美联储FOMC会议

Industry Dynamics Analysis

1. The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates unchanged in May is 97.3%; 2. Tether Treasury minted an additional 1 billion USDT on the Tron chain; 3. The U.S. SEC postponed its decision on the Canary spot Litecoin ETF; 4. Solana has fixed a vulnerability that could allow attackers to mint and steal tokens infinitely; 5. A draft discussion on the U.S. digital asset regulatory framework has been released; 6. BlackRock holds over $5 billion in Bitcoin-related stocks; 7. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen: A trade agreement may be reached as early as this week.

The latest 13F filing for the first quarter of 2025 from BlackRock shows a significant increase in its Bitcoin-related asset holdings. The report indicates that the company has invested a total of $5.43 billion in Bitcoin spot ETFs and stocks related to Bitcoin treasury and mining operations. This figure marks a substantial increase compared to the fourth quarter of 2024, reflecting growing institutional confidence in cryptocurrencies. Notably, the flagship Bitcoin spot ETF under BlackRock—IBIT—increased its holdings from 2.6 million shares to 5.85 million shares, valued at $273.9 million. Additionally, BlackRock has opened a new position in Fidelity's FBTC for the first time, currently holding 70,971 shares valued at $5.1 million. At the same time, it has also established smaller positions in Grayscale's GBTC and GBTC Mini.

Today's Bitcoin Trading Suggestion
Follow yesterday's approach: It is suggested to build a position near 94,000 for the first time, then add another near 92,000. Stop-loss at 89,900, take profit at 98,500. Position can be 3%.

#美联储FOMC会议

The night before the major breakout, Bitcoin is stuck at 94K, and this Wednesday three nuclear-level events will ignite the crypto world! #美联储FOMC会议

Turtle's Viewpoint: Bitcoin (BTC) is oscillating between 94K-95K this week, appearing steady on the surface, but in reality, the undercurrents are surging! Brothers, fasten your seatbelts, these three 'nuclear bombs' could break through the ceiling at any moment.

1. U.S. Treasury is holding back big moves: National Strategic Currency Reserve Plan
The U.S. Treasury has been working on the Bitcoin strategic reserve report for two months, which must be submitted today (May 6)!

In March, the knowledgeable one mentioned using seized Bitcoin for national reserves, and now the whole world is watching this report—once the U.S. takes the lead, other countries will follow suit and buy in bulk, and Bitcoin will soar!

Look at the on-chain data: last week, 42,000 BTC flowed out of exchanges, with whales already laying low in advance.

BlackRock's IBIT absorbed 1 billion dollars in a single day; institutions understand: national entry = epic FOMO!

2. Is the Federal Reserve backing down? Interest rates remain unchanged, rate cut expectations are 'dove killed.'
The U.S. GDP shrank by 0.3% in the first quarter, the knowledgeable one shifts the blame to the previous administration, but the Federal Reserve is likely to back down this week—interest rates stubbornly hold at 4.25%!

CME data predicts the probability of a rate cut plummets to 7%; if Powell speaks hawkishly again, both the U.S. stock market and the crypto market will tremble.

But don’t panic! Bitcoin's anti-inflation properties are fully engaged, with an annual inflation rate of 1.7% beating the dollar's 3.1%.

Grayscale's GBTC has attracted 4.2 billion dollars this year; institutions have already treated BTC as 'digital gold' to hedge against stagflation!

Follow Turtle, penetrate the K-line fog, and let the night before the breakout help you position early!

Conclusion: Bull markets often experience sharp drops, while bear markets often see sharp rises, but with national endorsement + institutional lock-up scripts, only trust Bitcoin by 2025!

Weekly Major Events Preview

1. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday)
Market Expectations

Maintain the interest rate (probability > 99%), but pay attention to the dot plot's revision on the number of rate cuts in 2024.

Powell's speech may downplay political pressure, emphasizing data dependence (especially inflation stickiness and employment resilience). Potential Variables

If the statement removes the phrase "restrictive stance" or hints at an early end to balance sheet reduction, it will be seen as a dovish signal.

Geopolitical risks (Middle East conflict) may unexpectedly affect the Fed's risk assessment.

Viewpoint

In the short term, the Fed is more inclined to "buy time for space", with a probability of rate cuts below 30% before June. However, if the Q2 labor market significantly deteriorates, they may be forced to shift.

2. China's April Trade Data (Friday)

Tariff Effects Begin to Surface

The U.S. has escalated tariffs against China (such as on electric vehicles and photovoltaics), which may lead to an accelerated decline in exports to the U.S., and the Southeast Asia re-export trade data is worth cross-verifying.

Weak domestic demand drags down imports, with iron ore and semiconductor import volumes becoming key observation points.
Market Impact

If the data worsens beyond expectations, it may put pressure on the RMB exchange rate and intensify foreign capital outflow pressure on A-shares.

Pay attention to expectations for China's countermeasures (such as rare earth export controls and WTO lawsuits).
Viewpoint

The impact of the trade war has shifted from expectations to actual data manifestation, but the effects of policy countermeasures (equipment upgrades/consumer goods trade-ins) may be seen in the third quarter.

3. China's April CPI/PPI (Saturday)
Key Logic

Low CPI reflects weak recovery on the consumption side, but the rise in pig prices month-over-month may provide support.

PPI has shown negative growth for 19 consecutive months, pointing to ongoing deflationary pressure on industrial products, putting pressure on corporate profits.
Policy Clues

If the data is below expectations, a reserve requirement ratio cut or targeted easing may not be ruled out in Q2.

This week, the market will face a dual test of "hawkish pressure from the Federal Reserve" and "weak Chinese data", potentially leading to significant increases in risk asset volatility. Recommendations to pay attention to:

1. Sensitivity of the USD/RMB exchange rate to policy discrepancies;

2. Performance downgrade risks in export-dependent sectors (electronics, textiles) in Hong Kong stocks.
#美联储FOMC会议 #欧盟隐私币禁令

Explore my portfolio mix. Follow to see how I invest! #美联储FOMC会议 Follow the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, how the upcoming June meeting will affect market liquidity and credit costs. The interest rate decision will trigger sharp fluctuations in assets such as cryptocurrencies, presenting both opportunities and risks. Be careful to control individual position sizes, set take-profit and stop-loss levels, pay attention to the market fear index, and develop an operating strategy. $BTC

After the profit effect brought by the removal of concepts has ended, the market has entered garbage time again. It depends on whether the Fed's interest rate decision results in any external stimulus to create new hotspots in the next couple of days. By the way, any good news for ETH is just playing tricks. #美联储FOMC会议

During the Labor Day period, Bitcoin's performance was relatively weak, but the technical indicators are nearing their support limits. Coupled with the continuous inflow of institutional ETFs and signs of some derivatives shorts taking profits, a stronger rebound window may emerge in mid to late May.
If it stabilizes above the 95,000 mark this week, BTC is expected to restart its upward target to 98,500 and even challenge the year's high of 102,000. Conversely, if it breaks below the MA200 and falls below 92,800, it will enter a phase of adjustment, targeting the 89,000 area. Investors are advised to closely monitor Federal Reserve policies and ETF trends, and to manage leverage and positions reasonably in response to the current high volatility market.

#美国众议院市场结构讨论草案 #美联储FOMC会议

全球紧盯美联储！5月8日会否释放降息信号？

5月6日，距离美联储利率决议只剩最后不到40小时，全球市场屏息以待。尽管投资者都在期待降息的好消息，但现实可能要让大多数人失望了——这次美联储可能连"未来可能降息"这样的暗示都不会给。

降息为何这么难？关键要看两个条件：

第一，通胀必须完全控制住；

第二，经济必须出现严重问题。

目前来看，这两个条件都不满足，5月降息基本没戏。

更让市场揪心的是，特朗普政府的关税政策变来变去，给未来增添了很多不确定性。除非出现重大经济变故，否则降息短期内可能只是投资者的美好愿望。

特朗普最近频频在社交媒体喊话："根本没有通胀，快降息！"原因很简单——降息能刺激经济、提振股市，这些都是他想要的政治资本。但美联储真的会听他的吗？

与此同时，加密货币市场也在酝酿变局。明天以太坊将迎来重要升级。历史经验显示，每次升级后以太坊价格往往大跌，比如上次直接从4000美元腰斩。这次会重蹈覆辙吗？还是会先涨后跌？市场正拭目以待。

在这个充满不确定性的时刻，投资者最需要的是冷静观察。美联储的一举一动、经济数据的微妙变化，都可能成为影响市场的关键因素。

记住：市场永远在波动中创造机会，但也暗藏风险。

#美联储FOMC会议 $BTC #加密市场回调 $ETH

Three Major Market Triggers:

1. Federal Reserve Statements and Macro Interest Rate Cues: The FOMC meeting minutes are set to be released this week, and the market is paying attention to whether they suggest a delay in future rate cuts or an early tightening. If the stance is hawkish, it will create short pressure on BTC.
2. Performance of the US Tech Sector: If the Nasdaq continues to rebound, it may encourage digital assets to warm up in sync, especially crypto assets linked to AI concepts will strengthen first.
3. Changes in ETF Fund Flows: If IBIT inflows restart significantly this evening, it will become a strong reversal signal.

#美联储FOMC会议 #美国众议院市场结构讨论草案

On May 8, 2023, the "lottery day" of the Federal Reserve, global investors held their breath. Just like gamblers waiting for the lottery results, everyone hopes to hit the "jackpot" of interest rate cuts. Unfortunately, reality is always harsh— the Federal Reserve may not only remain inactive but is also stingy with even a comforting word like "we might cut rates in the future."

Interest rate cuts have never been a whim of the Federal Reserve. Either inflation must completely bow down, or the economy is on the brink of collapse; neither of these two iron rules applies now. Inflation is still playing tricks, the economy can still breathe, and with the back-and-forth of tariff policies, a rate cut in May is basically a pipe dream.

The cryptocurrency world is also gloomy. Ethereum just underwent a "makeover" on May 7, and was supposed to shine, yet the market didn’t even spare it a glance. The last upgrade led to a dramatic price halving, and though this time it might offer a candy before a slap, who can say for sure?

Bitcoin has recently resembled a deflated balloon, unable to break through the $90,000 ceiling no matter how it bounces. If it can't hold the $91,000 bottom line, it might directly roll down to $89,000 to cry. Ethereum's $1,810 is like the last shred of dignity; if it can't maintain this respect, the so-called rebound is nothing but self-deception.

The market is like a capricious lover, smiling at you today and making you cry tomorrow. In this turbulent sea, rather than being led by emotions, it’s better to fasten your seatbelt and keep an eye on the Federal Reserve as a weather vane. After all, in the financial market, lasting longer is more important than earning faster.

The market is constantly changing, and the above is just my personal opinion, for reference only. If you feel anxious about the market, or if your trades are frequently trapped, don’t be stubborn— talking it out might bring clarity.

May 6, 2025 Digital Currency Update:

1. Nvidia is reported to be researching the inclusion of Bitcoin on its balance sheet.

2. The U.S. SEC plans to hold its fourth cryptocurrency roundtable on May 12, with executives from BlackRock, Fidelity, Nasdaq, and other institutions in attendance.

3. Data shows that last week, Bitcoin ETF purchases in the U.S. were nearly six times the miners' output.

4. Analysts indicate that key support levels for BTC are at $92,500 and $89,000, with traders focused on the Federal Reserve meeting.

5. Bitfinex reports that Bitcoin's closing performance in April was strong, with miner reserves remaining stable.

6. Bloomberg ETF analysts state that BlackRock's IBIT has ranked eighth in fund inflows year-to-date.

7. Data shows that last week, there was a net outflow of 15,700 BTC from exchanges, reducing the total balance to 2.2 million BTC.

8. Bernstein predicts that by 2029, companies will purchase an additional $330 billion in Bitcoin.

9. 88% of Bitcoin is in profit, and investors expect the structure may have reset.

10. The U.S. House Financial Services Committee releases a draft discussion of the "2025 Digital Asset Market Structure Act."

11. The U.S. SEC has postponed its decision on Canary Capital's Litecoin spot ETF application.

12. The U.S. CFTC plans to participate as an observer in several industry tokenization pilot projects.

13. Michael Saylor claims that year-to-date, Strategy's Bitcoin yield has reached 14%.

14. Analysts note that the ETH/BTC volatility indicator is tightening, with the market focused on Ethereum's Pectra upgrade trends.

15. QCP states that institutional demand for Bitcoin ETFs continues, with Strategy's increasing BTC holdings highlighting a long-term positive outlook.

16. Tether CEO states that Tether AI aims to build a technological foundation for the vision of AI in Asimov's science fiction novels. #美联储FOMC会议

The current market is continuing in a state of fluctuating upward movement.
Tomorrow evening's interest rate meeting + Prague upgrade
Will directly determine whether the current market continues to decline or rebounds from the bottom.

There are still many opportunities to get on board!

Several good targets have already been found in the village, preparing to sneak in and buy at the bottom. Last month, we already made a double profit from $WIF .$ai16Z. If you also want to earn double profits, you need to hurry up; I can wait for you, but the points won't wait for you!

Continuing to observe: $MKR $XRP $sui $trump

#美联储FOMC会议 #加密市场回调 #美国众议院市场结构讨论草案

Market Weekly Outlook: Tariff Clouds Loom, Is This the Final Carnival Before the Fed's Decision?

In the new week, global markets continue to be troubled by tariff issues. The US and even the global real economy have already been affected, but negotiation progress is slow, and the situation may further deteriorate in the coming two months. On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, and the market is holding its breath — hopes for a rate cut are slim, but any slight movement could trigger severe volatility.
#美联储FOMC会议 \
Bitcoin has turned downward after hovering around 96,000 for the past week, while US stocks have risen for seven consecutive days, entering overbought territory. Various signs indicate that the market may soon face a correction.
Is this peak of the rebound perhaps the last chance to exit?

My Strategy: Move with Caution and Adapt Flexibly
Long-term Position: Reduced by 70%, retaining 30% to avoid missing out. If the market crashes, there’s enough firepower; if it continues to rise, there’s still some position to follow.
Short-term Swing: Recently playing small swings of 3-5 days, capturing market fluctuations without being greedy or overly attached.
Intraday Trading: Completely go with the flow, indifferent to rises and falls, not fixating on short-term volatility.
Bitcoin Short-term Trend: Rebound is a test, 96,000 is the key watershed
#Strategy增持比特币
Bitcoin may have a brief rebound in the next couple of days, but if it approaches 96,000, this will become the new battleground for bulls and bears. If it fails to break through, it may turn downward again.

I opened a short position when Bitcoin broke below 95,800, planning to take partial profits around 93,000. For reference only; everyone should adjust their strategies according to their risk preferences.

The market changes rapidly, and no one can predict the direction 100% of the time, but having a contingency plan can prevent being swayed by emotions. Don’t be greedy when it rises, don’t panic when it falls, and steady progress is the long-term way.

It’s better to keep your eyes open for opportunities than to blindly gamble; follow my account, and I will share some early projects in potential tracks, as well as practical strategies that can truly be implemented.

No. 7 $ETH upgrade meets No. 8 Federal Reserve decision?

The recent frenzy in the crypto circle is just a slaughterhouse set up by the main forces! The bloody lessons of history are well-known in the market: the "good news" that everyone knows is always the knife for cutting leeks!

Historical data is irrefutable: last year's three upgrades + Federal Reserve meeting week, ETH averaged a plunge of 23%!

This time, CME positions show that the short positions have broken historical peaks, clearly waiting for news to land and violently dump. Only a fool would believe in any “positive news landing,” this is an obvious city slaughter!

Are you trapped? When to buy the dip? Still the same saying, confused and helpless not knowing what to do, click on the avatar to comment. I need fans, you need references.

#加密市场回调 #Strategy增持比特币 #美联储FOMC会议

Those holding long positions should pay attention

If the FOMC meeting at 2 AM on Thursday indicates a hawkish or dovish stance

Then it is very natural for this range to complete its construction and break through or break down

After all, whether it is upward or continuing

The liquidity in the futures market is somewhat insufficient, and the short liquidity above is more of a name than reality

Most short positions may have been closed before noon

While the new liquidity for long positions below is quite limited, not to mention there are three obvious gaps...

Therefore, letting the price oscillate for another 2 days to continue accumulating futures liquidity, and additionally leaving the range, ensures that some upward or downward movement can be sustained

The current situation actually does not allow me to confidently turn bearish; I always feel that the oscillation here will last longer than expected.
$BNB $ETH $BTC
#美联储FOMC会议 #美国众议院市场结构讨论草案 #Strategy增持比特币