Moutai, which has fallen for seven consecutive days, topped the list of hot stocks, with its share price hitting a 22-month low. In October 2022, it also fell below 1,400. At that time, the market had doubts about the third-quarter report. As a result, Moutai's performance shattered the doubts and the stock price rebounded quickly.
In comparison, the situation this time is much more complicated. The overall consumer market is sluggish, and the price of Moutai in the secondary market has experienced a sharp drop. The price of a single bottle of Feitian in bulk has dropped to as low as 2,080. Although the price has been stabilized by reducing supply and other measures, market confidence is still somewhat shaky.
Then yesterday, UBS's research report gave another push. The core idea is that the annual compound growth rate in 2024-2025 will drop from 19% to 8%. Due to the expansion of production capacity in the past few years, high-end liquor will face great retail pressure in the next one and a half years. It also pessimistically predicted that the wholesale prices of Moutai and Wuliangye may fall by 50% and 17% by the end of 2025, and stabilize until 2026.
The -50% forecast confuses me. The wholesale price of Moutai will drop to around 1,200 yuan? Is UBS serious? If so, the stock price will definitely fall below 1,000 yuan, or even around 600-700 yuan. I think this forecast is too radical.
Will it fall back to the 2018 platform? Will Kweichow Moutai become the next photovoltaic or lithium mine? I am not that bearish, but after experiencing what has happened in the past few years, I dare not say it is impossible.
Moutai's current ttmpe is 22 times, and the dividend rate is 2.24%. Some people say that buying Moutai and getting dividends is better than bank interest. This is true statically, but the premise is that Moutai's price cannot fall. Otherwise, revenue and profits will decline, and dividends will inevitably shrink simultaneously.
Electricity stocks have been popular this year because electricity consumption is not considered consumption, but a rigid expenditure in life. People may not consume when their income drops, but they will not stop using electricity. When the economy is bad, consumer goods will fall in price, but electricity bills will not fall.
As for me personally, I will definitely not buy the dip at 1,400 as the risk-reward ratio is low. I will discuss it again if the price drops a lot later. In principle, I will not add to my A-share holdings easily. I would rather miss out than make a mistake.
……
In fact, the A-share market as a whole was not bad today. Although the trading volume was still less than 600 billion, the performance of small and medium-sized stocks was still acceptable, with the median increasing by +0.42%.
That is, the net outflow of foreign capital in the northbound channel continued to be 2.4 billion. As of today's close, the cumulative net inflow of the northbound channel in 2024 is only 2.3 billion, which means that if there is another wave tomorrow, it will become negative in 2024. This is also a historical turning point, because since the northbound channel was opened in 2014, there have been net inflows in the past 9 years, and there has never been a negative annual figure.
The actual situation may even be worse than this, because in order to rescue the market this year, some official offshore foreign exchange has been used to support A-shares through the northbound channel. Although there is no clear data disclosure, I can't say how many billions it is, but it should be more than 2.3 billion. So if we only calculate pure foreign investment, it should have been negative this year.
At the end of today's trading, several CSI 300 ETFs saw another surge in volume, as the national team continued to buy. Didn't you ask me before why the market didn't rise after I bought so much? I think the answer is clear: foreign capital is selling, public funds are redeeming, and even retail investors are most likely cutting their losses and dumping them all to the national team.
Of course, the scale of these sales is not large. After all, there is only a small trading volume in a day. It’s just that there are even fewer buyers now. Even an old stock investor like me who has been trading for almost 20 years is unwilling to increase my holdings with more than 1,000 yuan in cash. I guess other people are similar to me.
In the first 40 years of my life, I experienced small inflation and large inflation, either fast or slow inflation, and I have never experienced negative inflation of this degree. I was also observing and learning.
……
1. I saw the news in the evening that Vice Chairman Fang of the China Securities Regulatory Commission has been replaced by Li Ming. This name has a good meaning, the dawn is coming and the night is about to pass. Like most government agencies in China, the deputy positions with real power are usually responsible for specific business. Vice Chairman Fang has been in this position for many years. I don’t know how he feels about the current state of A-shares.
2. The bond market has further risen, and the 30-year treasury bond ETF has hit a new high. The longer the year, the greater the leverage. The annual interest rate fluctuates by 0.01%, and the fluctuation in 30 years is 0.3%. Previously, it retreated due to the suppression of the central bank, but it has risen again recently. Due to the expectation of further interest rate cuts in the future, the group of people who are long on bonds have continued to fall. It is really true that the ones that should rise are not rising, and the ones that should not rise are humming non-stop. In the past two years, our family has bought a large proportion of public bond funds. Although we have not made a lot of money, we still have 4-5% a year.
3. The concept of driverless cars continues to surge, and the leading stocks have risen for 15 consecutive days. Under the sluggish market, the few hot money in the market has all gone to a concept sector. The low-altitude economy that was popular for several months has gradually become outdated. At this time, as long as the next relay concept does not appear, driverless cars can still be tossed for a while.
4. The chairman of the board of directors of the listed company Laobaixing was detained and investigated.
5. Buffett continued to reduce his holdings of Bank of America shares, selling more than $3 billion this month. It seems that the old man is indeed not optimistic about US bank stocks, and may think that the upcoming interest rate cut cycle will affect the profitability of banks. I don’t have any bank stocks in my US stock portfolio, it doesn’t matter. In addition to buying some technology stocks personally, I rarely buy stocks in traditional industries. Basically, buying Berkshire is enough.
6. Hong Kong's private residential index was updated. It fell 1.2% month-on-month last month, hitting a new low in nearly 8 years, and fell 13% year-on-year. The cumulative decline in the first half of the year was 3.1%. However, there is something strange about Hong Kong. The rental index rose by 0.2% last month. Currently, the rental-to-sale ratio of Hong Kong properties has reached 4%, which is significantly higher than the average level of the mainland.
That's all.