Elom新

Open -- Contract -- Today's Profit and Loss -- Funding Fees and Transaction Fees.
You can see your fees for the past year. If you should spend, save what you can!

Use my link to automatically reverse 20% and manually reverse 15%, which means you can reduce 35% of the fees, which should be the highest in the entire network. The manual reverse part is settled once a month. Don't underestimate the fees. Even if you are a small retail investor, the fees you incur in a year are unimaginable! If you trade frequently, you may save enough to buy a BBA in a year.

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币安聊天室链接！

$BNB

The counterfeit is only smooth when it falls; it's a pile of junk, the market makers have also given up, no one is playing, no liquidity, it shows you a good pattern with a slight rise, then suddenly a move: ambush.

Whether it's a cooling mat, James, or the recent Sha Ying Capital, they all belong to a category of extraordinary beings. The differences in courage, genes, innate talents, reaction capabilities, and mental quality are not something ordinary people can compare to; they are a very small part of humanity that completely exceeds the ordinary. So stop thinking about copying others; you are not them, and they will not become you.

In the crypto contract world, no matter how much you earn while mixing in, you will eventually pay it back. This is an iron law, a cause and effect. Over the years, I have only admired one person: Fatty Bitcoin, who turned 1 million into 200 million, and then, simply left the table, quitting the game. This is what true ruthlessness looks like—self-control and ultimate mastery over human greed.

After a while of hitting and talking, I was really disgusted, and then all narratives were debunked, and new narratives have yet to appear; on-chain activity is structurally declining, on-chain behavior is all about extracting benefits, short-term speculation, and capital arbitrage, with basically no native demand.

The user structure has deteriorated extremely, value investing is completely dead, PvP has also entered a death spiral, and we have already entered nihilism!

Currently, without new viewpoints appearing, the old viewpoints continue; this month is really just like this.

The market that will be discussed shortly is completely controlled by them, and a one-ear campaign is truly the biggest blunder! $BTC

Good news, the altcoin season is here, but it belongs to the U.S. stock market!

The altcoin season in the cryptocurrency space is an awkward situation in the U.S. stock market. Looking back at the past two and a half years, the wealth effect of cryptocurrency has actually been quite poor. Not to mention Bitcoin, there are very few small coins that have outperformed Nvidia, let alone $PLTR, $APP, and in the realm of coin stocks, $COIN, $MSTR, $HOOD. A short-term pulse is meaningless; what matters more is whether it can return after adjustments. However, many coins in the market (and many hot stocks in the U.S. stock market may be the same) can only make one pulse and never return. From the perspective of assets, in addition to returns, we also need to look at sustainability and certainty. $BTC

This position has been fluctuating for at least a month; you can't just wait for the sword while the boat is moving! $BTC

If the position is heavy, then reduce a bit on the rebound. In fact, looking at the recent funding activity, it mainly revolves around Bitcoin and Ethereum, and then DeFi. Although Solana seems to have some strength, the funding activity is slightly weaker and not that strong!

In fact, it will be difficult for the market to break a new high in the near future. Although it's unwise to wait for the sword in the boat, the recent market trend resembles that of July last year, stuck in a position that is neither up nor down!

From a structural perspective, there’s no need to be overly emotional. Currently, there’s too little circulating Bitcoin in the market. Compared to the time of the Russia-Ukraine war when there was no ETF, news would cause a drop of more than ten percent instantly; this time, the impact is much smaller.

Looking at the short term, a psychological barrier at one hundred thousand is present for most funds. If buying pressure doesn't break, it will provide support; on the contrary, if it breaks, it may accelerate a bit.

Then there's the Trump family again planning to issue B, really just to circle and suck liquidity in such a poor state!

Additionally, the stablecoin bill will be voted on in the House on the 18th. If passed, it will be considered a positive development.

Finally, regarding the situation in the Middle East and whether oil prices will continue to surge, if they keep rising, inflation expectations will escalate, and the expectations for rate cuts in September will decrease. However, I believe the probability of a rate cut in September is over 90%!

A Tale of Israel and Iran
Everyone knows that Israel is Judaism
Iran is Islam
Judaism and Islam share a common ancestor: Abraham

Abraham's first wife was Sarah, who was infertile in her youth
Then this first wife arranged for
her maidservant to bear a son for Abraham named: Ishmael
As a result, after the arrangement, the first wife herself became pregnant
The first wife bore Abraham a second son named: Isaac

After giving birth, the first wife wanted to expel the maidservant and the firstborn from their home
After all, she couldn't threaten her own son's "inheritance rights"
Later, the firstborn Ishmael became the ancestor of Muhammad
While Judaism and Christianity believe that the son born to the first wife, Isaac, is the legitimate heir.
It turns out the origin of the Israeli-Iranian issue is a palace intrigue drama in the Middle East #以色列伊朗冲突

How much money will you choose to retire?
A: 5 million
B: 10 million
C: 100 million
D: over 1 billion

Most people need to go through at least 2 cycles to make money in the investment market. According to the Kitchin cycle, this takes about 6-8 years.
In the first cycle of entering the market, most people are at the peak of ignorance. Due to their lack of knowledge, they become arrogant, thinking they are very capable, mainly chasing market trends, following what KOLs say, mistaking luck for skill. The money earned by luck will eventually be lost due to lack of skill, and when the market enters a downward cycle, they end up losing a lot.

In the second cycle, most people enter the valley of despair. Based on the experiences from the first cycle, they begin to be cautious, but due to a lack of an investment system, they miss many opportunities in a state of half-belief and half-doubt. Moreover, lacking cycle awareness, they often engage in short-term trading, ultimately making bold moves only to find themselves in the same spot. However, many people manage to preserve their principal in the second round, making slight profits and beginning to establish an initial investment system, developing a greater respect for the market.

In the third cycle, they gradually enter the path of enlightenment, starting to seek their inner reasons, realizing the importance of learning. Through learning, they gradually develop cycle awareness, learn to manage their positions, think critically while standing opposite the crowd, filter out their true KOLs, and humbly learn. They understand the value of going with the trend, leveraging the power of others, and that valuable things are worth paying for. This round generally leads to a stair-step increase in assets.

In the fourth cycle, they enter the subconscious stage, remaining unperturbed by praise or blame. At this stage, they no longer argue with fools, remaining calm and respectful of others' destinies. They pay more attention to their inner thoughts, contemplate what happiness in life means, seek their passions, cultivate the ability to achieve happiness, focus on family education and the development of the next generation's thinking, learn to embrace the power of trends, look for great industries and great companies to grow with, and restrain their desires from being watered by money.

Shanzhai has always been a concern for everyone, but has there been no progress due to insufficient liquidity?

It seems so; it's not that the market doesn't need a Shanzhai season, but rather that the current liquidity does not support the outbreak of a Shanzhai season, especially during times of monetary tightening. However, when monetary easing occurs, I believe a Shanzhai season will still appear.

The US stock market is a good example. Compared to the US stock market, the cryptocurrency market is too young, so young that this is the first time in history that the halving cycle of Bitcoin overlaps with the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening, leading to insufficient liquidity!

But when the easing cycle arrives, all problems will be resolved. This cycle is monetary policy; during easing, liquidity is better, risk appetite for investment increases, and investors are more willing to invest in high-growth, high-risk assets. During monetary tightening, more investments are made in defensive assets.

What is the current situation? Many projects are controlled by over 99%, yet they paint a rosy picture without liquidity to support it, and the retail investors do not believe in any stories.

As discussed before, when the market shifts towards having certain applications, it indicates that the project can at least guarantee its own earnings. Having earnings ensures cash flow and funds to sustain the team.

The projects that are least capable of generating their own cash flow have teams that are more focused on how to offload their tokens because they need to support themselves; they need money for food. Without their own earnings, the only way to liquidate is to cut the retail investors!

Also, for teams without money, can you expect them to have funds to pump the market? When funds come in, they are eager to sell immediately. Gradually, these will all be eliminated.

Ultimately, when you look at Shanzhai, there are three key points:
1. Does the product or service create value for users?
2. Can it generate revenue and growth?
3. Can the token capture this revenue?

Perhaps some may not know which direction to research; you can look at projects like Aave, Uniswap, Suihi, and Compound, which can create value for their own protocols.

The issue of altcoin season has always been deeply ingrained in the hearts of every investor, but we have to acknowledge a fact: altcoin season is closely related to liquidity!

It’s not that the market doesn’t need an altcoin season, but rather that the current liquidity does not support the explosion of an altcoin season, especially during times of monetary tightening. However, when the monetary easing period arrives, I believe altcoin season will still appear.

The U.S. stock market is a good example. Compared to the U.S. stock market, the time for cryptocurrencies is too short, so short that this is the first time in history that the $BTC halving cycle overlaps with the Federal Reserve's monetary tightening, leading to a lack of liquidity!

But when the easing cycle arrives, all problems will be resolved. This cycle is monetary policy; during easing, liquidity is better, risk appetite for investments increases, and investors are more willing to invest in high-growth, high-risk assets. During monetary tightening, more investments are in defensive assets.

So I believe that altcoin season will definitely come, although it may involve a long and painful wait, hold onto expectations and be cautious with positions! ##以色列伊朗冲突

Starting from the beginning of 2023, there will be at least one to two waves of hot market trends every year. Since we know there are market trends, how should we grasp them?

First, let's look back at the historical average pullback cycle, which is around 5 months.
The rising cycle is about 4 months. The larger the increase in Bitcoin, the larger the pullback will be, and vice versa.

The current market situation is a medium-term small rebound and does not reflect the characteristics of altcoins. Therefore, if we ignore this wave, the market might appear in the early fourth quarter. At that time, we should be bold yet careful!

As for bottom fishing, stop predicting prices; in the end, it often backfires. I will keep track of it in real-time when it drops.

This wave of decline is over. Brothers who still hold expectations for altcoins should pay attention to the Ethereum ecosystem:

With the knowledge that there is still one wave of the bull market, early beneficiaries will choose to speculate later, only needing a small amount of funds to benefit enough to make DeFi bounce a bit. Other sectors do not require capital flow anymore; sector rotation will be sufficient.

The focus should be on ETH, AAVE, MKR, SSV, UNI, etc. Anyway, the Ethereum series will be very strong.

Especially AAVE MKR, AAVE/ETH, MKR/BTC are all very strong.

Do you know what it means for a project party to have a counterfeit season?

I specifically looked at several counterfeit projects with pump actions

Project parties/whales are frantically unloading their assets

While unloading, they think:
Finally, there are fools coming to take over the air we printed
Hurry up and sell
Exchange air coins for BTC, ETH, SOL, BNB, don't hold onto some air anymore, the valuation and pricing power of the project are all false.

It's like that tea cake incident back then; if someone picks it up later, it deserves that pricing, if no one picks it up, it’s worth nothing!

The Focus of Focus

Why do you see others making huge profits on contracts? Why do you not only fail to earn from contracts but also lose a lot?

It might hurt to say, but your capital is too small. Those with large amounts of capital only use a small portion to trade, while you are using your emotionally significant funds to operate.

With more money, you can make expectations and calmly deal with fluctuations, but when you enter the market, it’s hard to remain calm. At that moment, you are thinking about the joy of making money, but if you face a floating loss, it creates a sense of disparity. Watching the fluctuations of numbers disrupts your mindset, leading to frequent opening of positions, closing losses, and then watching the market move in the expected direction after closing. You can’t help but jump back in, only to face floating losses again, entering a vicious cycle.

This is a difference in mindset and confidence!

The characteristics of such people are as follows:

1. Opening positions with leverage above 5X and trading frequently.

2. When Bitcoin has no direction, focusing on 15-minute and hourly charts.

3. Following a bunch of teachers analyzing short-term trades.

When Bitcoin has no market trend and is fluctuating, short-term trading is just marking lines up and down, with random and chaotic price movements!

Various short-term patterns can easily be manipulated by individual Bitcoin's main forces.

Think about it, in such a market condition, how can you make money? Otherwise, why would long-term trades not require monitoring, while short-term trades ask God this question?

However, the weekly chart is different; it absolutely cannot be controlled by just one main force. The weekly chart reflects the trading data of Bitcoin for that week.

This measure of buying and selling trends is definitely more relevant than minute and hourly charts.

You need to change your strategy now.

If you want to earn stable money, then take low-leverage trend trades, grasping the upward and downward trends of Bitcoin's weekly chart! How to judge I have mentioned before.

If you want to get rich quickly, then wait for a black swan; only extreme market conditions can give birth to such opportunities. Otherwise, in normal market conditions, if you trade with 100x leverage hoping to get rich, the possibility is zero.
$BTC #美国加征关税 #以色列伊朗冲突

This wave of poor market conditions has lasted for more than 6 months. To be honest, it has been really exhausting this year. In such circumstances, being tormented by the market every day makes emotions very oppressive. What about those who have been losing money for years? What about those who are trading while in debt? Their pressure is unimaginable.

The market is a casino, and most people are gamblers. People like me always want to break free from the label of a gambler through a series of rules, wishing to transform myself into a rule-based trader who pursues stability away from gambling tendencies.

But most people are not like this. Before entering the market, they aspire to get rich overnight, and after entering, they fantasize about getting rich overnight to recover their losses. Throughout the process, their minds are consumed by gambling, and they end up losing their lives to it.

Let me say something unconventional: high transaction fees, significant slippage, and obvious capital intervention are objectively many disadvantages; subjectively, the requirements for stable profit are very high. Those who used to withdraw funds have left me feeling depressed, and others only seem to be overwhelmed. If you want stable profits, you must go against human nature, abandon the gambling mentality, maintain emotional stability, set rules, and strictly adhere to them. Yet, despite these seemingly simple words, the vast majority of people cannot achieve this. In fact, I myself cannot guarantee 100% adherence to the system.

So, sometimes giving up can also be a good choice.

Perhaps contracts have made your current life miserable, but continuing may likely make it worse.

Maybe you think contracts have ruined your life, but if you stop now, there are still infinite opportunities ahead.

Set a limit for yourself: how much more you can lose before you must give up, or how long you can keep trading without recovering your losses before you must give up.

The money here is like rice cakes in a hot oil pot; it may be delicious, but every time you reach in, you risk losing some skin.

As an adult, you are not just yourself; you are a son to your parents, a husband to your wife, and a father to your children.

This market has not brought you the expected overnight wealth; instead, it has brought the harsh criticisms from your aging parents, the disappointment of your virtuous wife after countless forgiveness, and the resentful looks from your understanding children who seem to know everything.

Perhaps your life seems a bit dim, but their lives should not be dimmed alongside yours. $BTC #以色列伊朗冲突

This position should be defended; maintain the most pessimistic mindset for holding. If this position breaks down, it is highly likely to go to around 94-96, and the worst outcome would be down to 92!

This is what I hope for, as a decline comes with opportunities! $BTC

If you were given one million and had to lose it all within a week, or else you would be shot, what methods could you come up with to achieve that?

Some people say to go all in, but what if you end up making a profit? If it turns into two million, it'll be even harder to lose it all. Some people suggest going all in and trading frequently, closing positions immediately to just lose the transaction fees.

That's right, that's one way to do it. But what if you have unrealized gains? You must cut them immediately; you absolutely cannot wait. If you have unrealized losses, you can wait a bit, hoping to lose a bit more. I hope this reverse thinking can help you gain some insight.

The most important thing is that once you have gained that insight, you must let go of the regrets and obsessions about how much you lost before, and focus on doing well. Otherwise, being eager to turn things around will only lead to further losses. Now, how do we build a trading system? $BTC