末路狂奔
看宏观趋势做波动交易。
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This kind of speech is bound to fall.
Is $BTC surging because of this news?
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This time, Qin is awesome!
分析师舒琴
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Hahaha, the knockoff season has really arrived! I just shouted about the knockoff season this afternoon, and it started in the evening? 🤣
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Federal Reserve Chairman Powell speaks in Chicago - High uncertainty requires waiting for clearer conditions
1. Interest Rate Outlook: High uncertainty; currently in a good position, will wait for more clear signals before considering adjusting policy stance.
2. Economic Outlook: The U.S. economy remains 'robust,' with strong imports in the first quarter causing a drag, and GDP may see a slowdown compared to last year's growth rate.
3. Inflation Outlook: The impact of tariffs may be more persistent, expected to push inflation higher; March PCE year-on-year is projected at 2.3%, core PCE at 2.6%.
4. Labor Market: Overall remains balanced; reduced funding for research is expected to have a significant impact on employment; the unemployment rate is expected to rise.
5. Tariff Impact: The extent of tariff increases so far has far exceeded expectations; policies are still being adjusted, and the impact remains highly uncertain.
6. Cryptocurrency: Gradually becoming mainstream, a legal framework for stablecoins needs to be established; bank regulation is expected to see 'partial easing.'
7. Independence: The independence of the Federal Reserve is legally granted; the Federal Reserve will not be influenced by political pressure.
8. Others: Don't expect the Federal Reserve to step in to rescue the market; if a dollar shortage occurs, the Federal Reserve is prepared to provide liquidity to global central banks.
9. Market Reaction: The dollar index fell and then rebounded, before dropping again; U.S. stocks continued to decline, with the Nasdaq down nearly 4%, and gold slightly climbed.
In summary: Don't expect the Federal Reserve to rescue the market; liquidity won't improve in the short term, and loosened bank regulation will benefit the cryptocurrency sector in the long run.
#BTC #美联储 #鲍威尔 #通胀
1. Interest Rate Outlook: High uncertainty; currently in a good position, will wait for more clear signals before considering adjusting policy stance.
2. Economic Outlook: The U.S. economy remains 'robust,' with strong imports in the first quarter causing a drag, and GDP may see a slowdown compared to last year's growth rate.
3. Inflation Outlook: The impact of tariffs may be more persistent, expected to push inflation higher; March PCE year-on-year is projected at 2.3%, core PCE at 2.6%.
4. Labor Market: Overall remains balanced; reduced funding for research is expected to have a significant impact on employment; the unemployment rate is expected to rise.
5. Tariff Impact: The extent of tariff increases so far has far exceeded expectations; policies are still being adjusted, and the impact remains highly uncertain.
6. Cryptocurrency: Gradually becoming mainstream, a legal framework for stablecoins needs to be established; bank regulation is expected to see 'partial easing.'
7. Independence: The independence of the Federal Reserve is legally granted; the Federal Reserve will not be influenced by political pressure.
8. Others: Don't expect the Federal Reserve to step in to rescue the market; if a dollar shortage occurs, the Federal Reserve is prepared to provide liquidity to global central banks.
9. Market Reaction: The dollar index fell and then rebounded, before dropping again; U.S. stocks continued to decline, with the Nasdaq down nearly 4%, and gold slightly climbed.
In summary: Don't expect the Federal Reserve to rescue the market; liquidity won't improve in the short term, and loosened bank regulation will benefit the cryptocurrency sector in the long run.
#BTC #美联储 #鲍威尔 #通胀
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For such a big deal, it is advisable to be cautious.
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US Treasury Yields Soar as Confidence in Treasury Market Wanes
On April 11, it was reported that on Friday, US Treasury yields soared to their highest level since February of this year.
Traders complained that as the $29 trillion US Treasury market experienced intensified turmoil, liquidity was deteriorating. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose by 0.19% to 4.58%. Traditionally viewed as the ultimate safe haven in the global financial system, US Treasuries are sinking deeper into malaise. Earlier this week, US Treasury yields were below 3.9%, but Trump's erratic tariff policies have shaken investors' confidence in US policymaking and the economy, prompting a mass exodus from US assets.
Peter Tchir, head of US macro strategy at Academy Securities, stated, "If you are a foreign holder, there is indeed pressure globally to sell US Treasuries and corporate bonds." "What the world is really worried about is that they don't know what Trump is going to do."
According to the Bloomberg US Treasury Index returns, Friday's sell-off led to the worst week for US Treasuries since 2019, coinciding with a decline in the dollar.
"We are concerned because the trends you see indicate that this is not a normal sell-off," an executive from the commodities services division of a European bank said. "They indicate that people have completely lost confidence in the strongest bond market in the world." (Financial Times)
On April 11, it was reported that on Friday, US Treasury yields soared to their highest level since February of this year.
Traders complained that as the $29 trillion US Treasury market experienced intensified turmoil, liquidity was deteriorating. The yield on the US 10-year Treasury rose by 0.19% to 4.58%. Traditionally viewed as the ultimate safe haven in the global financial system, US Treasuries are sinking deeper into malaise. Earlier this week, US Treasury yields were below 3.9%, but Trump's erratic tariff policies have shaken investors' confidence in US policymaking and the economy, prompting a mass exodus from US assets.
Peter Tchir, head of US macro strategy at Academy Securities, stated, "If you are a foreign holder, there is indeed pressure globally to sell US Treasuries and corporate bonds." "What the world is really worried about is that they don't know what Trump is going to do."
According to the Bloomberg US Treasury Index returns, Friday's sell-off led to the worst week for US Treasuries since 2019, coinciding with a decline in the dollar.
"We are concerned because the trends you see indicate that this is not a normal sell-off," an executive from the commodities services division of a European bank said. "They indicate that people have completely lost confidence in the strongest bond market in the world." (Financial Times)
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V's reply is generated by AI, right? 😂
The advantages of Ethereum are well reflected$ETH
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Piano, the market is now starting to price in a recessionary rate cut in June, and everyone says the US stock market is going to crash. I feel like the cryptocurrency market won't fare well either.
分析师舒琴
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Bitcoin Double Top, should we short now? Or go long?
Everyone look at the chart, don't rush! If Bitcoin breaks out, it could go to 88,000. If you really want to short, you must see a downtrend, which means a false breakout followed by a drop back down. This way, you can short and see what happens; if it rebounds again, then cut losses and go long.
If it breaks out and doesn't drop back, then it's a true breakout. Those who bought the dip before can hold on a bit longer, and the brave can also chase the long position, but the stop-loss remains the same: if it drops back again, then take the loss.
So if you really want to trade short-term, you need to refine the details and watch the market closely, especially in places where there are significant long-short discrepancies. You need to be very careful; if successful, the profits will be substantial!
Everyone look at the chart, don't rush! If Bitcoin breaks out, it could go to 88,000. If you really want to short, you must see a downtrend, which means a false breakout followed by a drop back down. This way, you can short and see what happens; if it rebounds again, then cut losses and go long.
If it breaks out and doesn't drop back, then it's a true breakout. Those who bought the dip before can hold on a bit longer, and the brave can also chase the long position, but the stop-loss remains the same: if it drops back again, then take the loss.
So if you really want to trade short-term, you need to refine the details and watch the market closely, especially in places where there are significant long-short discrepancies. You need to be very careful; if successful, the profits will be substantial!
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This data was released prior to the tariff announcement on Liberation Day.
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Something's wrong, the CPI is very positive, yet the market is still down?
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The piano is emotional, you need to stay calm.
分析师舒琴
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Come on, shorts, just short me hard. If you want to short at 2000, I will never sell. Worst case, I get stuck for a year, what's there to be afraid of? But once 2000 holds, it's going to be from 2000 to 4000, and if you short at the lowest board, you better think it through.
Currently, holding cash, the worst-case scenario is being trapped for a year, but there’s a high probability I can catch a rebound in a month. Why should I sell at 2000 and cut my losses? It's completely unnecessary.
The selling pressure is dissipating, and the buying strength is increasing. Such a good buying opportunity, wouldn’t the big whales buy a bit?
For those still fantasizing about a big waterfall, go ahead and short. The panic sellers have already sold out; what remains are diamond hands, all seasoned investors like us, not afraid at all. Don't expect us to sell at 2000; that’s impossible.
Currently, holding cash, the worst-case scenario is being trapped for a year, but there’s a high probability I can catch a rebound in a month. Why should I sell at 2000 and cut my losses? It's completely unnecessary.
The selling pressure is dissipating, and the buying strength is increasing. Such a good buying opportunity, wouldn’t the big whales buy a bit?
For those still fantasizing about a big waterfall, go ahead and short. The panic sellers have already sold out; what remains are diamond hands, all seasoned investors like us, not afraid at all. Don't expect us to sell at 2000; that’s impossible.
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