元宸日记

June 23 Crypto Market Morning Review:

Bitcoin maintained a volatile pattern in the range of 103300-102000 yesterday, during which short positions continued to increase. After dipping to around 98000 in the early morning, it rebounded sharply to the 10988 position, recovering most of the losses in the short term. Ethereum briefly surged to around 2310 during the day, then fell back to around 2155 for consolidation.

Currently, geopolitical risks in the Middle East are rising, prompting investors to sell off and causing a broad decline in the cryptocurrency market. Data shows that the liquidation scale across the network has surged in the past 24 hours. From a technical perspective: the daily line has formed a clear downtrend with consecutive bearish candles; yesterday's candlestick showed a long upper shadow indicating a strong bearish control; the hourly chart is consolidating around 99000, in a weak low-position adjustment; short-term rebounds are facing resistance, and bullish momentum is lacking. The current recovery is a correction of the bearish trend and has not reversed; the suggestion for daily operations is to primarily focus on short positions.

Morning Suggestions
Bitcoin 101800-102200 range, target down to around 99200
Ethereum 2270-2300 range, target down to around 2170
#以色列伊朗冲突 #特朗普施压鲍威尔 #加密市场回调 $BTC $ETH

Morning Thoughts
Currently, the BTC price is fluctuating around the 104500 mark, with bearish sentiment dominating the market in the short term. From a technical perspective, the price continues to be under pressure from the EMA10 moving average, and the short-term bearish trend remains unchanged. However, under the 4-hour MACD death cross pattern, the bearish momentum bars have significantly contracted, indicating a weakening of bearish power; at the same time, the RSI indicator has reached the 30 oversold zone, enhancing the demand for technical recovery.

Key support at 103300 remains stable. If the resistance level of 105500 is broken, there is potential to establish a short-term bottoming structure. The strategy for Wednesday's morning trading focuses on low-position buying opportunities, with a key emphasis on adjusting positions based on breakthrough situations at critical points. Market sentiment is cautious, and operations need to closely monitor volume coordination!

Operational advice focuses on buying on retracement
Big Cake 104000-104500 look up to 105500
Auntie 2480-2500 look up to 2550
#美联储FOMC会议 #Metaplanet增持比特币 #以色列伊朗冲突

#Bitcoin Ethereum Market Update#
This morning, BTC and ETH showed divergence! Bitcoin surged to 108,865 before plummeting to 106,079, rebounding at 106,500; Ethereum experienced a pullback in the early hours before a strong rally of nearly a hundred points, perfectly hitting the rhythm!

The technical indicators are extremely strong✨, with the 4-hour chart KDJ and MACD oscillating upward, MA5 and MA10 moving averages continually rising, RSI oscillating at high levels, and volume (VOL) simultaneously increasing. ETH has triggered a green TD2 upward signal, stabilizing above the middle Bollinger band! The Bollinger channel is continuously expanding, and larger volatility may be on the way!

Combining the daily candlestick and short-term trends, there is a high probability of continued oscillation upwards within the day, with a key focus on the strong resistance level of ETH at 2660 USD! Evening trading suggestions are to primarily go long at lower levels, seizing the opportunity to position at low points, as the market is heating up, don’t miss out!

Evening Suggestions
Bitcoin 105000-105500 bullish looking up to 108000
Ethereum 2530-2550 bullish looking up to 2650
#美联储FOMC会议 #Solana现货ETF竞赛 #加密市场反弹 $BTC $ETH

The morning strategy accurately hit the direction, and the long position is steadily profitable in the position~ Trading is like sailing; only by identifying the trend and adhering to the strategy can one break the waves. Continue to maintain the rhythm; your profit ship is sailing forward!
#Solana现货ETF竞赛 #币安HODLer空投SPK #Metaplanet增持比特币 #以色列伊朗冲突
$BTC $ETH

After Bitcoin surged and then retraced yesterday, it briefly dipped this morning but quickly stabilized. The $107,000 support level shows strong buying interest—an "engulfing" pattern formed on the four-hour chart, with volume shrinking by 37% during the pullback, indicating a decrease in selling pressure. The lower Bollinger Band support on the hourly chart is effective, with the price rebounding above the middle band. The MACD green bars are shortening and are about to form a golden cross, strengthening short-term bullish signals.

The bullish fundamentals are gradually materializing: against the backdrop of escalating conflicts in the Middle East, the market is re-recognizing Bitcoin's safe-haven attributes. Grayscale BTC Trust saw a net inflow of $230 million in a single day, reaching a nearly one-month high. On-chain data shows that the proportion of holdings by long-term holders has risen to 68.2%. There are signs of accumulation by whale addresses in the $105,000-$108,000 range, with 72% of large transfers over 2,000 BTC being in the buying direction. Although the shadow of Mt. Gox's selling pressure still lingers, on-chain monitoring indicates that 63% of the 12,000 BTC transferred in the past three days entered exchange cold wallets, suggesting that actual selling pressure may be overestimated.

Trading Recommendations
Bitcoin: 106500-107000 expect upward movement to 108500
Ethereum: 2560-2580 expect upward movement to 2650
#Metaplanet增持比特币 #特朗普比特币金库 #以色列伊朗冲突 #卡尔达诺稳定币提案 $BTC $ETH

Bitcoin experienced a violent rebound after a dip in the early morning today, with a long lower shadow on the daily chart and significantly increased trading volume, seemingly indicating strong bullish momentum. However, when the price rebounded to the resistance level of $106,700, it faced resistance and fell back, and the bearish pressure has not changed—the net outflow of major funds reached $470 million in a single day, and large sell orders continue to suppress the price. The technical indicators show a 'Shooting Star' pattern, the KDJ indicator has formed a dead cross at a high position, and with the MVRV of short-term holders still in the high-risk zone at 1.13, profit-taking pressure may trigger a secondary sell-off at any time.

The key support level of $102,000 is facing triple tests: first, on-chain data shows that the cost of short-term holders is concentrated around $97,000; if it falls below $102,000, it may trigger programmed stop-losses; second, although the situation in the Middle East has temporarily eased due to Trump's remarks, the countdown has begun for nearly $9 billion of selling pressure from Mt. Gox, with the transfer of 12,000 BTC having alerted the market; third, the Bitcoin sentiment index has fallen to the bearish zone at 46.1%, and the OBV indicator has failed to effectively break above -80K, with the divergence between volume and price suggesting that the rebound momentum is exhausted.

Layout suggestions:
Bitcoin: $106,700-$107,200 range, looking down to $105,000
Ethereum: $2,620-$2,640 range, looking down to $2,570
#以色列伊朗冲突 #加密市场反弹 #Metaplanet增持比特币 $BTC $ETH

June 16 Morning Analysis
Yesterday, the market for Bitcoin fluctuated, peaking at 106,000 before coming under pressure and falling back to 104,800. It briefly rebounded to 105,800 and entered a consolidation phase, then tested a low of 104,400 in the early morning. The altcoin trend was similar to the main market, with 2,560 encountering resistance and dropping to 2,490, followed by a V-shaped reversal, currently stabilizing above 2,545, indicating that bulls still have the momentum to fight back.

From a technical perspective, the four-hour chart of Bitcoin shows a sideways movement at a low level, with the Bollinger Bands continuing to tighten, and K-line being suppressed by the middle track, with moving averages in a bearish arrangement. If the price cannot effectively break through the key level of 106,300, the bearish trend may continue. On the hourly level, the tightening of the Bollinger Bands is more apparent, market fluctuations are narrowing, trading volume is shrinking, and buying and selling sentiment is cautious. The current market is still in a stage of consolidation, waiting for a directional breakthrough.

Morning Suggestions
Bitcoin 105,800-106,000 range Looking down at 104,000
Altcoin 2,550-2,580 range Looking down at 2,480
#MichaelSaylor暗示增持BTC #特朗普比特币金库 #以色列伊朗冲突 #卡尔达诺稳定币提案

BTC daily closing price effectively broke through key support levels, and the volume-price relationship shows that the rate of decline has significantly accelerated. This round of retreat has provided a clear continuation signal through technical patterns. The intraday trading strategy focuses on shorting during rebounds; if the price further breaks below the 100,000 round number, it may trigger programmatic selling, initiating a secondary bearish trend.

From a technical perspective, BTC's hourly price has broken below the lower Bollinger Band, the MACD green bars continue to expand, and the RSI indicator has fallen below the 30 oversold range and is still extending downward, indicating that short-term bearish momentum has not yet exhausted, and there is still room for decline. ETH shows a similar weak pattern, with a nearly 300-point decline prompting all technical indicators to weaken comprehensively. Attention should be paid to whether the KDJ indicator shows signs of oversold rebounds, but the overall theme remains shorting during rebounds.

Operational suggestions:
BTC 104000-104500 range, look down to 103000
ETH 2520-2550 range, look down to 2450
#币安Alpha理财中心 #加密圆桌讨论 #美国加征关税

Bitcoin has fallen below the key support level of $107,000, with a bearish pattern dominating in the technical analysis. The current MACD indicator continues to release bearish momentum, and the RSI indicator has dropped below 50 and entered the weak zone. Additionally, there was a net outflow of over $5.74 million in main funds in a single day, significantly increasing selling pressure in the market.

It is worth noting that a large market sell order of $2.32 million that appeared in the early morning directly suppressed the price, while the positive news of a $900 million net inflow into Bitcoin ETFs this week failed to offset the selling pressure, indicating weak short-term market sentiment.

Operational Suggestions
Bitcoin $107,000-$107,500 range, looking down to $105,000.
Ethereum $2,740-$2,760 range, looking down to $2,660.
$BTC $ETH #币安HODLer空投HOME #币安HODLer空投RESOLV #山寨币ETF展望

Noon Big Pie, Auntie suddenly experiences a small waterfall, Big Pie dips to $107,300, Auntie rebounds after touching $2,745, currently fluctuating at $107,700/$2,760.

From a technical perspective, the lower Bollinger Band of Big Pie at $107,200 forms strong support, with a long lower shadow confirming a bottom signal, RSI rising from 35 to 42; Auntie stabilizes at the support level of the mid-band at $2,740, and the shortening green bars in MACD indicate a weakening of the bears.

Maintain the morning's bullish strategy, suggesting to buy Big Pie in batches between $107,500-$107,800, with a stop loss at $106,800 and a target of $109,500; for Auntie, focus on buying after stabilization at $2,750, and look for a breakthrough at the resistance level of $2,820. If volume rises, it can strengthen the rebound momentum.
#看懂K线 #山寨币ETF展望 #BTC #ETH
$BTC $ETH

《Midnight Cryptocurrency Slightly Rebounds After Pullback, Bitcoin and Ethereum Consolidate》

Bitcoin continued its pullback during the midnight hours, with prices dipping to around $108,000 before stabilizing and then rebounding to around $108,500. The 4-hour K-line shows that BTC has formed a long lower shadow at the support level of the lower Bollinger Band, and the RSI indicator has rebounded from the oversold zone to 40. Short-term bearish momentum has eased somewhat, but trading volume has shrunk by 18% year-on-year, and the rebound strength remains mild.

Ethereum has also pulled back, retreating from the daily high of 2880 to hover around the 2750 range, with the 2740 middle Bollinger Band forming effective support. The MACD green bars have not yet expanded, indicating that the adjustment still falls within the technical repair category.

The current market is in a digestion period after the data release, and attention should be paid to the breakout of resistance levels at 110,000 (BTC) and 2800 (ETH), as the volume will determine the short-term direction.

Morning Recommendations
Bitcoin 107800-108300 bullish Target 110000
Ethereum 2730-2760 bullish Target 2850
#看懂K线 #CPI数据来袭 #以太坊生态回暖 $BTC $ETH

#CPI Data Under Pressure, Greed Signals Emerge in the Cryptocurrency Market!#

CPI data hides concerns over interest rate hikes, cryptocurrency market sentiment is running high.
Tonight at 20:30, the U.S. May CPI data will be revealed, with the market widely expecting a year-over-year growth rate to rise to 2.4%. The tariff transmission effect and rebound in energy prices may push inflation higher. If the data exceeds expectations, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations will be further delayed, which may suppress high-risk assets. Currently, the price of Bitcoin is fluctuating near the $110,000 mark, with the middle band of the Bollinger Bands at $105,000 acting as key support, while the Fear and Greed Index has fallen from previous highs to 65 (in the greed zone), but market sentiment remains exuberant.

The Greed Index Warns of Risks, Market Sentiment and Technical Interplay Intensifies
Recently, the cryptocurrency market has exhibited characteristics of “high volatility + high leverage”: liquidation amounts in 24 hours reached $320 million, with BTC and ETH accounting for over half, while Meme coins like LABUBU saw daily market values soar over 125%, reflecting the restlessness of speculative funds. From a technical perspective, although Bitcoin has broken through the short-term downward trend, the KDJ indicator is oscillating in the overbought range and showing signs of divergence between volume and price. It is noteworthy that the valuation of compliant financial infrastructure companies like Circle has surged to $24 billion, indicating that institutional funds are accelerating their layout, but the siphoning effect of U.S. stock cryptocurrency concept stocks may divert market liquidity.

Strategic Recommendations: Beware of Data Impact, Focus on Bull-Bear Watershed
On the eve of the CPI data release, investors are advised to:

1. Control Positions: If Bitcoin falls below the key support of $105,000, it may trigger technical sell-offs, and risks of a correction should be guarded against;
2. Pay Attention to Policy Expectations: If CPI data reinforces the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, consider moderately allocating stablecoins like USDT to hedge against volatility;
3. Seize Structural Opportunities: Ethereum's implied volatility has broken through 70%, and the options market is filled with bullish sentiment, so watch for opportunities to break the resistance level of $2800.

Stay alert when the market is greedy, and going with the trend is essential to navigate through cycles. Tonight's CPI data will be a key litmus test; are you ready?
#比特币 #CPI数据来袭 #以太坊ETF批准预期
$BTC $ETH

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's 1-hour candlestick chart is showing a fluctuating downward trend. The price faced pressure and retreated after touching the upper Bollinger Band, and is currently operating above the middle band, indicating a clear short-term downward trend. Meanwhile, the KDJ indicator's three lines are diverging downward in unison, and there is a phenomenon of fluctuation and dullness in the overbought zone (values above 80), indicating that bullish momentum continues to weaken while bearish forces are accelerating their accumulation.

From the perspective of volume coordination, this retracement is accompanied by a moderate increase in trading volume, reflecting a rising sentiment of profit-taking in the market, and the market is facing a strong demand for technical correction. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands serves as a short-term dividing line between bulls and bears; if the price effectively breaks below this level, it may further open up downward space; conversely, if the middle band provides effective support, a brief rebound may occur for correction.

Overall, a short-term bearish dominant pattern has been established, and attention should be paid to the volume and price performance at key support levels.

Morning Suggestions
Bitcoin 109800-110300, looking down at 107000
Ethereum 2790-2810, looking down at 2730
#看懂K线 #以太坊生态回暖 #加密市场反弹 $BTC $ETH

The four-hour K-line for Bitcoin shows that the price has been continuously moving upward along the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, breaking through the upper band to create a new peak for this phase. Although there has been a pullback, it is still stabilizing above the upper band, maintaining a strong bullish pattern.

Previously, Bitcoin had long-term oscillations to build a base, and after breaking through with a large bullish candlestick, it entered a composite pattern of 'breakout rally + high-level consolidation.' The current pullback is a normal technical correction. If it can find support at the middle band of the Bollinger Bands or at key support levels, there is hope for the upward trend to continue; if it falls below the middle band, it may initiate a phase of adjustment. In a one-sided upward market, it is recommended that investors follow the trend and avoid trading against it.

Afternoon Suggestions
Bitcoin: 108500-109000, target at 110000
Ethereum: 2660-2640, target at 2730
#看懂K线 #加密市场反弹 #比特币走势观察 $BTC $ETH

Non-farm payroll data has been released, and overall it is bearish, you can enter the market now, everyone.

Looking at 98,000 for Bitcoin, looking at 2380 for Ethereum
#特朗普马斯克分歧 #非农就业数据 $BTC $ETH

Midnight data invasion, Bitcoin hits a new low again, rebounding slightly after probing the 100300 line, but the rebound is minimal and unable to reverse the downward trend.

Three consecutive daily bearish candles, short-term moving averages are in a bearish arrangement, and the mid-term upward trend has been completely broken. The four-hour Bollinger Bands are opening downward, the lower support has been broken, bearish volume is extreme, and the volume bars indicate that bearish momentum continues to be released, with clear intentions from the main players and a bearish market sentiment.

In the early session, one can try to short lightly based on rebound highs, capturing opportunities for the continuation of the bearish trend.

Bitcoin 102000-102500 support below 100000
Ethereum 2430-2450 support below 2380
#我的COS交易 #特朗普马斯克分歧 #加密市场回调 $BTC $ETH

The trading ideas shared yesterday have been fully validated by the market:

During the day, a bearish outlook was based on technical resistance structures, and the market experienced a pullback after being pressured at key resistance levels, precisely touching the support level of 104000 points. During this period, the volume-price relationship exhibited typical characteristics of bearish release; in the evening, the shift to a bullish outlook was signaled by the hourly chart's stop-loss signals, and the market quickly rebounded with the influx of capital, recovering the intraday losses while validating the logic of the transition between bulls and bears.

From identifying resistance levels to capturing support levels, and then to switching between bullish and bearish rhythms, the entire analytical chain perfectly aligns with the market dynamics, fully demonstrating the precise grasp of market rhythms and the effectiveness of logical deduction.

Every accurate prediction is a reflection of deep cultivation; trading is never a game of luck. Build a lighthouse with logic, anchor direction with discipline, and cultivate patience amid the fluctuations of rises and falls; you will eventually see the seeds of effort you have sown growing into the expected form in the market.
#中心化与去中心化交易所 #交易类型入门 #加密市场反弹 $BTC $ETH

Large pancake 103994 entry 105997 exit gained 2004 points profit
14k oil
Auntie 2497 entry 2630 exit gained 43 points profit 39k oil

Powell's speech in the early morning seems to provide support, last night's long positions soared with the wind. All gains are not coincidental; they are the result of deep market cultivation, seizing opportunities with keen insight and winning trends with courage. On the path of trading, preparation and courage are both essential.

#加密市场反弹 #我的COS交易 $BTC $ETH