末路狂奔

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks in Chicago - High uncertainty requires waiting for clearer conditions
1. Interest Rate Outlook: High uncertainty; currently in a good position, will wait for more clear signals before considering adjusting policy stance.
2. Economic Outlook: The U.S. economy remains 'robust,' with strong imports in the first quarter causing a drag, and GDP may see a slowdown compared to last year's growth rate.
3. Inflation Outlook: The impact of tariffs may be more persistent, expected to push inflation higher; March PCE year-on-year is projected at 2.3%, core PCE at 2.6%.
4. Labor Market: Overall remains balanced; reduced funding for research is expected to have a significant impact on employment; the unemployment rate is expected to rise.
5. Tariff Impact: The extent of tariff increases so far has far exceeded expectations; policies are still being adjusted, and the impact remains highly uncertain.
6. Cryptocurrency: Gradually becoming mainstream, a legal framework for stablecoins needs to be established; bank regulation is expected to see 'partial easing.'
7. Independence: The independence of the Federal Reserve is legally granted; the Federal Reserve will not be influenced by political pressure.
8. Others: Don't expect the Federal Reserve to step in to rescue the market; if a dollar shortage occurs, the Federal Reserve is prepared to provide liquidity to global central banks.
9. Market Reaction: The dollar index fell and then rebounded, before dropping again; U.S. stocks continued to decline, with the Nasdaq down nearly 4%, and gold slightly climbed.

In summary: Don't expect the Federal Reserve to rescue the market; liquidity won't improve in the short term, and loosened bank regulation will benefit the cryptocurrency sector in the long run.
#BTC #美联储 #鲍威尔 #通胀

US Treasury Yields Soar as Confidence in Treasury Market Wanes

On April 11, it was reported that on Friday, US Treasury yields soared to their highest level since February of this year.
Traders complained that as the $29 trillion US Treasury market experienced intensified turmoil, liquidity was deteriorating. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose by 0.19% to 4.58%. Traditionally viewed as the ultimate safe haven in the global financial system, US Treasuries are sinking deeper into malaise. Earlier this week, US Treasury yields were below 3.9%, but Trump's erratic tariff policies have shaken investors' confidence in US policymaking and the economy, prompting a mass exodus from US assets.
Peter Tchir, head of US macro strategy at Academy Securities, stated, "If you are a foreign holder, there is indeed pressure globally to sell US Treasuries and corporate bonds." "What the world is really worried about is that they don't know what Trump is going to do."
According to the Bloomberg US Treasury Index returns, Friday's sell-off led to the worst week for US Treasuries since 2019, coinciding with a decline in the dollar.
"We are concerned because the trends you see indicate that this is not a normal sell-off," an executive from the commodities services division of a European bank said. "They indicate that people have completely lost confidence in the strongest bond market in the world." (Financial Times)