舒服的龙龙
以太坊是比特币的测绘网
热爱挖矿和交易
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Morph may use BGB as a Naive Token
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2024, The Decoupling Phenomenon between M2 and BTC
With the digitalization of the global economy and the complexity of financial markets, Bitcoin has gradually become a focus for investors as an emerging digital asset. Meanwhile, M2 money supply, as an important indicator of monetary liquidity, profoundly impacts asset prices.
1. Basic Concepts of Bitcoin and M2
1. Bitcoin
Decentralized Digital Currency: Not reliant on central banks or single management entities, based on blockchain technology.
Scarcity: Total supply limited to 21 million coins, exhibiting anti-inflation characteristics.
High Volatility: Prices are easily influenced by market sentiment, policies, and other factors, resulting in significant fluctuations.
1. Basic Concepts of Bitcoin and M2
1. Bitcoin
Decentralized Digital Currency: Not reliant on central banks or single management entities, based on blockchain technology.
Scarcity: Total supply limited to 21 million coins, exhibiting anti-inflation characteristics.
High Volatility: Prices are easily influenced by market sentiment, policies, and other factors, resulting in significant fluctuations.
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Analysis of MicroStrategy MSTR
MicroStrategy (MSTR) is facing a critical inflection point in the current dynamic environment of the cryptocurrency market. As the largest publicly listed Bitcoin holder, the company's financials and market performance present a complex risk-return profile.
Market performance and risk outlook
MSTR's current share price is at $326.46. Although it has achieved a significant increase of 481.82% during the year, it has recently shown a high correction trend, with a single-day decline of 6.63%. This volatility reflects the market's ambivalence towards the company's strategy. The significant increase in trading volume (the recent daily average has exceeded 25 million shares) indicates that institutional investors may be making important position adjustments.
Market performance and risk outlook
MSTR's current share price is at $326.46. Although it has achieved a significant increase of 481.82% during the year, it has recently shown a high correction trend, with a single-day decline of 6.63%. This volatility reflects the market's ambivalence towards the company's strategy. The significant increase in trading volume (the recent daily average has exceeded 25 million shares) indicates that institutional investors may be making important position adjustments.
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The Correlation Between Bitcoin and U.S. Stocks
The correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. stock market has reached unprecedented levels. Through extensive analysis of market data, we find that this correlation is not only reflected in price trends but also deeply mirrors structural changes in the entire financial system.
According to the latest data, the 30-day rolling correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has reached 0.68, significantly up from 0.45 at the same time last year. Notably, this correlation tends to strengthen further during periods of increased market volatility. When we extend the time frame to 90 days, the correlation coefficient remains at a high level of 0.65, indicating that this relationship has enduring characteristics.
According to the latest data, the 30-day rolling correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has reached 0.68, significantly up from 0.45 at the same time last year. Notably, this correlation tends to strengthen further during periods of increased market volatility. When we extend the time frame to 90 days, the correlation coefficient remains at a high level of 0.65, indicating that this relationship has enduring characteristics.
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Correlation of Bitcoin with the US market and risk of decline
One. Macroeconomic risk factors
1. Inflation rebound pressure
Core PCE inflation rate rebounds across the board, expected core CPI to return to 4% by early 2025
Three-month annualized core CPI close to 4%, indicating persistent inflation pressure
Long-term inflation expectations rise above 3%, higher than historical average
2. Abnormalities in the bond market
10-year Treasury yield surges by 85 basis points
Bond ETF (TLT) down 11% within three months
30-year mortgage rate rises from 6% to 7%, suppressing real estate market vitality
Two. Deterioration of consumer financial conditions
1. Credit card debt issues
Credit card debt surpasses $1 trillion, a historic high
Credit card interest rates reach 21.76%, a historic high
1. Inflation rebound pressure
Core PCE inflation rate rebounds across the board, expected core CPI to return to 4% by early 2025
Three-month annualized core CPI close to 4%, indicating persistent inflation pressure
Long-term inflation expectations rise above 3%, higher than historical average
2. Abnormalities in the bond market
10-year Treasury yield surges by 85 basis points
Bond ETF (TLT) down 11% within three months
30-year mortgage rate rises from 6% to 7%, suppressing real estate market vitality
Two. Deterioration of consumer financial conditions
1. Credit card debt issues
Credit card debt surpasses $1 trillion, a historic high
Credit card interest rates reach 21.76%, a historic high
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