold, James claimed that the token had issues and stated he had liquidated his position in that token.

$PEPE $XRP $BTC
#凉兮 #james #比特币2025大会