One. Macroeconomic risk factors
1. Inflation rebound pressure
Core PCE inflation rate rebounds across the board, expected core CPI to return to 4% by early 2025
Three-month annualized core CPI close to 4%, indicating persistent inflation pressure
Long-term inflation expectations rise above 3%, higher than historical average
2. Abnormalities in the bond market
10-year Treasury yield surges by 85 basis points
Bond ETF (TLT) down 11% within three months
30-year mortgage rate rises from 6% to 7%, suppressing real estate market vitality
Two. Deterioration of consumer financial conditions
1. Credit card debt issues
Credit card debt surpasses $1 trillion, a historic high
Credit card interest rates reach 21.76%, a historic high
Credit card default rate reaches historic high levels
2. Savings conditions
Personal savings rate drops to 4.4%, at a historical low
Excess savings accumulated during the pandemic have been largely depleted
Consumer savings continue to decrease, risk resilience declines
Three. Market risk warning
1. Stock market risks
US market evaporates $1.5 trillion in market value in a single day
Major tech stocks generally decline, market sentiment turns pessimistic
S&P 500 expected to potentially drop 10% within three months
2. Bitcoin correlation
Bitcoin expected to potentially drop 25%
Highly correlated with overall market risk appetite
Significantly affected by expectations of Federal Reserve policy
Four. Potential triggering factors
1. Fiscal pressure
Fiscal deficit reaches $1.8 trillion (6.4% of GDP)
Annual interest expenses exceed $1 trillion
US dollar index rises by 7%, exacerbating international market volatility