麻子新
PEPE Holder
Frequent Trader
4.8 Years
遵循财富的边际和认知是客观的定律，逆袭和跨越阶层需要黄金机遇。公众号：Elom新 微博：麻子新
22 Following
12.6K+ Followers
28.4K+ Liked
2.8K+ Shared
All
Quotes
Videos
See original
PINNED
Open -- Contract -- Today's Profit and Loss -- Funding Fees and Transaction Fees.
You can see your fees for the past year. If you should spend, save what you can!
Use my link to automatically reverse 20% and manually reverse 15%, which means you can reduce 35% of the fees, which should be the highest in the entire network. The manual reverse part is settled once a month. Don't underestimate the fees. Even if you are a small retail investor, the fees you incur in a year are unimaginable! If you trade frequently, you may save enough to buy a BBA in a year.
Xiaoxin exclusive link: https://www.marketwebb.club/join?ref=RC67WKBY
Exclusive invitation code: RC67WKBY
What if you have already registered? I can give you a tutorial. You don't need to change your mobile phone number or identity to re-authenticate. It only takes about ten minutes to get it done!
币安聊天室链接！
$BNB
You can see your fees for the past year. If you should spend, save what you can!
Use my link to automatically reverse 20% and manually reverse 15%, which means you can reduce 35% of the fees, which should be the highest in the entire network. The manual reverse part is settled once a month. Don't underestimate the fees. Even if you are a small retail investor, the fees you incur in a year are unimaginable! If you trade frequently, you may save enough to buy a BBA in a year.
Xiaoxin exclusive link: https://www.marketwebb.club/join?ref=RC67WKBY
Exclusive invitation code: RC67WKBY
What if you have already registered? I can give you a tutorial. You don't need to change your mobile phone number or identity to re-authenticate. It only takes about ten minutes to get it done!
币安聊天室链接！
$BNB
See original
PINNED
As someone whose account peaked at 17 million dollars but has now withdrawn to over 500, I’d like to offer some advice. 这是回撤之后的持仓！
Videos cannot write long articles; I will write in the next article and reference this one. These are my reflections and insights from the past few months, explaining why we are in the current situation.
The video is from March 2024, when $ICP made a significant profit. If there are critics who want me to record a screen with over 10 million dollars in holdings, I wouldn’t be able to do it because my current position is not that large anymore.
However, I am very confident that I can return to my peak and even surpass it. I spent three months reflecting on this mistake and realized that no matter how much I lost, it was a valuable lesson.
Videos cannot write long articles; I will write in the next article and reference this one. These are my reflections and insights from the past few months, explaining why we are in the current situation.
The video is from March 2024, when $ICP made a significant profit. If there are critics who want me to record a screen with over 10 million dollars in holdings, I wouldn’t be able to do it because my current position is not that large anymore.
However, I am very confident that I can return to my peak and even surpass it. I spent three months reflecting on this mistake and realized that no matter how much I lost, it was a valuable lesson.
See original
$LAYER has a brother asking if it has hit the bottom on the daily chart and if he can buy it now?
To be honest, buying it means you are just adding liquidity yourself. This coin has already completed its own cycle, and there are many people stuck above waiting to sell. Playing with it is somewhat going against yourself.
Moreover, this kind of coin only has one chance for the main force, and the reason is that they can't recover their chips, as everyone is stuck and no one is selling.
To be honest, buying it means you are just adding liquidity yourself. This coin has already completed its own cycle, and there are many people stuck above waiting to sell. Playing with it is somewhat going against yourself.
Moreover, this kind of coin only has one chance for the main force, and the reason is that they can't recover their chips, as everyone is stuck and no one is selling.
See original
$ENA continues to push up, there have already been more than 20 points of rebound from last night to today. Some brothers are asking why other altcoins are not rising, but it is standing out alone. The reason is in the previous post, it's because of the repurchase agreement, so for the short term, just focus on the repurchase agreement.
麻子新
--
$ENA just as I thought, it was received right on time. This repurchase agreement by ena is destined to be very strong in the short term!
See original
Ethereum has no historical trend to reference at all. If we really want to refer to it, the 4100 mark is considered the real starting point, facing monthly level pressure. Every time it reaches this position, there will be a monthly level correction.
So, it's best not to FOMO at this position. Counting everything, there is only less than 10% to the monthly pressure level. I feel that around 4000, at least a part of the position should be reduced to manage risk.
If it breaks through the daily pressure, then consider re-entering the reduced position. There won't be too much loss, and if the monthly level pressure leads to a monthly level correction again, your reduced position not only secures profits but also allows you to continue buying.
In fact, this market is not about achieving 100% accuracy; rather, it’s about the flexible use of strategies and positions. If you bet on a 100% win rate every time, then if you lose once, you lose everything.
There’s no intention of preaching, just objectively stating a fact! $ETH
So, it's best not to FOMO at this position. Counting everything, there is only less than 10% to the monthly pressure level. I feel that around 4000, at least a part of the position should be reduced to manage risk.
If it breaks through the daily pressure, then consider re-entering the reduced position. There won't be too much loss, and if the monthly level pressure leads to a monthly level correction again, your reduced position not only secures profits but also allows you to continue buying.
In fact, this market is not about achieving 100% accuracy; rather, it’s about the flexible use of strategies and positions. If you bet on a 100% win rate every time, then if you lose once, you lose everything.
There’s no intention of preaching, just objectively stating a fact! $ETH
See original
May I ask what level of cultivation you all have? I am at the first layer of Qi Refinement.
See original
Yesterday we talked a bit about $SOL being not promising, some brothers said it was wrong, SOL is a rather awkward coin.
You say it's a major coin, that's somewhat accurate, it drops sharply.
Look at BTC, ETH, BNB, and XRP, they are still quite stable.
You say it's a small altcoin, that's also not right, its market value is close to a trillion.
So playing contracts is a bit scary, the current SOL is somewhat like ETH in April,
when it drops, it's quite exaggerated, and the spikes are also very intense.
You say it's a major coin, that's somewhat accurate, it drops sharply.
Look at BTC, ETH, BNB, and XRP, they are still quite stable.
You say it's a small altcoin, that's also not right, its market value is close to a trillion.
So playing contracts is a bit scary, the current SOL is somewhat like ETH in April,
when it drops, it's quite exaggerated, and the spikes are also very intense.
麻子新
--
In fact, I don't have much expectation for SOL, after all, it's just reheating cold rice. Looking back, the main force entered in 2023 and then drove the meme craze, pulling $SOL from $8 to over $300, nearly 35 times. Moreover, the main force for SOL has long sold off since 2023.
If you don't believe it, just look at the current memes; they are basically all underperforming. The new meme wealth creation myths haven't appeared for a long time, and the reason is that there are no main forces playing anymore. Otherwise, how do you think those once-celebrated meme stories of overnight wealth came about?
The exchange rates of SOL/BTC and SOL/ETH will continue to fluctuate downward in the long term, and this will likely continue. It's time to lower expectations.
Now that the price of $SOL is 180, even if it rallies, it won't exceed 220. If you look at the risk-reward ratio, it's just about that. But if it really has to drop, then it's hard to say how much.
Let's still focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum as the main ones, and if not, you can study $BNB thoroughly!
If you don't believe it, just look at the current memes; they are basically all underperforming. The new meme wealth creation myths haven't appeared for a long time, and the reason is that there are no main forces playing anymore. Otherwise, how do you think those once-celebrated meme stories of overnight wealth came about?
The exchange rates of SOL/BTC and SOL/ETH will continue to fluctuate downward in the long term, and this will likely continue. It's time to lower expectations.
Now that the price of $SOL is 180, even if it rallies, it won't exceed 220. If you look at the risk-reward ratio, it's just about that. But if it really has to drop, then it's hard to say how much.
Let's still focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum as the main ones, and if not, you can study $BNB thoroughly!
See original
Powell's attitude remains tough, which lowers the probability of a rate cut in September. Before his speech, the probability of not cutting rates in September was 33.6%, and after his speech, the probability increased to 51%.
Powell demonstrated through action that the Federal Reserve will not be influenced by political interference. Future inflation is likely to be affected by tariffs, and until the tariffs are fully implemented, the Federal Reserve will not take any preemptive actions!
He also expressed multiple times that the Federal Reserve needs to see more data before deciding on the interest rate trend in September. This also means that if Powell and the Federal Reserve remain steadfast, then as long as the tariffs are not fully implemented and show an impact on inflation, the possibility of a rate cut in September is not arranged by the Federal Reserve.
Wow, old Powell is really tough! $BTC
Powell demonstrated through action that the Federal Reserve will not be influenced by political interference. Future inflation is likely to be affected by tariffs, and until the tariffs are fully implemented, the Federal Reserve will not take any preemptive actions!
He also expressed multiple times that the Federal Reserve needs to see more data before deciding on the interest rate trend in September. This also means that if Powell and the Federal Reserve remain steadfast, then as long as the tariffs are not fully implemented and show an impact on inflation, the possibility of a rate cut in September is not arranged by the Federal Reserve.
Wow, old Powell is really tough! $BTC
See original
Follow up, for example, if the US GDP in the second quarter exceeds expectations and is strong
Fed's Waller and Bowman directly oppose each other,
If Powell stubbornly insists on a hawkish stance
Thursday's inflation data rebounds
Friday's employment data remains stable
Then this will greatly impact the market!
At this time, I actually hope Waller and Bowman can stay calm; if they irritate Powell, in the remaining few months of his term, he actually wouldn't mind maintaining high interest rates, and the economic data also aligns with this direction.
In summary, it's best to rest early tonight and go to bed; regardless of the turmoil, we will see what happens when we wake up tomorrow!
Fed's Waller and Bowman directly oppose each other,
If Powell stubbornly insists on a hawkish stance
Thursday's inflation data rebounds
Friday's employment data remains stable
Then this will greatly impact the market!
At this time, I actually hope Waller and Bowman can stay calm; if they irritate Powell, in the remaining few months of his term, he actually wouldn't mind maintaining high interest rates, and the economic data also aligns with this direction.
In summary, it's best to rest early tonight and go to bed; regardless of the turmoil, we will see what happens when we wake up tomorrow!
麻子新
--
The Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate decision at two o'clock this morning currently shows a 97% probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged, and it would be unexpected if there were no miracles.
If Powell mentions the impact of tariffs on inflation during the meeting, that would indeed be quite hawkish language. Anyway, it won't be easy tonight, so brothers who have time to stay up, take a look.
Brothers who don't have time to stay up should refrain from trading; it's not too late to check after waking up tomorrow! $BTC
If Powell mentions the impact of tariffs on inflation during the meeting, that would indeed be quite hawkish language. Anyway, it won't be easy tonight, so brothers who have time to stay up, take a look.
Brothers who don't have time to stay up should refrain from trading; it's not too late to check after waking up tomorrow! $BTC
See original
The Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate decision at two o'clock this morning currently shows a 97% probability of maintaining the interest rate unchanged, and it would be unexpected if there were no miracles.
If Powell mentions the impact of tariffs on inflation during the meeting, that would indeed be quite hawkish language. Anyway, it won't be easy tonight, so brothers who have time to stay up, take a look.
Brothers who don't have time to stay up should refrain from trading; it's not too late to check after waking up tomorrow! $BTC
If Powell mentions the impact of tariffs on inflation during the meeting, that would indeed be quite hawkish language. Anyway, it won't be easy tonight, so brothers who have time to stay up, take a look.
Brothers who don't have time to stay up should refrain from trading; it's not too late to check after waking up tomorrow! $BTC
See original
Let's draw a standard trading trend and the underlying logic for everyone's reference. Everything is interconnected; for the market makers, there is only one trading strategy: sell high and buy low (minimizing costs to extract maximum liquidity).
The structure in the image below is the most basic; other trends are essentially variations of this trend, such as multiple rallies and distributions rather than just a single distribution (forgive my poor drawing skills; I've smeared ink everywhere, and after finishing the text, I went to wash my hands...)
Image 1: On-chain assets. Image 2: Secondary assets.
The structure in the image below is the most basic; other trends are essentially variations of this trend, such as multiple rallies and distributions rather than just a single distribution (forgive my poor drawing skills; I've smeared ink everywhere, and after finishing the text, I went to wash my hands...)
Image 1: On-chain assets. Image 2: Secondary assets.
See original
The significance of volatility lies in the extraction of liquidity. Bulls believe they can win, while bears are convinced they are right, both increasing their positions in favorable waves, and funds naturally flow in.
As the volatility approaches its end, both bulls and bears are exhausted and have lost their temper, the floating chips are reduced, and the next wave of market movement is about to begin.
This round of ETH's bull-bear showdown is particularly fierce, with one side represented by the stubborn E Guardians and the other by the ETH bears who have held out for two years; the conflict intensifies as we move further along. $ETH
As the volatility approaches its end, both bulls and bears are exhausted and have lost their temper, the floating chips are reduced, and the next wave of market movement is about to begin.
This round of ETH's bull-bear showdown is particularly fierce, with one side represented by the stubborn E Guardians and the other by the ETH bears who have held out for two years; the conflict intensifies as we move further along. $ETH
See original
That season everyone is looking forward to hasn't arrived yet, liquidity has not yet improved, it seems that only interest rate cuts can bring about a real climax!
See original
The Xiaoshan Zhai season is expected to reach a small peak in the first week of August.
What stable blue chips do we still have that are worth speculating on?
$UNI Angstrom decentralized exchange has been launched, based on the Uniswap v4 architecture, which can redistribute MEV profits to liquidity providers.
$AAVE, $ETH Aave announced a risk premium mechanism that will be introduced in Aave v4, allowing high-quality collateral like ETH to enjoy lower borrowing costs.
$ENA, $USDtb Ethena is collaborating with Anchorage to convert USDtb into an onshore stablecoin compliant with U.S. federal regulations.
$DOGE Dogecoin developers are discussing the native verification of zero-knowledge proofs on the main chain, which will become the first mainstream PoW chain to support this feature.
$BNB Binance has launched the principal-protected Earn product RWUSD, with a maximum annualized return of 4.2%, with earnings coming from tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds and other RWAs.
What stable blue chips do we still have that are worth speculating on?
$UNI Angstrom decentralized exchange has been launched, based on the Uniswap v4 architecture, which can redistribute MEV profits to liquidity providers.
$AAVE, $ETH Aave announced a risk premium mechanism that will be introduced in Aave v4, allowing high-quality collateral like ETH to enjoy lower borrowing costs.
$ENA, $USDtb Ethena is collaborating with Anchorage to convert USDtb into an onshore stablecoin compliant with U.S. federal regulations.
$DOGE Dogecoin developers are discussing the native verification of zero-knowledge proofs on the main chain, which will become the first mainstream PoW chain to support this feature.
$BNB Binance has launched the principal-protected Earn product RWUSD, with a maximum annualized return of 4.2%, with earnings coming from tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds and other RWAs.
See original
In fact, I don't have much expectation for SOL, after all, it's just reheating cold rice. Looking back, the main force entered in 2023 and then drove the meme craze, pulling $SOL from $8 to over $300, nearly 35 times. Moreover, the main force for SOL has long sold off since 2023.
If you don't believe it, just look at the current memes; they are basically all underperforming. The new meme wealth creation myths haven't appeared for a long time, and the reason is that there are no main forces playing anymore. Otherwise, how do you think those once-celebrated meme stories of overnight wealth came about?
The exchange rates of SOL/BTC and SOL/ETH will continue to fluctuate downward in the long term, and this will likely continue. It's time to lower expectations.
Now that the price of $SOL is 180, even if it rallies, it won't exceed 220. If you look at the risk-reward ratio, it's just about that. But if it really has to drop, then it's hard to say how much.
Let's still focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum as the main ones, and if not, you can study $BNB thoroughly!
If you don't believe it, just look at the current memes; they are basically all underperforming. The new meme wealth creation myths haven't appeared for a long time, and the reason is that there are no main forces playing anymore. Otherwise, how do you think those once-celebrated meme stories of overnight wealth came about?
The exchange rates of SOL/BTC and SOL/ETH will continue to fluctuate downward in the long term, and this will likely continue. It's time to lower expectations.
Now that the price of $SOL is 180, even if it rallies, it won't exceed 220. If you look at the risk-reward ratio, it's just about that. But if it really has to drop, then it's hard to say how much.
Let's still focus on Bitcoin and Ethereum as the main ones, and if not, you can study $BNB thoroughly!
See original
September begins the interest rate reduction cycle
It is entering the interest rate reduction cycle, not just a single reduction
The meaning of the interest rate reduction cycle is to reduce once every few months
In September, a major project from the Trump family will also be launched
Why worry about not making money? Opportunities to earn money are on the way. Even if the market is currently sluggish, you must double down on self-improvement and not relax; otherwise, you will become out of touch!
It is entering the interest rate reduction cycle, not just a single reduction
The meaning of the interest rate reduction cycle is to reduce once every few months
In September, a major project from the Trump family will also be launched
Why worry about not making money? Opportunities to earn money are on the way. Even if the market is currently sluggish, you must double down on self-improvement and not relax; otherwise, you will become out of touch!
Login to explore more contents