通胀

#美国5月核心PCE物价指数

🚨【Does the Federal Reserve want to cut interest rates? Inflation scoffs: Do you deserve it?】
Core PCE for May: 2.7%, rising instead of falling! Directly contradicts the market expectation of 2.6%.
The Federal Reserve originally planned to "do something in the fall," but now they might have to pray that no surprises come up in the summer.

📉 Interest rate cuts? Don't even think about July, and September is also uncertain.
💥 The two major culprits, services and housing, continue to drive up prices.
📈 The bond market has cooled, the dollar has risen slightly, and growth stocks are suffering.

👀 Inflation is not retreating, interest rate cuts are not coming, whether the market gets serious or not depends entirely on whether the data for June and July are favorable.

—— Today's data is saying one thing: "It's still early."

#PCE #通胀

#BTC🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥

When I saw this news, I had a strong feeling; in the mainland, one dime is now very rare, let alone one cent;
This often indicates the inflation level of currency in the economic society!

In the mainland, one dime is rarely used now, and one cent has stopped being used 10 years ago;
One can imagine the degree of inflation.
We have released a lot of money for 20 years,
While the Americans have been using one cent for 200 years!
#通胀
The U.S. Mint has placed the last order for one cent coin blanks, after which production will cease.

The U.S. Treasury has confirmed it will stop minting one cent coins (Penny). The Mint has placed the last order for blank coins, and production will cease once they are exhausted.

The U.S. Treasury stated that there are currently about 114 billion one cent coins in circulation in the U.S., worth $1.14 billion, but the utilization rate of these coins is far below expectations. The one cent coin was one of the first coins minted after the U.S. Mint was established in 1792.

#通胀 challenged a small position of 10,000 on gate1000, and encountered a retracement at 6,500. I set a stop loss, but after the stop loss was set in batches, the position retreated to 2,500, and all the losses were on pyth. Half of the stop loss line, and the other half was just cut. Not strictly following the rules set by myself (three times, 1/3 stop loss line) will only cause greater losses. As long as there is a sudden surge, there is a risk of liquidation.
Binance's pyth position felt that the funding fee was too abnormal on the 19th, and I made a small profit of 466U. Let's wait and see the market situation. The next opportunity will have to wait until the end of June. Before that, I was short and learned and felt life. I opened a position on April 8th, and it is currently predicted that the challenge will not be completed until the end of July.
The following are my personal opinions
1. Bitcoin was originally designed as an inflation-resistant payment system, and its market value is mainly the product of fiat currency inflation. Every fiat currency-related policy will cause abnormal fluctuations in the crypto market, so bring a stop loss;
2. 99.9% of the copycats will return to zero, and do certain things - empty copycats, while the information on fiat currency or policy has a lag, and ordinary people cannot confirm it in the first time. After confirmation, the market has ended;
3. The information on the chain is equally accessible to everyone, depending on your on-chain analysis ability;
4. The way is simple, and the supply and demand relationship (this point also reflects 1) is the main factor affecting the price;
5. The difference between trading and gambling The main thing is whether there is a trading logic (personal logic is supply and demand. If the Fed QEs and the total amount of BTC is fixed, BTC will rise. If the altcoin is released and the buying is limited, the altcoin will fall);
6. Trading is a long-term thing. It is wrong to fantasize about getting rich overnight. Even if you have the opportunity to buy BOME, WIF, etc., you dare not go all in, or run away early (in 2019, 2 million hexes were sold for 8,000 RMB, and the highest value was 6 million. ILV invested in 3 US dollars was sold at 38 in the last wave, and ordi was sold at 4.6);

The Fed has no other way except QE to quench thirst, and inflation has to be solved, so the world is going to be in chaos.
I am waiting for a big guy who is good at analyzing the solana chain. If there is one, please seek some advice.

#pyth #美联储何时降息？ #链上

The U.S. one-year inflation rate data for March will be announced at 10 PM tonight. Based on current market dynamics and retrieved information, the initial expectation for the U.S. one-year inflation rate for March (expected at 4.2%) could have the following impacts on ETH's trend:

1. Inflation Expectations and Federal Reserve Policy Path
If the actual announced value is lower than expected (4.2%), it may alleviate market concerns about the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts, driving a rebound in risk assets. However, if the data is flat or higher than the previous value (4.3%), it will strengthen market worries about “stagflation” risks, prompting the dollar to strengthen and suppressing crypto assets like ETH. Currently, CME shows about a 65% probability of a rate cut in June, but high inflation expectations may limit the room for easing.

2. Market Sentiment and Capital Flow
Recently, ETH has been under pressure due to institutional sell-offs (such as BlackRock ETF experiencing a $11 million outflow in a single day) and technical breakdowns (falling below $2000). If the inflation data exceeds expectations, it may intensify market panic, accelerating ETH's decline; conversely, if the data cools or meets expectations, it may trigger a short-term technical rebound, but attention should be paid to whether ETF funds flow back in.

3. Safe-Haven Asset Correlation Effects
Gold has recently reached a historical high (3001 USD/oz) due to inflation expectations and geopolitical risks. If the inflation data exceeds expectations, it may divert some funds to gold, indirectly suppressing ETH's liquidity. Conversely, if inflation cools, a correction in gold may provide some support for ETH.

Comprehensive Suggestions:
- Short-term: If the announced value ≤ 4.2%, ETH may experience a technical correction, but it needs to break through the resistance level of $2100; if > 4.2%, it may test the support of $1850.
- Medium to Long-term: Attention should be paid to signals of a shift in Federal Reserve policy and the flow of institutional funds. If rate cut expectations are clear and ETFs continue to flow in, ETH may regain an upward trend.

(Note: The above analysis is based on historical data and market logic; actual trends may be affected by sudden policies or black swan events.)
$ETH #通胀
#走势分析

Bitcoin fell 15% in three weeks, will US data determine the market bottom?

In the past three weeks, Bitcoin has experienced a correction of about 15%, with prices falling from a range of around $70,000 to around $60,000.

In recent weeks, open interest has dropped by almost $3 billion. The financing rate for perpetual contracts has dropped to almost zero, which makes the power between buyers and sellers more balanced.

For short-term holders, the current price exceeds their realization price. At present, the average profit of short-term holders is slightly negative, which has always supported local adjustments in the past.

US GDP and unemployment data will be released on Thursday, and inflation data (PCE) will be released on Friday. However, judging from the current structure, there may be a local bottom.

#Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #美国PCE数据将公布 #通胀 #失业率 #通胀数
$ORN $WIF $BONK

During the financial crisis in 2007, a stimulus package of 4 trillion yuan was launched. The 4 trillion yuan was short-term debt, which had to be repaid within 5 years.
After that, trillions of yuan were released every year.
Now we are going to issue ultra-long-term government bonds, which can be considered as not having to be repaid.
Will it become the new normal in a year?

#通胀 is the biggest benefit of $BTC Bitcoin!

The collapse of the US stock market has led to a shrinkage of most global stock markets, rising tariffs are accelerating inflation, BTC has become the best store of value asset, speculators continue to exit, those who truly understand continue to hold and not sell, and we will eventually reveal that our choice is correct!
#BTC走势分析
#btc
#關稅
#通胀
#經濟學

$BTC

In the latest "60 Minutes" interview, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell actually threatened that he did not have to wait for inflation to return to 2% and was actively considering preparing for an early interest rate cut.

The U.S. economy is currently so strong, with the core inflation rate as high as 3.9% and the nominal inflation rate still at 3.1%. The economic environment does not yet have the conditions for a shift in monetary policy.

But with Powell’s impatient statement, doesn’t it give Biden the consideration to assist in next year’s election? Don’t forget who nominated him for three terms as Fed chairman.

It is conceivable that maintaining economic prosperity at all costs is Powell's invisible political task. Before the election at the end of the year, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once, and may even stop shrinking its balance sheet.

Go long $BTC $BNB !

#内容挖矿 #美联储 #鲍威尔 #通胀

Interview link:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/full-transcript-fed-chair-jerome-powell-60-minutes-interview-economy/

Experts say: US inflation can be broken down into three parts
1. The rent is lagging and will definitely fall
2. Commodities China continues to export deflation
3. Wages: Now it is falling due to immigration. Immigration policies will be tightened, but economic demand is also declining, which will offset part of it. There may be some inflation

#通胀 #美联储 #降息

Two weeks ago, Powell actively stated in an interview on "60 Minutes" that he was preparing to cut interest rates.

Data last week and yesterday showed that U.S. CPI and PPI in January exceeded expectations.

Hopefully the Fed will not make the same mistakes of the 1970s, which is the biggest risk to the market.

$BTC $WLD $LPT

#宏观 #美联储 #通胀 #CPI #降息

This week, the market may encounter three unfavorable situations:
First, Iran may really take action and be unfriendly to Israel. You see, their missile forces started to conduct exercises in the west yesterday, and they will continue until Tuesday. Israel is also getting nervous, thinking that Iran may really do it this week

Second, the old BTC in Mentougou has started to move again. They tried to transfer money before, and now everyone guesses that they may have to move to another place in the next one or two months. This move will definitely shake the market.

The third is the issue of purse that everyone is concerned about, and the inflation data is about to come out. Everyone is afraid that the number will be higher than expected, and the wallet will be even more deflated. If these three bad things really happen, then the current price of 48,800 may not be the lowest point of this round of decline.
But then again, if Iran is just scaring people, and the BTC in Mentougou has not really moved, and the inflation data is still good, then our wallets may be able to swell again, and the price can still soar to 60,000.
This week, we have to keep an eye on two major events. At 8:30 pm on Tuesday, the US PPI for July will be announced. If it is higher than expected, the market will fall; if it is lower, then we can be happy. And at 8:30 pm on Wednesday, the CPI will also be released. Just like the PPI, it is not good if it is high, but it is good if it is low. However, before this data comes out, the market usually has to tremble first, and get used to it.
Generally speaking, the larger the CPI, the greater the inflation rate, which is specifically manifested as follows:
When the increase in CPI>3%, we call it inflation
When the increase in CPI>5%, we call it severe inflation
#通胀
#CPI数据

This data is not very friendly, the market directly started to eat noodles, but fortunately we held back and did not chase
#通胀

📊 The Federal Reserve has not yet declared victory in the fight against inflation, but it has shifted some focus to its dual mandate's "maximum employment" goal.

Citi economist Veronica Clark points out that the non-farm payroll data for October will be crucial in validating the strong performance of the September employment figures. However, this data may not be sufficient to shift the market's concern back to the risks of an economic recession.

💼 It is worth noting that the October data will reflect the impact of certain special factors, including the Boeing strike and hurricanes, which may reduce employment by 70,000 to 80,000 jobs.

Citi's expectations for this non-farm data are more moderate than the market's general expectations, forecasting an increase of 90,000 jobs and a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.23%.

📉 Additionally, Citi emphasizes that any downward revision of the September employment data may be more significant than in the past, as it will provide a clearer perspective for the Federal Reserve's policy assessment.

These factors collectively influence the market's expectations for the economy's direction and bring uncertainty to future policy directions.

#美联储 #非农数据 #就业 #通胀 #经济

📈Market forecasts show that the U.S. Department of Commerce will announce a third-quarter GDP annualized growth rate of 3% on Wednesday, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of expansion for the U.S. economy!💪

Meanwhile, the core PCE price index is expected to significantly slow down to 2.1%, close to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.📉 This data is crucial for Federal Reserve policy, as they use PCE as the primary inflation indicator.

Although Citigroup predicts that GDP growth may be lower than expected at only 2.6%, meeting the inflation target is likely to reinforce the Federal Reserve's decision to only cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week.💼

Keep a close eye on the next few days!📊

#经济 #美联储 #通胀 #GDP

Fed Chairman warns of Trump's tariff policy, hints at policy patience

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke on April 4, expressing concern about the inflation risks that the Trump administration's newly announced tariff policy may bring, but at the same time stressed that the Fed will not hastily adjust interest rate policy.

At a recent business news event, Powell pointed out that the 10% benchmark tariff and possible retaliatory measures bring a "highly uncertain outlook", but the central bank needs more time to assess the specific impact.  

Powell said it is too early to judge the appropriate path of monetary policy, and reiterated that the Fed's core task is to ensure that short-term price fluctuations do not evolve into long-term inflation problems. Although the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 1 percentage point before the end of the year (according to CME data), Powell made it clear that this expectation may be dashed if inflation risks rise.  

It is worth noting that Powell repeatedly emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve in his speech and declined Trump's recent public pressure for interest rate cuts. He acknowledged that despite the good fundamentals of the US economy, low unemployment and stable demand, he also pointed out that the core inflation index (core CPI) is still as high as 3.1% (March data), far above the target level of 2%.

Against the backdrop of escalating global trade tensions, Bitcoin has shown amazing resilience, continuing to trade above $83,000, unaffected by the volatility of traditional risk assets. Analysts believe that this "immune" performance of cryptocurrencies may be due to investors viewing it as a hedge against inflation and political uncertainty.

As many countries announced retaliatory tariffs, Powell warned that the speed and extent of new pricing pressures penetrating the supply chain remain unpredictable.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will announce its next interest rate decision in early May, and Powell's statement also seems to be sending a signal that the Fed will soon make a policy shift. However, before the economic fog caused by tariffs dissipates, the market may remain stable.

What changes do you think the Fed's next tariff policy will bring to the cryptocurrency market? What impact will Powell's remarks have on the market? Leave a message in the comment area to discuss!

#美联储 #鲍威尔 #关税政策 #通胀

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks in Chicago - High uncertainty requires waiting for clearer conditions
1. Interest Rate Outlook: High uncertainty; currently in a good position, will wait for more clear signals before considering adjusting policy stance.
2. Economic Outlook: The U.S. economy remains 'robust,' with strong imports in the first quarter causing a drag, and GDP may see a slowdown compared to last year's growth rate.
3. Inflation Outlook: The impact of tariffs may be more persistent, expected to push inflation higher; March PCE year-on-year is projected at 2.3%, core PCE at 2.6%.
4. Labor Market: Overall remains balanced; reduced funding for research is expected to have a significant impact on employment; the unemployment rate is expected to rise.
5. Tariff Impact: The extent of tariff increases so far has far exceeded expectations; policies are still being adjusted, and the impact remains highly uncertain.
6. Cryptocurrency: Gradually becoming mainstream, a legal framework for stablecoins needs to be established; bank regulation is expected to see 'partial easing.'
7. Independence: The independence of the Federal Reserve is legally granted; the Federal Reserve will not be influenced by political pressure.
8. Others: Don't expect the Federal Reserve to step in to rescue the market; if a dollar shortage occurs, the Federal Reserve is prepared to provide liquidity to global central banks.
9. Market Reaction: The dollar index fell and then rebounded, before dropping again; U.S. stocks continued to decline, with the Nasdaq down nearly 4%, and gold slightly climbed.

In summary: Don't expect the Federal Reserve to rescue the market; liquidity won't improve in the short term, and loosened bank regulation will benefit the cryptocurrency sector in the long run.
#BTC #美联储 #鲍威尔 #通胀

Federal Reserve Beige Book: Economic Activity Moderately Declines, Labor Market Remains Stable

The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book shows that U.S. economic activity is moderating, but the labor market remains stable.

Bloomberg reporter Catarina Saraiva points out that this report has a similar tone to this year's, with businesses and consumer sentiment becoming increasingly cautious, mainly due to ongoing trade tensions and tariffs. Everyone is watching how this trade war will develop.

The report mentions tariffs 122 times, and "moderate economic decline" is a common phenomenon across regions. However, Saraiva also emphasizes that American consumers are displaying remarkable resilience, with consumption remaining strong, largely thanks to a stable job market. Although retail sales have seen slight growth, large purchases have cooled off.

Regarding inflation, the report once again sounds the alarm. There is a risk of inflation expectations becoming unanchored, which could weaken the Federal Reserve's ability to control prices. Fortunately, despite recent fluctuations in sentiment, most market inflation indicators remain relatively stable.

Additionally, Saraiva talked about Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman. She is known for supporting loose regulations and opposing increased capital requirements, often aligning with industry views on regulation, but she also advocates for strict oversight and calls for an independent review of the Silicon Valley Bank incident.

Saraiva also mentioned that Bowman's prudent and accommodative stance as a Federal Reserve governor has proven her to be a responsible policymaker. At the same time, she hinted that Bowman may have become a potential candidate to succeed Powell.

In summary, economic slowdown, tariff clouds, inflation concerns... every economic-related data released by the Federal Reserve constantly stirs the market nerves!

What is your judgment on the future direction of the economy? Steady progress or undercurrents? Share your thoughts in the comments section!