#美联储 The grand performance is about to begin! #鲍威尔 Will interest rates be cut? It all depends on this statement!

Tomorrow morning, the most important thing in the market is #美联储FOMC会议 .

Although based on the current data, it is almost impossible to cut interest rates at this July meeting, Powell's speech is still crucial and may have a key impact on subsequent market trends.

We have already seen that two members of the Federal Reserve have clearly opposed Powell continuing his 'hawkish' stance and instead support the 'interest rate cut theory' of the #Trump camp. However, from Powell's recent statements, it appears that the Federal Reserve is currently weighing two risks:

First, cutting rates too early could trigger a new wave of inflation, and it may take the market one to two years to recover;

Second, cutting rates too late, although the risk is smaller, could lead to a prolonged economic slowdown.

Therefore, Powell is now more inclined to take a conservative approach. This means that even if there is no rate cut this time, as long as the upcoming economic data shows a clear weakening, the Federal Reserve may still accelerate rate cuts on September 17—such as increasing from the originally expected 25 basis points directly to 50 or even 75 basis points.

Overall, tomorrow morning's #FOMC meeting is one of the turning points for the market and may determine the main rhythm of the entire market in the coming weeks.