元宸日记

Last night's market review:
The price comparison maintained a strong sideways trend, and the bears failed to dominate the pullback rhythm, completing a strong correction through sideways adjustment, oscillating around 103000. Ethereum synchronized with the consolidation, after dipping to a low of 2582 in the early morning, it stopped falling, currently running around 2595, with narrowing volatility.

From a technical analysis perspective, the daily level shows a fluctuating pattern, with a small bearish K-line accompanied by a long lower shadow, the Bollinger Bands opening upwards then tending to parallel, indicating that the market has entered an adjustment and accumulation phase. After three consecutive days of multiple long lower shadows, alternating bullish and bearish K-lines appeared, with gradually rising low points, showing that the bulls still have a strong dominance, with limited downward space and strong rebound repair strength. The four-hour level shows a quick rebound after two consecutive bearish candles, with clear support moving upwards, it is expected that the price comparison will likely continue the oscillating upward rhythm, waiting for a breakthrough opportunity, in the short term, it may first slightly retract before accumulating momentum for an upward attack.

Bitcoin 102600-103000 targeting 104500
Ethereum 2560-2580 targeting 2650

#美国加征关税 #代币发射平台竞争加剧 #CPI数据来袭 $ETH $BTC

【Cryptocurrency Market Analysis】Bitcoin Aunt's High-Level Fluctuation Intensifies, Bull-Bear Contest Shows Trend Change Signals

The overnight cryptocurrency market exhibited significant volatility, with Bitcoin (BTC) price once surging to $104,950, and then quickly retracing under the pressure of resistance above, currently maintaining a fluctuating consolidation in the $103,800 region. Both bulls and bears are fiercely contesting around the $104,000 mark; Ethereum (ETH) mirrored the high-to-low trend, briefly touching $2,738 before quickly retreating, currently trading around $2,690, with a short-term support range forming around $2,680.

On the technical side, the daily level maintains a high-level fluctuation structure, with prices running near the upper Bollinger Bands for several days, but the 4-hour level has shown signs of fatigue: the MACD indicator presents a consolidation pattern below the zero line, and the red histogram's momentum continues to decay, indicating that the rebound driving force is gradually weakening; the Bollinger Bands are tightening, and the price fluctuation range has narrowed to the upper-middle band area, suggesting a cautious trading environment, with declining volume hinting at a potential directional choice in the short term.

The suggested trading strategy focuses on buying low and selling high, seizing swing opportunities within the fluctuation range:
In the morning, it is advisable to consider lightly entering long positions when the price retraces to $103,500-$103,800 (Bitcoin) or $2,680-$2,690 (Ethereum), with targets looking up at $104,500-$104,800 and $2,730, respectively, and stop-loss references below $103,000 (Bitcoin) and $2,650 (Ethereum).

Risk Warning: The current market is in a high-volatility range, and strict position control is required (suggested single position ≤ 2%), with stop-loss space references of $300-$500 for Bitcoin and $20-$30 for Ethereum, and closely monitoring the impact of macro data on market sentiment during the evening US trading session to guard against sudden breakout situations.

#加密圆桌会议要点 #CPI数据来袭 #ETH突破2500 $BTC $ETH

5.13 Bitcoin Price Analysis:
Yesterday's highest was 105800 and lowest was 100670, with a pullback of over 5000 points overnight, expected to retest the 100000 level and consolidate.

The daily Bollinger Bands are expanding upwards but the MACD volume is decreasing, with DIF and DEA contracting at a high level, indicating a return from overbought conditions. On the four-hour level, pay attention to the mid-level pressure at 103550; if it doesn't break, take profit on long positions, but if it breaks, look for resistance at 105000.

After a strong rally last week, this week is expected to be more volatile, short-term trades can be made at high pressure points or low support points, with a focus on the 100000 support and 103550 defense, operate with light positions and stop losses to avoid chasing highs and selling lows.

Bitcoin around 102000-102400 looking up to 104000
Ethereum around 2430-2470 looking up to 2550
#Strategy增持比特币 #ETH突破2500 #BTC重返10万 $BTC $ETH

After the reduction of tariffs, various digital currencies in the market are rising. Bitcoin has increased by more than 2000 points, and Ethereum has also risen by more than 90 points. This upward trend has become very obvious. However, Yuanchen believes that this wave of market growth has not yet ended, and the bullish forces in the market are very strong right now. If there are patient friends, they can maintain their current positions and observe the subsequent market situation before making operational plans.

#新闻交易 #贸易战缓和 #ETH突破2500 $BTC $ETH

Recently, the virtual currency market has shown structural fluctuations under the resonance of technological upgrades and capital influx, with the core dynamics as follows:

1. Leading cryptocurrencies drive the market, with significant differentiation

- Bitcoin (BTC): Surpassed $100,000 to create a new annual high, spot ETF has accumulated over $40 billion, with a strong technical outlook but short-term overbought signals appearing.
- Ethereum (ETH): Upgraded, driving a 40% surge in 72 hours, large whales increasing holdings combined with short liquidation pushing up the market, with a clear trend of capital concentrating on the top assets.
- Other cryptocurrencies: XRP weakened due to regulatory pressures, mainstream coins like BNB experiencing short-term volatility, and altcoins lagging behind.

2. Core driving forces: Dual drivers of technology and capital

1. Infrastructure upgrades: Ethereum's Pectra upgrade enhances network efficiency, with high Layer 2 locked amounts; Bitcoin's Lightning Network optimization is being implemented.
2. Institutional capital inflow: Bitcoin ETF size has reached $118.6 billion, with BlackRock and others continuously increasing positions; large-scale short liquidations in the futures market boost sentiment.
3. Regulatory and macro environment: The US and EU strengthen compliance reviews, while China's digital yuan pilot accelerates; expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve boost risk appetite.

3. Risks and challenges

- Technical security: Frequent hacking attacks, increased risks in private key management and smart contract vulnerabilities.
- Regulatory uncertainty: Cryptocurrencies like XRP face delays in ETF approvals, and EU regulations on stablecoins may impact market structure.
- Short-term volatility: Both Bitcoin and Ethereum have entered overbought territory, and policy implementation may trigger technical corrections.

4. Outlook: Structural opportunities and long-term logic

- Short-term: Bitcoin needs to consolidate around the $100,000 mark, and Ethereum breaking above $2,600 could open up upward space, while being cautious of policy fluctuations.
- Mid-term: The Bitcoin halving and interest rate cut cycle resonance may push new highs, while the development of the Ethereum ecosystem determines the valuation ceiling.
- Long-term: The interconnectivity of central bank digital currencies reshapes the payment system, and the integration of blockchain with emerging technologies enhances the value of crypto assets.

Summary: The market is dominated by leading assets, with institutional capital and technological upgrades serving as core support, but regulatory risks and short-term volatility need to be monitored. Investors should focus on mainstream cryptocurrencies and flexibly allocate based on on-chain data and macro dynamics.
#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #币安Alpha上新 #BTC重返10万 $BTC $ETH

Good morning, friends! After two days of high-level consolidation over the weekend, while the bullish momentum of the pancake has slightly slowed compared to the previous period, it still maintains a strong reserve of momentum overall. It is noteworthy that the current lower support level and the phase high point are both showing varying degrees of upward movement, clearly outlining the oscillating upward rhythm.

From the four-hour technical chart, the Bollinger Bands are in a state of contraction, indicating that the market is in a phase of potential directional selection. The price is facing significant resistance around the 105000 line, and the candlestick pattern shows alternating highs and lows, which, rather than being a drawback, provides potential momentum for a subsequent breakout. Combining the current market structure's upward rhythm with the signals from technical indicators, we maintain an optimistic outlook on the continuation of bullish strength.

In terms of early trading strategy, it is recommended to continue with a low-buy approach, seizing retracement opportunities within the oscillation range, with a focus on the effective support strength and confirmation of breakout signals. The market often nurtures a new trend starting point during the accumulation process, so maintaining tracking of the bullish structure and operating principles in line with the trend is expected to capture the benefits of trend continuation in the subsequent market.

Pancake buy near 103000-103500, looking towards 105000.
Ethereum buy near 2450-2480, looking towards 2650.
#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #山寨币交易 #本周高光时刻 $BTC $ETH

This concubine is crazy, still charging forward

Second contract 2203 entry 2299 exit, gaining 96 points, profit of 32,000 oil

When the market's direction suddenly changes, and the K-line runs wild like a runaway horse, the most dangerous thing is not the volatility itself, but the stubborn “gambling nature.” There are always those who think they can rely on luck to fight against the trend, trying to reverse the situation with reckless bets. However, they fail to realize that in the face of a sweeping market, personal obstinacy is merely like an ant trying to stop a chariot. Just like a fool trying to block a flood with their hands, they will ultimately be swallowed by the torrent of the trend, and the numbers in their accounts will dissolve into bubbles amidst the market's smoke.
#本周高光时刻 #BTC重返10万 #BTC交易 #BTC #ETH $BTC $ETH

Dear cryptocurrency friends, the upward potential of Bitcoin at 900 points and Ethereum at 80 points has been clearly demonstrated. I wonder how many friends have seized this market opportunity?

Currently, Bitcoin has stabilized around the 103000 mark, and Ethereum is steadily climbing, recently reaching a new high of 2280. Yuanchen reminds everyone that the risk of shorting is extremely high at this moment; a slight misstep could lead to liquidation. The main strategy should still focus on buying on dips, and it is more prudent to wait for the market to stabilize after a correction before positioning for long trades.

Afternoon Suggestions
Bitcoin near 102800, aiming for 104000
Ethereum near 2220-2240, aiming for 2300
#BTC重返10万 #BTC交易 #山寨季何时到来？ #BTC #ETH $ETH $ETH

The big one has finally arrived! Bitcoin has returned to 100,000, and Ethereum has surged over 400 points back above 2,200. Current market sentiment is unprecedentedly high, with a short-term focus on resistance levels above and caution against the risk of pullbacks after a surge.

From a technical perspective, the market shows overall oscillation upwards, with the 4-hour MACD continuously expanding, indicating strong momentum. Although the RSI is overbought with pressure for a pullback, it remains in a strong zone overall. In terms of the market, the 4-hour chart is operating along the upper Bollinger Band, with pullbacks not breaking the upward channel, led by momentum; even though there was a brief counterattack from bears on the 1-hour chart, the Bollinger Band is opening upwards, and the MACD maintains a golden cross above the 0 axis, with the momentum trend unchanged. Therefore, the morning operation focuses on buying the dips in low momentum and monitoring indicator changes.
#BTC重返10万 #BTC交易 #BTC #ETH
$BTC $ETH

5.9 Morning Suggestions
Bitcoin around 102,300-102,800 with a target of 105,000
Ethereum around 2,150-2,180 with a target of 2,280

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reiterated a 'wait and see' policy stance during a press conference in the early hours of May 8, Beijing time, maintaining the federal funds rate in the range of 4.25%-4.5% for the third consecutive time, emphasizing the complex situation of economic resilience coexisting with inflation risks. He stated that although the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policy exceeded expectations, the Federal Reserve would not rush to adjust interest rates but would wait for more data before making decisions. Powell also stressed the independence of the Federal Reserve multiple times, stating that 'the president's call for interest rate cuts will not affect our work' and made it clear that he has never actively sought a meeting with the president.

Regarding the trend of Bitcoin prices, Powell's dovish comments (retaining the possibility of rate cuts) temporarily boosted risk asset sentiment in the short term, leading to a brief surge in Bitcoin after his speech, but it later entered a volatile pattern as the market digested expectations. Analysts generally believe that uncertainty about Federal Reserve policy and concerns over Trump's trade policies will continue to dominate short-term fluctuations, and Bitcoin may maintain high volatility.

In the medium to long term, the trend of Bitcoin will depend on multiple factors:

1. Macroeconomic environment: If the Federal Reserve initiates interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, liquidity easing may favor risk assets such as Bitcoin; however, if inflation rebounds and forces the Federal Reserve to maintain high rates, it could suppress market risk appetite.
2. Regulatory policies: Although the 'strategic Bitcoin reserve' plan promoted by the Trump administration has not led to large-scale accumulation, local governments such as New Hampshire have begun to allocate Bitcoin, which may gradually change the market supply and demand structure. Institutions like Standard Chartered Bank predict that by the end of 2025, Bitcoin could hit $200,000, but there is a need to be wary of risks from sudden policy changes.
3. Technical factors and capital flows: Currently, the Bitcoin derivatives market has over $2.8 billion betting on an upward trend, and the TD Sequential indicator shows buy signals, but on-chain data indicates selling pressure near the cost bottom of short-term holders, requiring attention to the sustainability of capital inflows.

Overall, Bitcoin may maintain volatility in the short term, while in the medium to long term, it still has upward potential under favorable policies and institutional entry, but close attention should be paid to Federal Reserve policy direction, tariff negotiation progress, and key technical level breakthroughs. Investors should remain cautious and flexibly adjust strategies in conjunction with support and resistance levels.
#美联储FOMC会议

【Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision Outlook: Focus on Powell's June Rate Cut Signal】
Tonight (May 8th) at 2 AM, the Federal Reserve will announce the May interest rate decision, with the market generally expecting the rate to remain unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%. The focus is on Powell's statements regarding the expectations for a rate cut in June.

The market has already priced in the “no rate cut” for May, and recent fluctuations in the dollar, gold, and U.S. stocks have partially reflected this expectation. The key logic is: if rates are maintained in May, the rate cut window in the second half of the year may be concentrated in June, September, and December. Analysts point out that even if there is no rate cut in the short term, if Powell conveys a “data-dependent” dovish signal, it may prompt the market to price in the expectations for rate cuts in the second half of the year ahead of time, which may not necessarily be negative.

If the Federal Reserve executes three rate cuts in the second half of the year (totaling 75 basis points), the improvement in dollar liquidity will attract hot money back to risk assets. The current market disagreement lies in the timing of the rate cuts: the CME shows a 34% probability of a rate cut in June, and institutions are divided over whether to “start in June” or “act after July.”

After tonight's decision, the market focus will shift to Powell's description of the “rate cut threshold” — whether to pay more attention to falling inflation or economic risks, which will determine asset allocation direction. With the May event concluded, expectations for rate cuts in the second half of the year may become the main trading line in the market.
#美联储FOMC会议 #Pectra升级 #美国稳定币法案 $BTC $ETH

After the strong upward trend in the early session ended, the market entered a consolidation and correction phase. Bitcoin and Ethereum have both started a downward trend as expected, and a certain amount of downward space has been released, but the ideal target point has not yet been reached. It is advised that patient cryptocurrency enthusiasts can continue to hold short positions and wait for a better profit-taking opportunity.
#美联储FOMC会议 #Strategy增持比特币 #美国稳定币法案 $BTC $ETH

Today's early market shows a strong upward trend, with bullish momentum dominating. Bitcoin's price has quickly climbed back above 97,000. However, it should be noted that although the market has performed strongly in the short term, it has not yet effectively broken through the key resistance level at 98,000.

From a technical analysis perspective, the daily level shows the market has been experiencing continuous small gains, with the middle band of the Bollinger Bands providing strong support, akin to a pillar supporting the price trend; on the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands channel is gradually narrowing, indicating that the market may enter a range-bound phase in the short term. It is worth noting that the current rebound strength has shown signs of weakening; such rapid surges in the market often come quickly and leave just as fast. If the price cannot break through and refresh the previous high, it is likely to enter a range-bound correction.

Investors are reminded to stay calm and not to chase high prices impulsively due to short-term increases. In terms of operational strategy, it is still recommended to focus on short positions, and be sure to set stop-loss orders to avoid holding onto losing positions. Pay close attention to the resistance at the 98,000 level; if the rebound cannot break through this position, the price may likely fall back again, so be cautious of the risks from chasing price increases and selling on dips.

Morning Suggestions
Bitcoin 97,500-98,000 range, look down to 95,000
Ethereum 1,850-1,870 range, look down to 1,770
#美联储FOMC会议 #Strategy增持比特币 #比特币战略储备 $BTC $ETH

5.7 Midnight Thoughts
From the market analysis, Bitcoin currently presents an overall oscillating pattern. On the daily level, after the 'pin bar', although the bulls have regained some ground, the contraction of the Bollinger Bands indicates oscillatory characteristics. The price is between the middle and upper bands, with a clear dead cross formed by MA5/MA10 creating significant resistance. The bearish volume of MACD has somewhat decreased, and the three lines of KDJ are clustered around 50, with both bulls and bears in a stalemate, making the trend currently unclear. The candlestick shows signs of potentially closing in the red again, and short-term attention should be focused on the continuation of bearish strength around midnight.

On the four-hour level, the market maintains a narrow oscillation, with the price fluctuating between the middle and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands. The bulls and bears are evenly matched, and this stalemate has persisted for a long time without a clear one-sided direction. Although there was a rebound in the morning, it failed to effectively hold the gains, and the overall trend has shifted to a weak adjustment rhythm for the day, only slightly recovering some ground in the evening, with the short-term trend leaning towards weakness and the rebound momentum gradually diminishing. Currently, the price has rebounded to the upper level of the downward channel (around 95000), failing to break through the upper band resistance. This is a critical juncture for the highs, and if it faces pressure and falls back, it may continue the downtrend; if it breaks through the upper band, then strategy adjustments are necessary.

In summary, the operation should still focus on the rebound highs, paying close attention to the resistance effects at the downward channel, while maintaining stop losses and avoiding holding losing positions.
#美联储FOMC会议 #美国众议院市场结构讨论草案 $BTC $ETH

Operating Suggestions
Bitcoin 95000-95300 nearby high, looking down at 93000
Altcoin 1800-1830 nearby high, looking down at 1760

The empty mentioned in the morning has been sideways all day, only falling down in the evening. The second token has a full 50-point space, and the first token has over a thousand points of decline for everyone to take a bite of. I wonder if all the cryptocurrency friends managed to catch this small wave of decline today.
#美国众议院市场结构讨论草案 #美联储FOMC会议 $BTC $ETH

From the four-hour technical structure perspective, the current market is still operating within a downward trend framework. The short-term trend has formed a step-like descending pattern, with prices quickly dropping from the mid-band area to near the lower band of the Bollinger Bands. Although the current price has touched the lower support band, there is still no clear signal for a stop-loss and stabilization based on the market performance. The continuation of the slow downward trend reflects that the support level's holding strength remains weak, and the bearish momentum in the market has not been effectively released.

Based on the above technical characteristics, the operational strategy suggests maintaining a high short view during rebounds. It is necessary to closely monitor changes in volume during the rebound process and the suppression effect in the mid-band area. Without clear reversal signals, it is not advisable to blindly enter long positions, and the focus should still be on capturing high short opportunities. Strict stop-loss settings are required in trading to guard against unexpected rebound risks, while paying close attention to the subsequent testing strength of the price against the lower support and whether a stabilization pattern can be formed.

Morning Suggestions
Bitcoin around 95000, look for 93000 below
Ethereum around 1830, look for 1780 below
#美联储FOMC会议 #比特币战略储备 $BTC $ETH

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's daily chart has closed in the red for two consecutive days, completely retracing the previous gains. The price has fallen back into the prior consolidation range and is under pressure from the moving average system, showing a bearish trend in the short term.
On the four-hour level, the Bollinger Bands are expanding downwards, with the price weakly adjusting. After a MACD double line death cross, it continues to decline close to the zero axis, with bearish volume bars continuously increasing. Additionally, the price has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, accompanied by a surge in trading volume, which may indicate a concentrated release of bearish power.
Currently, it is crucial to closely monitor the effectiveness of the support at the lower edge of the previous range, as well as whether the lower Bollinger Band continues to tilt downwards and if the MACD histogram's negative value continues to extend. If both occur simultaneously, it indicates that the downtrend may enter a "main down wave" phase. The operational strategy should maintain a trend-following rebound mindset, and investors need to respond cautiously.

Morning Suggestions
Bitcoin 94800-95300 range, look down to 93000; if it breaks, continue looking down to 92000
Ethereum 1800-1830 range, look down to 1730
$BTC $ETH #加密市场回调 #非农就业数据来袭 #比特币战略储备

Early morning market surged and then fell back, with prices dipping to around 93600 and 1780. Overall volatility is limited, and both bulls and bears show weak continuity. However, investors who have grasped the rhythm recently have still gained significant space. The overall trend of the current market remains strong, but caution is needed for potential reversal risks—there is pressure above and support below, making trend reversal signals worthy of close attention. On the daily chart, prices are showing a pattern of alternating small bearish and bullish candles.

From a short-term perspective, the 7-day and 10-day moving averages on the daily chart have slowly turned downward, indicating a weakening trend signal. However, the key resistance levels are still at 1860 and 96000. If these levels are effectively broken, the trend may continue. Bitcoin's K-line has been oscillating narrowly around 95000 and 1800 recently, forming a consolidation pattern. In terms of technical indicators, although the MACD is in the negative zone, the dual lines are gradually converging, which may indicate a possibility of a rebound in the short term or a change in the trend.

Today's Recommendations
Bitcoin: Enter near 95000, target 93000
Ethereum: Enter near 1840, target 1740
#SEC推迟多个现货ETF审批 #特朗普就职百日 #币安Alpha上新 $BTC $ETH