通胀

🚨 Bitcoin is about to experience significant volatility! The Federal Reserve meeting is the key! 📉

This week, Bitcoin investors fasten your seatbelts and prepare for potential turbulence! The market has entered a 'strategic pause' phase, and the next trend depends entirely on the liquidity changes after the Federal Reserve meeting.

💥 Inflation slows down, institutions increase positions: U.S. inflation has dropped to 1.45%, creating conditions for capital inflow. Some large institutions are even betting on Bitcoin with 40x leverage, preparing for an increase in risk appetite!

📉 Liquidity crisis approaching: As large-scale liquidity clusters gather, Bitcoin faces liquidation risks, which could lead to a crash or strong volatility.

💔 Market anxiety intensifies: If the Federal Reserve continues with hawkish interest rate hikes, market sentiment may turn negative again, leading to more downward volatility.

The future of Bitcoin is destined to be revealed after the Federal Reserve's decision! Are you ready for extreme fluctuations? 🔮

#比特币走势分析 #BTC #美联储何时降息？ #市场波动 #通胀

#通胀 challenged a small position of 10,000 on gate1000, and encountered a retracement at 6,500. I set a stop loss, but after the stop loss was set in batches, the position retreated to 2,500, and all the losses were on pyth. Half of the stop loss line, and the other half was just cut. Not strictly following the rules set by myself (three times, 1/3 stop loss line) will only cause greater losses. As long as there is a sudden surge, there is a risk of liquidation.
Binance's pyth position felt that the funding fee was too abnormal on the 19th, and I made a small profit of 466U. Let's wait and see the market situation. The next opportunity will have to wait until the end of June. Before that, I was short and learned and felt life. I opened a position on April 8th, and it is currently predicted that the challenge will not be completed until the end of July.
The following are my personal opinions
1. Bitcoin was originally designed as an inflation-resistant payment system, and its market value is mainly the product of fiat currency inflation. Every fiat currency-related policy will cause abnormal fluctuations in the crypto market, so bring a stop loss;
2. 99.9% of the copycats will return to zero, and do certain things - empty copycats, while the information on fiat currency or policy has a lag, and ordinary people cannot confirm it in the first time. After confirmation, the market has ended;
3. The information on the chain is equally accessible to everyone, depending on your on-chain analysis ability;
4. The way is simple, and the supply and demand relationship (this point also reflects 1) is the main factor affecting the price;
5. The difference between trading and gambling The main thing is whether there is a trading logic (personal logic is supply and demand. If the Fed QEs and the total amount of BTC is fixed, BTC will rise. If the altcoin is released and the buying is limited, the altcoin will fall);
6. Trading is a long-term thing. It is wrong to fantasize about getting rich overnight. Even if you have the opportunity to buy BOME, WIF, etc., you dare not go all in, or run away early (in 2019, 2 million hexes were sold for 8,000 RMB, and the highest value was 6 million. ILV invested in 3 US dollars was sold at 38 in the last wave, and ordi was sold at 4.6);

The Fed has no other way except QE to quench thirst, and inflation has to be solved, so the world is going to be in chaos.
I am waiting for a big guy who is good at analyzing the solana chain. If there is one, please seek some advice.

#pyth #美联储何时降息？ #链上

The U.S. one-year inflation rate data for March will be announced at 10 PM tonight. Based on current market dynamics and retrieved information, the initial expectation for the U.S. one-year inflation rate for March (expected at 4.2%) could have the following impacts on ETH's trend:

1. Inflation Expectations and Federal Reserve Policy Path
If the actual announced value is lower than expected (4.2%), it may alleviate market concerns about the Federal Reserve delaying interest rate cuts, driving a rebound in risk assets. However, if the data is flat or higher than the previous value (4.3%), it will strengthen market worries about “stagflation” risks, prompting the dollar to strengthen and suppressing crypto assets like ETH. Currently, CME shows about a 65% probability of a rate cut in June, but high inflation expectations may limit the room for easing.

2. Market Sentiment and Capital Flow
Recently, ETH has been under pressure due to institutional sell-offs (such as BlackRock ETF experiencing a $11 million outflow in a single day) and technical breakdowns (falling below $2000). If the inflation data exceeds expectations, it may intensify market panic, accelerating ETH's decline; conversely, if the data cools or meets expectations, it may trigger a short-term technical rebound, but attention should be paid to whether ETF funds flow back in.

3. Safe-Haven Asset Correlation Effects
Gold has recently reached a historical high (3001 USD/oz) due to inflation expectations and geopolitical risks. If the inflation data exceeds expectations, it may divert some funds to gold, indirectly suppressing ETH's liquidity. Conversely, if inflation cools, a correction in gold may provide some support for ETH.

Comprehensive Suggestions:
- Short-term: If the announced value ≤ 4.2%, ETH may experience a technical correction, but it needs to break through the resistance level of $2100; if > 4.2%, it may test the support of $1850.
- Medium to Long-term: Attention should be paid to signals of a shift in Federal Reserve policy and the flow of institutional funds. If rate cut expectations are clear and ETFs continue to flow in, ETH may regain an upward trend.

(Note: The above analysis is based on historical data and market logic; actual trends may be affected by sudden policies or black swan events.)
$ETH #通胀
#走势分析

Bitcoin fell 15% in three weeks, will US data determine the market bottom?

In the past three weeks, Bitcoin has experienced a correction of about 15%, with prices falling from a range of around $70,000 to around $60,000.

In recent weeks, open interest has dropped by almost $3 billion. The financing rate for perpetual contracts has dropped to almost zero, which makes the power between buyers and sellers more balanced.

For short-term holders, the current price exceeds their realization price. At present, the average profit of short-term holders is slightly negative, which has always supported local adjustments in the past.

US GDP and unemployment data will be released on Thursday, and inflation data (PCE) will be released on Friday. However, judging from the current structure, there may be a local bottom.

#Mt.Gox将启动偿还计划 #美国PCE数据将公布 #通胀 #失业率 #通胀数
$ORN $WIF $BONK

During the financial crisis in 2007, a stimulus package of 4 trillion yuan was launched. The 4 trillion yuan was short-term debt, which had to be repaid within 5 years.
After that, trillions of yuan were released every year.
Now we are going to issue ultra-long-term government bonds, which can be considered as not having to be repaid.
Will it become the new normal in a year?

#通胀 is the biggest benefit of $BTC Bitcoin!

$BTC

In the latest "60 Minutes" interview, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell actually threatened that he did not have to wait for inflation to return to 2% and was actively considering preparing for an early interest rate cut.

The U.S. economy is currently so strong, with the core inflation rate as high as 3.9% and the nominal inflation rate still at 3.1%. The economic environment does not yet have the conditions for a shift in monetary policy.

But with Powell’s impatient statement, doesn’t it give Biden the consideration to assist in next year’s election? Don’t forget who nominated him for three terms as Fed chairman.

It is conceivable that maintaining economic prosperity at all costs is Powell's invisible political task. Before the election at the end of the year, the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at least once, and may even stop shrinking its balance sheet.

Go long $BTC $BNB !

#内容挖矿 #美联储 #鲍威尔 #通胀

Interview link:
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/full-transcript-fed-chair-jerome-powell-60-minutes-interview-economy/

The collapse of the US stock market has led to a shrinkage of most global stock markets, rising tariffs are accelerating inflation, BTC has become the best store of value asset, speculators continue to exit, those who truly understand continue to hold and not sell, and we will eventually reveal that our choice is correct!
#BTC走势分析
#btc
#關稅
#通胀
#經濟學

This week, the market may encounter three unfavorable situations:
First, Iran may really take action and be unfriendly to Israel. You see, their missile forces started to conduct exercises in the west yesterday, and they will continue until Tuesday. Israel is also getting nervous, thinking that Iran may really do it this week

Second, the old BTC in Mentougou has started to move again. They tried to transfer money before, and now everyone guesses that they may have to move to another place in the next one or two months. This move will definitely shake the market.

The third is the issue of purse that everyone is concerned about, and the inflation data is about to come out. Everyone is afraid that the number will be higher than expected, and the wallet will be even more deflated. If these three bad things really happen, then the current price of 48,800 may not be the lowest point of this round of decline.
But then again, if Iran is just scaring people, and the BTC in Mentougou has not really moved, and the inflation data is still good, then our wallets may be able to swell again, and the price can still soar to 60,000.
This week, we have to keep an eye on two major events. At 8:30 pm on Tuesday, the US PPI for July will be announced. If it is higher than expected, the market will fall; if it is lower, then we can be happy. And at 8:30 pm on Wednesday, the CPI will also be released. Just like the PPI, it is not good if it is high, but it is good if it is low. However, before this data comes out, the market usually has to tremble first, and get used to it.
Generally speaking, the larger the CPI, the greater the inflation rate, which is specifically manifested as follows:
When the increase in CPI>3%, we call it inflation
When the increase in CPI>5%, we call it severe inflation
#通胀
#CPI数据

Experts say: US inflation can be broken down into three parts
1. The rent is lagging and will definitely fall
2. Commodities China continues to export deflation
3. Wages: Now it is falling due to immigration. Immigration policies will be tightened, but economic demand is also declining, which will offset part of it. There may be some inflation

#通胀 #美联储 #降息

Two weeks ago, Powell actively stated in an interview on "60 Minutes" that he was preparing to cut interest rates.

Data last week and yesterday showed that U.S. CPI and PPI in January exceeded expectations.

Hopefully the Fed will not make the same mistakes of the 1970s, which is the biggest risk to the market.

$BTC $WLD $LPT

#宏观 #美联储 #通胀 #CPI #降息

This data is not very friendly, the market directly started to eat noodles, but fortunately we held back and did not chase
#通胀

📈Market forecasts show that the U.S. Department of Commerce will announce a third-quarter GDP annualized growth rate of 3% on Wednesday, marking the 10th consecutive quarter of expansion for the U.S. economy!💪

Meanwhile, the core PCE price index is expected to significantly slow down to 2.1%, close to the Federal Reserve's 2% inflation target.📉 This data is crucial for Federal Reserve policy, as they use PCE as the primary inflation indicator.

Although Citigroup predicts that GDP growth may be lower than expected at only 2.6%, meeting the inflation target is likely to reinforce the Federal Reserve's decision to only cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week.💼

Keep a close eye on the next few days!📊

#经济 #美联储 #通胀 #GDP

📊 The Federal Reserve has not yet declared victory in the fight against inflation, but it has shifted some focus to its dual mandate's "maximum employment" goal.

Citi economist Veronica Clark points out that the non-farm payroll data for October will be crucial in validating the strong performance of the September employment figures. However, this data may not be sufficient to shift the market's concern back to the risks of an economic recession.

💼 It is worth noting that the October data will reflect the impact of certain special factors, including the Boeing strike and hurricanes, which may reduce employment by 70,000 to 80,000 jobs.

Citi's expectations for this non-farm data are more moderate than the market's general expectations, forecasting an increase of 90,000 jobs and a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.23%.

📉 Additionally, Citi emphasizes that any downward revision of the September employment data may be more significant than in the past, as it will provide a clearer perspective for the Federal Reserve's policy assessment.

These factors collectively influence the market's expectations for the economy's direction and bring uncertainty to future policy directions.

#美联储 #非农数据 #就业 #通胀 #经济

Fed Chairman warns of Trump's tariff policy, hints at policy patience

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell spoke on April 4, expressing concern about the inflation risks that the Trump administration's newly announced tariff policy may bring, but at the same time stressed that the Fed will not hastily adjust interest rate policy.

At a recent business news event, Powell pointed out that the 10% benchmark tariff and possible retaliatory measures bring a "highly uncertain outlook", but the central bank needs more time to assess the specific impact.  

Powell said it is too early to judge the appropriate path of monetary policy, and reiterated that the Fed's core task is to ensure that short-term price fluctuations do not evolve into long-term inflation problems. Although the market generally expects the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 1 percentage point before the end of the year (according to CME data), Powell made it clear that this expectation may be dashed if inflation risks rise.  

It is worth noting that Powell repeatedly emphasized the independence of the Federal Reserve in his speech and declined Trump's recent public pressure for interest rate cuts. He acknowledged that despite the good fundamentals of the US economy, low unemployment and stable demand, he also pointed out that the core inflation index (core CPI) is still as high as 3.1% (March data), far above the target level of 2%.

Against the backdrop of escalating global trade tensions, Bitcoin has shown amazing resilience, continuing to trade above $83,000, unaffected by the volatility of traditional risk assets. Analysts believe that this "immune" performance of cryptocurrencies may be due to investors viewing it as a hedge against inflation and political uncertainty.

As many countries announced retaliatory tariffs, Powell warned that the speed and extent of new pricing pressures penetrating the supply chain remain unpredictable.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will announce its next interest rate decision in early May, and Powell's statement also seems to be sending a signal that the Fed will soon make a policy shift. However, before the economic fog caused by tariffs dissipates, the market may remain stable.

What changes do you think the Fed's next tariff policy will bring to the cryptocurrency market? What impact will Powell's remarks have on the market? Leave a message in the comment area to discuss!

#美联储 #鲍威尔 #关税政策 #通胀

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks in Chicago - High uncertainty requires waiting for clearer conditions
1. Interest Rate Outlook: High uncertainty; currently in a good position, will wait for more clear signals before considering adjusting policy stance.
2. Economic Outlook: The U.S. economy remains 'robust,' with strong imports in the first quarter causing a drag, and GDP may see a slowdown compared to last year's growth rate.
3. Inflation Outlook: The impact of tariffs may be more persistent, expected to push inflation higher; March PCE year-on-year is projected at 2.3%, core PCE at 2.6%.
4. Labor Market: Overall remains balanced; reduced funding for research is expected to have a significant impact on employment; the unemployment rate is expected to rise.
5. Tariff Impact: The extent of tariff increases so far has far exceeded expectations; policies are still being adjusted, and the impact remains highly uncertain.
6. Cryptocurrency: Gradually becoming mainstream, a legal framework for stablecoins needs to be established; bank regulation is expected to see 'partial easing.'
7. Independence: The independence of the Federal Reserve is legally granted; the Federal Reserve will not be influenced by political pressure.
8. Others: Don't expect the Federal Reserve to step in to rescue the market; if a dollar shortage occurs, the Federal Reserve is prepared to provide liquidity to global central banks.
9. Market Reaction: The dollar index fell and then rebounded, before dropping again; U.S. stocks continued to decline, with the Nasdaq down nearly 4%, and gold slightly climbed.

In summary: Don't expect the Federal Reserve to rescue the market; liquidity won't improve in the short term, and loosened bank regulation will benefit the cryptocurrency sector in the long run.
#BTC #美联储 #鲍威尔 #通胀

In the upcoming Ethereum ETF approval process, we will focus on the latest developments of Ethereum ETF.

SEC Chairman Gary Ganser recently made a positive comment on the listing process of Ethereum spot ETF. He believes that the process will be very smooth and will not encounter any problems. However, the only obstacle at present is that the brokerage has not yet submitted the final version, which has caused the exact listing date of Ethereum ETF to remain undecided.

Although it has been predicted that the Ethereum ETF may be listed before July 4 (that is, the US Independence Day), as of June 27, the market has not received any official news. This makes the listing time of Ethereum ETF an unknown number, which has triggered widespread speculation and expectations in the market.

Some people believe that once the Ethereum ETF is listed, it may have a positive impact on the trend of Ethereum and even the entire altcoin market. Given that the Bitcoin spot ETF was listed only half a year ago, and the unexpected approval and upcoming listing of the Ethereum ETF, the market is full of expectations and speculation. As for the Ethereum spot ETF after its listing, what will its market demand be like? It is something that is worth everyone's attention. $ETH

Another thing to note is that there is also a problem with the supply of Ethereum. Over the past 73 days, the inflow of Ethereum has been greater than the outflow, which is in stark contrast to the situation in the past few years when the newly generated Ethereum tokens were less than the burned tokens. This change means that the number of Ethereum circulating in the market is gradually increasing, that is, Ethereum has experienced inflation.

The main reason for this phenomenon is that the transaction volume of Ethereum has dropped significantly in recent times, thereby reducing the amount of Ethereum burned. As a result, Ethereum has actually become an inflationary asset under the condition of low transaction demand and transaction volume.

At the same time, although this situation has lasted for 73 days, there has been relatively little discussion about it in the market, which is in contrast to the previous hype when Ethereum was inflated. In theory, this should be big news. It does feel a bit wrong that this situation has lasted for so long without causing enough discussion. #以太坊 #通胀 #SEC #ETHETF
If you know the reason, please leave your opinion in the comment section!

Why is the price of Bitcoin affected by US inflation?

Yesterday evening, the US one-year inflation rate for May was announced as 3.5%, which was expected to be 3.2% and the previous value was 3.2%. As soon as the inflation data was announced, the price of Bitcoin immediately adjusted from 63,000 to 60,700. Now, for US stocks and Bitcoin, rising inflation is bad news and falling inflation is good news.

Why is Bitcoin affected by the US inflation rate and various policies? I will explain it in plain language to avoid some newbies who have just entered the currency circle from not understanding. Now the volume of Bitcoin has made a qualitative leap from the past, and its market value has exceeded one trillion US dollars. As the market value continues to increase, it will be affected by the economic cycle more and more.

1. Let's first understand why the entire US stock market rises and why it falls from a long-term perspective?

The most intuitive reason why the US stock market rises is the inflow and outflow of money in the market. If money flows in, it will rise and if it flows out, it will fall.

2. What mainly controls the money in the global market?
The US dollar accounts for the largest proportion of global circulating money transactions, and the US dollar is mainly controlled by the Fed's interest rate hikes and cuts.

3. Why does the Fed raise and lower interest rates?
The purpose of the US interest rate hike and rate cut is to control the healthy operation of the economic cycle. When the economy is prosperous and inflation is too high, interest rates need to be raised slowly. When the economy shrinks or deflation occurs, interest rates need to be lowered slowly to promote the economy. Therefore, the global economy will be affected by the Fed's interest rate hike and rate cut.

Fed rate cut: bank loan interest rates are lowered, treasury bond interest rates are lowered, corporate loans increase, the number of employed people increases, and the amount of money circulating in the market increases... The final result is that the global economy is prosperous and there is more money in the market, and more money flows into the stock market, so the stock market will naturally rise and usher in a bull market.
Fed rate hike: bank loan interest rates increase, treasury bond interest rates increase, corporate loans decrease, the number of unemployed people increases, and the amount of money circulating in the market decreases (when bank and treasury bond interest rates increase, everyone will take money to deposit in banks or buy treasury bonds)... The final result is that there is less money in the global market, and when money flows out of the market, prices will naturally fall or go sideways (there is a high probability that there will be no bull market).

4. At which stage of interest rate hikes and rate cuts are we in now, and what is the relationship between interest rate hikes and rate cuts and inflation?
This economic cycle will start from July 27, 2023 when the Fed's interest rate is raised to a maximum of 5.Since 2015, the high interest rate of 5.5 has been maintained. The cycle of this interest rate hike is affected by the epidemic in 2021. The United States has printed too much money and inflation is serious, so it must be suppressed by raising interest rates. If inflation is well controlled, the Federal Reserve will start to cut interest rates soon, but now inflation is increasing instead of decreasing, so the interest rate cut is further postponed.

Yesterday's inflation data exceeded expectations and caused Bitcoin to fall because: the inflation rate increased -> the Fed's interest rate cut expectations were postponed -> the bull market cycle was delayed -> the price of Bitcoin fell. In addition, Bitcoin has risen for seven consecutive months before, and now it is the second month of the correction. It is very healthy to rise for seven months and then pull back for two or three months. No matter how Bitcoin fluctuates, hold your chips, and we will meet at the peak of the bull market. All opinions are personal opinions only and do not constitute any investment advice.

Hold BTC, ETH, BNB, and let time accompany us to slowly become rich.
#BTC #通胀 #美联储降息周期