冰火岛
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【9.6 Ice and Fire Island Strategy: Data dominates market sentiment, will non-farm payrolls lead to a weekend market crash? 】
Last night, recession expectations rose again, and analysts believe that the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 45%.
The ADP employment data, known as the "small non-farm payrolls", unexpectedly fell to 99,000, a three-and-a-half-year low, showing a sharp slowdown in the labor market. Tonight, the August non-farm payrolls data will affect the market and will have a huge impact on the September rate cut.
On the other hand, the US ISM service industry index in August has expanded moderately for two consecutive months, and the final value of the Markit service industry PMI is the highest in nearly two and a half years, and recession concerns have been dispelled.
The data-dominated market sentiment model of the US economy has gone a bit crazy. Once the subsequent data gets out of control, the Federal Reserve and even the entire US market may be backfired by the data.
However, there is still good news in China. On the one hand, the RMB exchange rate has risen, which will push up the A-share market index; on the other hand, Guotai Junan merged with Haitong, and the brokerage firm's big move indicates a rebound in the stock market.
How should cryptocurrency traders choose at the crossroads where US stocks are falling and A-shares are expected to rise? Obviously, the trend of Bitcoin has clearly followed the trend of US technology stocks.
In the next month, it is very necessary to prepare for a correction or even a plunge and take insurance measures.
Tonight's non-agricultural data is the first test.
Suggestions:
Ambush the double buy strategy half an hour in advance and bet on gamma riots and volatility surges.
After the data is released, monitor the opening trend of US stocks. If the stock trend is not good, stop loss and exit in advance. If there is a large fluctuation in US stocks, you can hold the position overnight and bet on the simultaneous plunge or surge of Bitcoin.
The seller recommends that you can clear the position in advance and re-establish the position on the weekend according to the change in volatility. September is a month to test patience and technology. The decline is not terrible. As long as you master the rhythm of volatility changes, the double sell strategy can still be profitable.
For more details, please join Binghuo Island to communicate.
#冰火岛 #张无忌wepoets
Last night, recession expectations rose again, and analysts believe that the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 45%.
The ADP employment data, known as the "small non-farm payrolls", unexpectedly fell to 99,000, a three-and-a-half-year low, showing a sharp slowdown in the labor market. Tonight, the August non-farm payrolls data will affect the market and will have a huge impact on the September rate cut.
On the other hand, the US ISM service industry index in August has expanded moderately for two consecutive months, and the final value of the Markit service industry PMI is the highest in nearly two and a half years, and recession concerns have been dispelled.
The data-dominated market sentiment model of the US economy has gone a bit crazy. Once the subsequent data gets out of control, the Federal Reserve and even the entire US market may be backfired by the data.
However, there is still good news in China. On the one hand, the RMB exchange rate has risen, which will push up the A-share market index; on the other hand, Guotai Junan merged with Haitong, and the brokerage firm's big move indicates a rebound in the stock market.
How should cryptocurrency traders choose at the crossroads where US stocks are falling and A-shares are expected to rise? Obviously, the trend of Bitcoin has clearly followed the trend of US technology stocks.
In the next month, it is very necessary to prepare for a correction or even a plunge and take insurance measures.
Tonight's non-agricultural data is the first test.
Suggestions:
Ambush the double buy strategy half an hour in advance and bet on gamma riots and volatility surges.
After the data is released, monitor the opening trend of US stocks. If the stock trend is not good, stop loss and exit in advance. If there is a large fluctuation in US stocks, you can hold the position overnight and bet on the simultaneous plunge or surge of Bitcoin.
The seller recommends that you can clear the position in advance and re-establish the position on the weekend according to the change in volatility. September is a month to test patience and technology. The decline is not terrible. As long as you master the rhythm of volatility changes, the double sell strategy can still be profitable.
For more details, please join Binghuo Island to communicate.
#冰火岛 #张无忌wepoets
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[Sharing of hedging strategies on the weekend of August 3, non-agricultural data triggered recession concerns, and the US stock market brought down the cryptocurrency market. Will it continue to fall further in the future? ]
Recently, I have been reminding you of the black swan risk. I wonder if any island friends have bought insurance and recovered some losses last night.
Last night, the number of new non-agricultural jobs in the United States in July was far below expectations and the previous value, and the unemployment rate was the highest in nearly three years. Recession concerns caused the market to plummet and US bonds to soar.
The number of non-agricultural jobs in July dropped sharply from the previous value of 179,000 to 114,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level in three years, and triggered the recession indicator Sam's rule. Affected by this, the three major US stock indexes led the decline, and the "fear index" VIX hit the highest level since March last year, up more than 59%.
At present, analysts believe that there is no suspense about the interest rate cut in September. The key is how much it can be cut? If it is less than 100 basis points, it will probably be a drop in the bucket and it will be difficult to curb the recession.
The US recession will bring down the US stock market and the world economy, and the huge risks will make the market silent.
On the other hand, in the cryptocurrency circle, the big cake and the concubine followed the decline, and the amplitude was large. The implied volatility of the two rebounded from the bottom. The recent volatility has risen particularly fast, and the left side of the volatility tilt curve has risen. It seems that everyone's bets on the decline have increased.
In the next few days, the probability of a continued deep retracement is very high. It is recommended to take insurance to prevent tail risks.
At the same time, the upward trend of volatility is also conducive to the implementation of the seller's short volatility strategy at highs.
When it fell, there was also good news. Trump said in an interview on Friday that it is recommended to use cryptocurrency to solve the US debt problem, suggesting that the United States accepts Bitcoin to help solve the US debt of 35 trillion US dollars.
In this way, Bitcoin's future prospects are still bright, and in order to take on the great responsibility, it has to continue to rise.
Therefore, the forward ambush rise is still the main theme of option traders.
Welcome to join the Ice and Fire Island to communicate.
#冰火岛
Recently, I have been reminding you of the black swan risk. I wonder if any island friends have bought insurance and recovered some losses last night.
Last night, the number of new non-agricultural jobs in the United States in July was far below expectations and the previous value, and the unemployment rate was the highest in nearly three years. Recession concerns caused the market to plummet and US bonds to soar.
The number of non-agricultural jobs in July dropped sharply from the previous value of 179,000 to 114,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level in three years, and triggered the recession indicator Sam's rule. Affected by this, the three major US stock indexes led the decline, and the "fear index" VIX hit the highest level since March last year, up more than 59%.
At present, analysts believe that there is no suspense about the interest rate cut in September. The key is how much it can be cut? If it is less than 100 basis points, it will probably be a drop in the bucket and it will be difficult to curb the recession.
The US recession will bring down the US stock market and the world economy, and the huge risks will make the market silent.
On the other hand, in the cryptocurrency circle, the big cake and the concubine followed the decline, and the amplitude was large. The implied volatility of the two rebounded from the bottom. The recent volatility has risen particularly fast, and the left side of the volatility tilt curve has risen. It seems that everyone's bets on the decline have increased.
In the next few days, the probability of a continued deep retracement is very high. It is recommended to take insurance to prevent tail risks.
At the same time, the upward trend of volatility is also conducive to the implementation of the seller's short volatility strategy at highs.
When it fell, there was also good news. Trump said in an interview on Friday that it is recommended to use cryptocurrency to solve the US debt problem, suggesting that the United States accepts Bitcoin to help solve the US debt of 35 trillion US dollars.
In this way, Bitcoin's future prospects are still bright, and in order to take on the great responsibility, it has to continue to rise.
Therefore, the forward ambush rise is still the main theme of option traders.
Welcome to join the Ice and Fire Island to communicate.
#冰火岛
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Is this a huge negative for BNB?
According to Bloomberg, people familiar with the matter revealed that the US Department of Justice (DOJ) has selected consulting firm Forensic Risk Alliance (FRA) as Binance's external regulator.
As a supervisory agency, FRA will be responsible for ensuring that Binance complies with the plea agreement. FRA will gain access to the company's internal records, facilities and employees and report the company's activities to the government.
This means that users from all over the world will no longer have privacy in front of the US Department of Justice. It's too outrageous.
It will probably trigger a mass exodus.
I hope CZ can counter after he is released from prison.
#冰火岛 $BTC $BNB
According to Bloomberg, people familiar with the matter revealed that the US Department of Justice (DOJ) has selected consulting firm Forensic Risk Alliance (FRA) as Binance's external regulator.
As a supervisory agency, FRA will be responsible for ensuring that Binance complies with the plea agreement. FRA will gain access to the company's internal records, facilities and employees and report the company's activities to the government.
This means that users from all over the world will no longer have privacy in front of the US Department of Justice. It's too outrageous.
It will probably trigger a mass exodus.
I hope CZ can counter after he is released from prison.
#冰火岛 $BTC $BNB
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[6.19 hedging strategy sharing, Nasdaq rose for seven consecutive days, Blackstone submitted S1 documents, can the cryptocurrency market stop falling and rebound? ]
Don’t be afraid of skyrocketing or plummeting, just be afraid of no rise or fall. The market is not a stagnant pool of water, but a stormy sea. The US stock market is sunny, but the cryptocurrency market is covered with dark clouds.
Fortunately, Blackstone submitted the S1 document of the Auntie ETF, which can be regarded as a ray of sunshine. This morning, the dark green turned light red, and the cryptocurrency market has a trend of stopping falling.
Can it rebound? Specific analysis is needed.
The rise and fall of the big cake is affected by the net inflow and net outflow of the ETF, but it has stabilized overall.
The performance of the global ETP of the auntie is better than that of the big cake, which shows that capital is betting on the surge of the US auntie ETF. Blackstone takes the lead, and it is estimated that the listing time is not far away. The July 2nd rumored on the Internet can be expected.
In terms of altcoins, the EVM system has been affected by the auntie and performed well. ENS is particularly eye-catching and has entered a clear upward channel. Comprehensive analysis shows that the only benefit of ENS from the auntie is the price trend expectation. In terms of earning power, ens is still a project with a concept greater than reality.
Therefore, for this week's hedging strategy, it is recommended that BTC can continue to be covered, and MYT can be partially covered, leaving some exposure for chasing the rise.
For safe chasing, the bull market put spread strategy is recommended. Sell out-of-the-money (at-the-money) put + buy deep out-of-the-money put. As long as the price of MYT falls slightly, does not rise, rises slightly, or rises, the strategy will be profitable. If it plummets in time, the loss of the strategy will be limited.
For pairs trade, continue to pay attention to the hedging of sol and other baskets of tokens. Yesterday's plummeting prompted everyone to close half of their positions with profits, and today they can reopen positions based on the rising trend. For island friends who did not have a bottom position before, it is recommended to wait and see, wait for the trend of the altcoin to touch the upper Bollinger track of the four-hour before hedging and shorting.
Going long ETH and shorting altcoins is a good choice. The position ratio is 2:1 or 1:1.
Going long sol and shorting matic can be entered in batches with a light position at present, and the logic is to be optimistic about the growth of sol.
Welcome to join the Ice and Fire Island to communicate. #对冲交易 #冰火岛 $SOL $ETH $BTC
Don’t be afraid of skyrocketing or plummeting, just be afraid of no rise or fall. The market is not a stagnant pool of water, but a stormy sea. The US stock market is sunny, but the cryptocurrency market is covered with dark clouds.
Fortunately, Blackstone submitted the S1 document of the Auntie ETF, which can be regarded as a ray of sunshine. This morning, the dark green turned light red, and the cryptocurrency market has a trend of stopping falling.
Can it rebound? Specific analysis is needed.
The rise and fall of the big cake is affected by the net inflow and net outflow of the ETF, but it has stabilized overall.
The performance of the global ETP of the auntie is better than that of the big cake, which shows that capital is betting on the surge of the US auntie ETF. Blackstone takes the lead, and it is estimated that the listing time is not far away. The July 2nd rumored on the Internet can be expected.
In terms of altcoins, the EVM system has been affected by the auntie and performed well. ENS is particularly eye-catching and has entered a clear upward channel. Comprehensive analysis shows that the only benefit of ENS from the auntie is the price trend expectation. In terms of earning power, ens is still a project with a concept greater than reality.
Therefore, for this week's hedging strategy, it is recommended that BTC can continue to be covered, and MYT can be partially covered, leaving some exposure for chasing the rise.
For safe chasing, the bull market put spread strategy is recommended. Sell out-of-the-money (at-the-money) put + buy deep out-of-the-money put. As long as the price of MYT falls slightly, does not rise, rises slightly, or rises, the strategy will be profitable. If it plummets in time, the loss of the strategy will be limited.
For pairs trade, continue to pay attention to the hedging of sol and other baskets of tokens. Yesterday's plummeting prompted everyone to close half of their positions with profits, and today they can reopen positions based on the rising trend. For island friends who did not have a bottom position before, it is recommended to wait and see, wait for the trend of the altcoin to touch the upper Bollinger track of the four-hour before hedging and shorting.
Going long ETH and shorting altcoins is a good choice. The position ratio is 2:1 or 1:1.
Going long sol and shorting matic can be entered in batches with a light position at present, and the logic is to be optimistic about the growth of sol.
Welcome to join the Ice and Fire Island to communicate. #对冲交易 #冰火岛 $SOL $ETH $BTC
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Today’s hedging trading strategy, pay attention to safety
The sudden rise and fall of the currency circle is the source of profits for hedging transactions. Only by making good use of the fluctuations can you carry out price difference arbitrage.
Big Pie and Auntai have fallen significantly, and the hedged currencies have basically not fallen much. In this case, you cannot blindly cover your positions.
I have always emphasized that leverage cannot be increased, just to prevent hedging imbalances from causing liquidation.
In the current market situation, just continue to hold positions. Funding rates are still friendly to holding positions.
Before the halving, plummeting and rising prices were the usual tactics of bookmakers, so just sit tight on the Diaoyutai.
Option hedging can be forward monthly settlement, sell and call, and the exercise price is 72,000.
You can cover the floating loss part, but the principle is that the total position cannot exceed the margin, and there is no need to add leverage.
There is no rush to close the hedging position that has already made a profit at this time. You can continue to hold it.
I have talked about the concept of closing positions before. Only when you find a combination to open a new position, it is not too late to close the old position.
$BTC $ETH #对冲交易 #冰火岛
The sudden rise and fall of the currency circle is the source of profits for hedging transactions. Only by making good use of the fluctuations can you carry out price difference arbitrage.
Big Pie and Auntai have fallen significantly, and the hedged currencies have basically not fallen much. In this case, you cannot blindly cover your positions.
I have always emphasized that leverage cannot be increased, just to prevent hedging imbalances from causing liquidation.
In the current market situation, just continue to hold positions. Funding rates are still friendly to holding positions.
Before the halving, plummeting and rising prices were the usual tactics of bookmakers, so just sit tight on the Diaoyutai.
Option hedging can be forward monthly settlement, sell and call, and the exercise price is 72,000.
You can cover the floating loss part, but the principle is that the total position cannot exceed the margin, and there is no need to add leverage.
There is no rush to close the hedging position that has already made a profit at this time. You can continue to hold it.
I have talked about the concept of closing positions before. Only when you find a combination to open a new position, it is not too late to close the old position.
$BTC $ETH #对冲交易 #冰火岛
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[7.15 hedging strategy sharing, what is Trump trading? How will it affect the trend of the cryptocurrency circle]
Trump was assassinated, and the financial market is hotly discussing the "Trump trading". What is Trump trading?
In fact, it is very simple, it is an expected transaction betting on Trump's victory and the subsequent shift in US economic policy.
The United States is a two-party ruling party. The Democratic Party, representing the left-wing forces, is biased towards financial capital, and the Republican Party, representing the right-wing forces, is biased towards industrial capital. As the spokesperson for the Republican Party and rednecks, Trump is naturally the spokesperson for industrial capital. Once he wins the election, American industrial stocks and assets will usher in spring.
At the same time, Trump trading is also intertwined with future interest rate cuts. The strengthening of the US dollar and the strengthening of Bitcoin in the market are actually strange phenomena after the integration of Trump trading and interest rate cuts.
Bitcoin represents people's fear of high inflation and risk aversion. The cryptocurrency circle is the reservoir for future interest rate cuts.
Therefore, we can imagine that the situation after Trump's victory may be a situation of coordinated economic growth transformation and interest rate cuts. There may not be a direct surge in the stock market, but the probability of capital swaps is greater.
The only good news is that Trump holds 5 million U of ETH, and he will be friendly to the Auntie ETF and its entire crypto track.
From this week's short-term strategy, we can still bet on the above expectations.
It is recommended to do a short-term strategy of spot + covered call, or to lay out a long-term bull spread and ratio spread strategy.
In terms of pairs trade, continue to pay attention to coins such as ens, and hedge and short at highs.
The only variable in the near future is the listing of the Auntie ETF. Make an early layout and prepare for the response of falling first and then rising. Whether it rises first and then falls or falls first and then rises, the important thing is to get high returns with low risk and small investment. Options are a better choice than contracts.
Welcome to join Binghuo Island to communicate.
#冰火岛 #对冲交易 $ETH
$SOL
Trump was assassinated, and the financial market is hotly discussing the "Trump trading". What is Trump trading?
In fact, it is very simple, it is an expected transaction betting on Trump's victory and the subsequent shift in US economic policy.
The United States is a two-party ruling party. The Democratic Party, representing the left-wing forces, is biased towards financial capital, and the Republican Party, representing the right-wing forces, is biased towards industrial capital. As the spokesperson for the Republican Party and rednecks, Trump is naturally the spokesperson for industrial capital. Once he wins the election, American industrial stocks and assets will usher in spring.
At the same time, Trump trading is also intertwined with future interest rate cuts. The strengthening of the US dollar and the strengthening of Bitcoin in the market are actually strange phenomena after the integration of Trump trading and interest rate cuts.
Bitcoin represents people's fear of high inflation and risk aversion. The cryptocurrency circle is the reservoir for future interest rate cuts.
Therefore, we can imagine that the situation after Trump's victory may be a situation of coordinated economic growth transformation and interest rate cuts. There may not be a direct surge in the stock market, but the probability of capital swaps is greater.
The only good news is that Trump holds 5 million U of ETH, and he will be friendly to the Auntie ETF and its entire crypto track.
From this week's short-term strategy, we can still bet on the above expectations.
It is recommended to do a short-term strategy of spot + covered call, or to lay out a long-term bull spread and ratio spread strategy.
In terms of pairs trade, continue to pay attention to coins such as ens, and hedge and short at highs.
The only variable in the near future is the listing of the Auntie ETF. Make an early layout and prepare for the response of falling first and then rising. Whether it rises first and then falls or falls first and then rises, the important thing is to get high returns with low risk and small investment. Options are a better choice than contracts.
Welcome to join Binghuo Island to communicate.
#冰火岛 #对冲交易 $ETH
$SOL
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AR is strong, and FIL can no longer hedge against it in the storage track
AR's rise breaks the previous logic. Although FIL is included in the Grayscale holdings list, it is more of an emotional value, and there are not many actual purchases.
Under this situation, the previous logic of going long FIL and short AR is no longer valid.
Both the dealer and the narrative are optimistic about AR, but it still faces strong resistance in breaking through the upper pressure line.
It is difficult to break through the previous high, and it faces strong retracement pressure after breaking through the upper rail of the Bollinger band.
It is recommended to hedge currencies, pairs trade, go long on Bitcoin, short on AR, and choose the time to open a position after AR breaks through the upper rail, with a position ratio of 3 to 1.
Wait for AR to return to the middle rail of Bollinger. Or wait for Bitcoin to soar. Then stop profit.
#对冲交易 #冰火岛
AR's rise breaks the previous logic. Although FIL is included in the Grayscale holdings list, it is more of an emotional value, and there are not many actual purchases.
Under this situation, the previous logic of going long FIL and short AR is no longer valid.
Both the dealer and the narrative are optimistic about AR, but it still faces strong resistance in breaking through the upper pressure line.
It is difficult to break through the previous high, and it faces strong retracement pressure after breaking through the upper rail of the Bollinger band.
It is recommended to hedge currencies, pairs trade, go long on Bitcoin, short on AR, and choose the time to open a position after AR breaks through the upper rail, with a position ratio of 3 to 1.
Wait for AR to return to the middle rail of Bollinger. Or wait for Bitcoin to soar. Then stop profit.
#对冲交易 #冰火岛
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Today's hedging strategy is to continue holding Bitcoin to hedge against STX, and new positions are also OK
The specific reasons were explained yesterday, so I won't repeat them.
The volatility of STX is still sideways, and there was a slight profit from opening positions at highs yesterday.
However, if you keep hedging, the profit from funding fees is considerable.
You can check the history of funding rates, which is a bit outrageous.
Profits cannot last long. Even if STX rises again, it cannot change the fact that it focuses on narrative and neglects development.
There is no ecology, only stories, and the current price has paid a premium.
So, wait for the return.
#对冲交易 #冰火岛 $BTC $stx
The specific reasons were explained yesterday, so I won't repeat them.
The volatility of STX is still sideways, and there was a slight profit from opening positions at highs yesterday.
However, if you keep hedging, the profit from funding fees is considerable.
You can check the history of funding rates, which is a bit outrageous.
Profits cannot last long. Even if STX rises again, it cannot change the fact that it focuses on narrative and neglects development.
There is no ecology, only stories, and the current price has paid a premium.
So, wait for the return.
#对冲交易 #冰火岛 $BTC $stx
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[6.26 hedging strategy sharing, the Fed's hawkish remarks are coming, and the US stock market seems to have stopped buying it. Can the big cake rise? ]
The hawkish speech of the Fed voting committee stated that there might be no interest rate cuts in 2024. This hawkish speech seems to be another wolf coming, and the friends are a little unconvinced, even the US stock market Nvidia rebounded, Microsoft and Google hit new highs.
Can the big cake rebound? From the data, it seems that there is some resistance. The historical volatility is up, and the implied volatility is down, which is a divergence trend.
Although short-term divergence cannot indicate any long-term trend, the lack of momentum for rebound sentiment is certain.
Look forward to the emergence of new sentiment. The release of PCE data this Friday may be a good opportunity.
In addition, our crypto OG Trump will also have an election debate on Friday. Look forward to his golden sentences to ignite market sentiment.
The concubine is still cold and deserted, and the news of ETF listing is kept secret. The main force will not let retail investors buy the bottom in advance. This is a game of endurance and patience.
This week's hedging strategy is to be prepared for continued declines and to take insurance.
In terms of insurance, I think that the price of Yitai will not fall below 2900, and the price of Dabing will not fall below 56500.
For the insurance of Yitai, it is recommended to do a ratio spread, buy 3300 puts and sell 2900 puts, the time is the end of September, and the position ratio is 1:2. As long as it does not fall below 2900 at expiration, the combination will have the highest return.
At the same time, continue to cover the Yitai options and do not give up the weekly minimum guarantee income.
In order not to miss the future increase, a forward call ratio spread is also made. Buy 3800 calls and sell 4500 calls, position ratio: 1:2. Or, buy 3500 calls and sell 4000 calls, position ratio 1:1. Both are possible. Expiration time is the end of September.
As long as it does not rise above 4500 at expiration, the ratio spread will have the highest return. If it rises to more than 3500 but not more than 4000 at expiration, the bull spread combination will have the highest return. According to the judgment of the future market, everyone can build their own favorite price range.
In terms of Pairs trade, the cottage rebounded violently, and the profit could not last long. With the breakthrough of the upper track, it is not too late to short. Don't rush to open a position at present, just observe.
Welcome to join the Ice and Fire Island community to communicate together.
#冰火岛 #对冲交易 $BTC $ETH $SOL
The hawkish speech of the Fed voting committee stated that there might be no interest rate cuts in 2024. This hawkish speech seems to be another wolf coming, and the friends are a little unconvinced, even the US stock market Nvidia rebounded, Microsoft and Google hit new highs.
Can the big cake rebound? From the data, it seems that there is some resistance. The historical volatility is up, and the implied volatility is down, which is a divergence trend.
Although short-term divergence cannot indicate any long-term trend, the lack of momentum for rebound sentiment is certain.
Look forward to the emergence of new sentiment. The release of PCE data this Friday may be a good opportunity.
In addition, our crypto OG Trump will also have an election debate on Friday. Look forward to his golden sentences to ignite market sentiment.
The concubine is still cold and deserted, and the news of ETF listing is kept secret. The main force will not let retail investors buy the bottom in advance. This is a game of endurance and patience.
This week's hedging strategy is to be prepared for continued declines and to take insurance.
In terms of insurance, I think that the price of Yitai will not fall below 2900, and the price of Dabing will not fall below 56500.
For the insurance of Yitai, it is recommended to do a ratio spread, buy 3300 puts and sell 2900 puts, the time is the end of September, and the position ratio is 1:2. As long as it does not fall below 2900 at expiration, the combination will have the highest return.
At the same time, continue to cover the Yitai options and do not give up the weekly minimum guarantee income.
In order not to miss the future increase, a forward call ratio spread is also made. Buy 3800 calls and sell 4500 calls, position ratio: 1:2. Or, buy 3500 calls and sell 4000 calls, position ratio 1:1. Both are possible. Expiration time is the end of September.
As long as it does not rise above 4500 at expiration, the ratio spread will have the highest return. If it rises to more than 3500 but not more than 4000 at expiration, the bull spread combination will have the highest return. According to the judgment of the future market, everyone can build their own favorite price range.
In terms of Pairs trade, the cottage rebounded violently, and the profit could not last long. With the breakthrough of the upper track, it is not too late to short. Don't rush to open a position at present, just observe.
Welcome to join the Ice and Fire Island community to communicate together.
#冰火岛 #对冲交易 $BTC $ETH $SOL
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[7.11 hedging strategy sharing, S&P historical high Tesla rose 11 times in a row, how does capital swap affect Bitcoin? ]
Yesterday, the US stock market hit a new high again. The strong trend of the US economy has made the market full of confidence, and the pattern of stocks and bonds rising together is a bull market.
From Nvidia in the early stage to Tesla in the recent stage, the seven sisters of the US stock market have risen in rotation, and capital has smoothly swapped positions, pushing the index higher. However, Bitcoin has not kept up with the pace of the seven sisters recently, and there has been a significant retracement. Can we expect a big bull market to return in the future?
At present, analysts are still optimistic about the violent bull of the big cake, and they all seem to be betting on the surge in September. From the perspective of option data, the heavy bets in September, December, and March next year are also gradually increasing.
From the perspective of volatility, the 7-day HV of the big cake is higher than the at-the-money IV of 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months, and the traction of the implicit wave upward should take effect.
From the perspective of HV history, the 1-month HV is lower than the 6-month HV, and the probability of rising volatility is very high. With the expectation of both IV and HV rising, the expectation of Bitcoin rebound is gradually increasing.
The volatility trend of Yitai is similar to that of Bitcoin. Moreover, Yitai is also superimposed with the expectation of ETF listing. At present, we can expect its strong rebound.
However, from the perspective of volatility term structure, the fv before August was relatively low, and it was high after September. It should be that the market is optimistic about the official launch in September.
As traders, we will not put the ambush of the rise in September. Then continue the covered call strategy before August.
We should not try to eat all the rising profits. As long as we confirm the signal and enter the market to follow the general trend, we can eat part of the profits, which is already a good strategy.
In addition, while waiting for the sideways trading time of Bitcoin and Yitai to start, you may as well continue to trade cross-currency volatility.
The volatility of Sol and Matic is higher than that of Bitcoin. You can sell both cottage options and buy both Bitcoin options to earn the volatility difference. However, this strategy is risky. If you are not good at risk management, please operate with caution and try and make mistakes with a light position.
Welcome to join Binghuo Island to communicate. There will be a welfare lottery in the near future.
#冰火岛 #对冲交易 $ETH $SOL $BTC
Yesterday, the US stock market hit a new high again. The strong trend of the US economy has made the market full of confidence, and the pattern of stocks and bonds rising together is a bull market.
From Nvidia in the early stage to Tesla in the recent stage, the seven sisters of the US stock market have risen in rotation, and capital has smoothly swapped positions, pushing the index higher. However, Bitcoin has not kept up with the pace of the seven sisters recently, and there has been a significant retracement. Can we expect a big bull market to return in the future?
At present, analysts are still optimistic about the violent bull of the big cake, and they all seem to be betting on the surge in September. From the perspective of option data, the heavy bets in September, December, and March next year are also gradually increasing.
From the perspective of volatility, the 7-day HV of the big cake is higher than the at-the-money IV of 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months, and the traction of the implicit wave upward should take effect.
From the perspective of HV history, the 1-month HV is lower than the 6-month HV, and the probability of rising volatility is very high. With the expectation of both IV and HV rising, the expectation of Bitcoin rebound is gradually increasing.
The volatility trend of Yitai is similar to that of Bitcoin. Moreover, Yitai is also superimposed with the expectation of ETF listing. At present, we can expect its strong rebound.
However, from the perspective of volatility term structure, the fv before August was relatively low, and it was high after September. It should be that the market is optimistic about the official launch in September.
As traders, we will not put the ambush of the rise in September. Then continue the covered call strategy before August.
We should not try to eat all the rising profits. As long as we confirm the signal and enter the market to follow the general trend, we can eat part of the profits, which is already a good strategy.
In addition, while waiting for the sideways trading time of Bitcoin and Yitai to start, you may as well continue to trade cross-currency volatility.
The volatility of Sol and Matic is higher than that of Bitcoin. You can sell both cottage options and buy both Bitcoin options to earn the volatility difference. However, this strategy is risky. If you are not good at risk management, please operate with caution and try and make mistakes with a light position.
Welcome to join Binghuo Island to communicate. There will be a welfare lottery in the near future.
#冰火岛 #对冲交易 $ETH $SOL $BTC
See original
[7.18 hedging strategy sharing, capital swaps continue, US stocks fluctuate, can the cryptocurrency market have an independent market? ]
Goldman Sachs analysis has warned the market that the US stock market correction has not ended and the bull market has come to an end. Behind this bearish view, it is probably also affected by the party struggles in the US election, and the market risks have been predicted.
Trump's hot trading is actually a repetition of inflation expectations. Interest rate cuts or inflation first, at present, interest rate cuts come first, so there is no need to be so pessimistic that the bull is gone. After all, the Dow Jones is still rising, the Russell Index is still rising, and the cryptocurrency market may not follow suit.
If following analysts to speculate in stocks can always make money without losses, there will be no poor people in the world.
We must seriously refer to the conclusions of analysts in the general direction, but there will definitely be differences in subtle operations and different asset categories.
The cryptocurrency market is a high-risk asset. Under the current global political and economic landscape, uncertainty is rising and the demand for risk aversion is very strong. Even if the US stock market resumes inflation in the future, Bitcoin is not an ideal asset to resist inflation.
Investing requires rationality, and a little faith is also needed at critical moments. Don't be blindly swept by the market, but you should see the big trend after the small trend.
At the same time, you can do some insurance through forward put bear market spreads to prevent the tail risk of a sharp drop, and generally ignore small callbacks as much as possible.
From the perspective of volatility, there was some collapse in the forward IV of Big Pie in August and September, and it was rumored that the Auntie ETF was listed on July 23. Then the prudent approach can be to deleverage and remove contracts before listing, and only retain spot and forward insurance positions.
The future time after September is still positively bullish, with a target of 10w+.
The short-term target of Auntie is 5600 after September, and the future target is 10w+.
Although the seven sisters of the US stock market have retreated, we believe that the probability of an independent market in the currency circle is still very high. More and more traditional funds will enter Big Pie and Auntie through the ETF channel. The future trend of the two should be that the price continues to rise slowly and the volatility gradually decreases.
Therefore, let's do a covered call strategy together. The next ten years will be the best ten years for Big Pie and Auntie.
Welcome to join Ice and Fire Island to communicate.
#冰火岛 #对冲交易 $BTC $ETH
Goldman Sachs analysis has warned the market that the US stock market correction has not ended and the bull market has come to an end. Behind this bearish view, it is probably also affected by the party struggles in the US election, and the market risks have been predicted.
Trump's hot trading is actually a repetition of inflation expectations. Interest rate cuts or inflation first, at present, interest rate cuts come first, so there is no need to be so pessimistic that the bull is gone. After all, the Dow Jones is still rising, the Russell Index is still rising, and the cryptocurrency market may not follow suit.
If following analysts to speculate in stocks can always make money without losses, there will be no poor people in the world.
We must seriously refer to the conclusions of analysts in the general direction, but there will definitely be differences in subtle operations and different asset categories.
The cryptocurrency market is a high-risk asset. Under the current global political and economic landscape, uncertainty is rising and the demand for risk aversion is very strong. Even if the US stock market resumes inflation in the future, Bitcoin is not an ideal asset to resist inflation.
Investing requires rationality, and a little faith is also needed at critical moments. Don't be blindly swept by the market, but you should see the big trend after the small trend.
At the same time, you can do some insurance through forward put bear market spreads to prevent the tail risk of a sharp drop, and generally ignore small callbacks as much as possible.
From the perspective of volatility, there was some collapse in the forward IV of Big Pie in August and September, and it was rumored that the Auntie ETF was listed on July 23. Then the prudent approach can be to deleverage and remove contracts before listing, and only retain spot and forward insurance positions.
The future time after September is still positively bullish, with a target of 10w+.
The short-term target of Auntie is 5600 after September, and the future target is 10w+.
Although the seven sisters of the US stock market have retreated, we believe that the probability of an independent market in the currency circle is still very high. More and more traditional funds will enter Big Pie and Auntie through the ETF channel. The future trend of the two should be that the price continues to rise slowly and the volatility gradually decreases.
Therefore, let's do a covered call strategy together. The next ten years will be the best ten years for Big Pie and Auntie.
Welcome to join Ice and Fire Island to communicate.
#冰火岛 #对冲交易 $BTC $ETH
See original
If the middle track cannot be effectively broken tonight, the pie will wilt again next week
Come on! Haha
The downward trend of the pie is hard to stop, and the expectation of a rate cut is hard to contain.
The whole of May is still expected to fall, and it can only break through the end of the year after it is sorted out.
Auntie has always been my greater hope, but Hong Kong ETFs have indeed dampened enthusiasm.
The next step is to rely on the hype of ETFs in the United States.
From a strategic point of view, the covered call strategy of spot + selling call options is the most suitable for the current market situation. Increase returns and reduce spot costs.
The specific strategy and skills depend on personal risk preferences, welcome to discuss. $BTC $ETH #对冲交易 #冰火岛
Come on! Haha
The downward trend of the pie is hard to stop, and the expectation of a rate cut is hard to contain.
The whole of May is still expected to fall, and it can only break through the end of the year after it is sorted out.
Auntie has always been my greater hope, but Hong Kong ETFs have indeed dampened enthusiasm.
The next step is to rely on the hype of ETFs in the United States.
From a strategic point of view, the covered call strategy of spot + selling call options is the most suitable for the current market situation. Increase returns and reduce spot costs.
The specific strategy and skills depend on personal risk preferences, welcome to discuss. $BTC $ETH #对冲交易 #冰火岛
See original
[6.29 hedging strategy sharing, US PCE hits a three-year low, but the stock market is still falling, Big Bread and Auntie continue to reduce volatility, and the market will continue to be cold]
The crypto market has entered the sage time. As the embarrassing situation of good news not being fulfilled and rising continues, market sentiment has become cold and dull to the freezing point.
Before and after the release of US PCE data, the market was quite expectant, but the effect was average. US stocks still opened high and closed low, and did not bring strong sentiment.
The volatility of Big Bread and Auntie in the currency circle continued to decline. Big Bread has reached a historical low. Although Auntie is still at a relatively high level, the trend is also continuing to reduce volatility.
The weekend market is likely to continue to maintain a negative decline. At the same time, be careful of the risk of a large retracement.
In this situation, it is recommended to still focus on the covered call strategy, and buy the put ratio spread at delta0.3 to protect against declines.
According to the historical experience of the listing of Big Bread ETF, necessary callbacks can relieve Grayscale's selling pressure and guide new physical assets into ETFs.
The Yitai ETF is likely to follow a similar process, and may have entered the wash period.
In terms of pairs trade, the leading token of the EVM system continues to rise, approaching the upper track of the Bollinger band, and can be hedged with a light position.
Welcome to join the Binghuodao community to communicate together.
#对冲交易 #冰火岛 $ETH $SOL $ENS
The crypto market has entered the sage time. As the embarrassing situation of good news not being fulfilled and rising continues, market sentiment has become cold and dull to the freezing point.
Before and after the release of US PCE data, the market was quite expectant, but the effect was average. US stocks still opened high and closed low, and did not bring strong sentiment.
The volatility of Big Bread and Auntie in the currency circle continued to decline. Big Bread has reached a historical low. Although Auntie is still at a relatively high level, the trend is also continuing to reduce volatility.
The weekend market is likely to continue to maintain a negative decline. At the same time, be careful of the risk of a large retracement.
In this situation, it is recommended to still focus on the covered call strategy, and buy the put ratio spread at delta0.3 to protect against declines.
According to the historical experience of the listing of Big Bread ETF, necessary callbacks can relieve Grayscale's selling pressure and guide new physical assets into ETFs.
The Yitai ETF is likely to follow a similar process, and may have entered the wash period.
In terms of pairs trade, the leading token of the EVM system continues to rise, approaching the upper track of the Bollinger band, and can be hedged with a light position.
Welcome to join the Binghuodao community to communicate together.
#对冲交易 #冰火岛 $ETH $SOL $ENS
See original
[6.23 hedging strategy sharing, Bitcoin HV and IV both fell, market opinions diverged]
There is a saying that Bitcoin rises in divergence and plummets in consensus. However, the current Bitcoin divergence is very large and has been sideways for a long time. Where will the market go in the future?
People who follow the Buddhist philosophy will say that they come from where they came and go where they are going. I will not fool you. There is a 90% probability that there will be a correction, a plummeting correction.
The analysis logic is: First, the US stock market has peaked, and a type of technology stocks such as Nvidia have grouped together to increase their market value, which is very similar to Tesla in 2021. Profits cannot last long, and prosperity will inevitably decline.
Second, Bitcoin is seriously Americanized, the number of Bitcoins on exchanges has decreased, and ETFs have increased their holdings. The logic of Bitcoin is no longer the logic of the currency circle, but the logic of the US stock market.
Third, the volatility signal. The historical volatility is lower, the implied volatility is lower, and the hope of bottoming out and rebounding is not great, because the price of Bitcoin is already at a historical high. It is also in line with experience to fall and pull back before setting a new high.
I hope my guess is wrong, and Bitcoin will continue to rise to 10K. The purpose of analyzing risks is to prevent risks and avoid losses.
It is recommended to adopt a conservative strategy when market opinions diverge.
First, stop increasing spot holdings, and open medium- and long-term delivery contracts at the same time to partially hedge spot exposure.
Second, you can sell some medium- and long-term out-of-the-money covered options, use the premium to reduce the cost of holding positions and increase the return on holding positions.
Third, you can use a small amount of funds to do some forward bullish spread strategies, so that you can get some of the returns in case of a surge and will not miss out.
In addition, Bitcoin's bearishness does not affect my bullishness. The logic is still the logic of US stocks. When Tesla fell, Nvidia took over.
If Bitcoin pulls back, the Ethereum Fund will take over. Even once the Ethereum ETF is listed, we must be prepared for Bitcoin's plunge.
The routine of capital swapping, one pool pouring into another pool, although the trick is old, it works well.
In terms of Pairs trade, long Yitai and short ens, all island friends have made good profits, right? Just continue to hold positions, ens will continue to go down.
Welcome to join the Binghuo Island community to communicate.
#冰火岛 #对冲交易 $ETH $BTC $ENS
There is a saying that Bitcoin rises in divergence and plummets in consensus. However, the current Bitcoin divergence is very large and has been sideways for a long time. Where will the market go in the future?
People who follow the Buddhist philosophy will say that they come from where they came and go where they are going. I will not fool you. There is a 90% probability that there will be a correction, a plummeting correction.
The analysis logic is: First, the US stock market has peaked, and a type of technology stocks such as Nvidia have grouped together to increase their market value, which is very similar to Tesla in 2021. Profits cannot last long, and prosperity will inevitably decline.
Second, Bitcoin is seriously Americanized, the number of Bitcoins on exchanges has decreased, and ETFs have increased their holdings. The logic of Bitcoin is no longer the logic of the currency circle, but the logic of the US stock market.
Third, the volatility signal. The historical volatility is lower, the implied volatility is lower, and the hope of bottoming out and rebounding is not great, because the price of Bitcoin is already at a historical high. It is also in line with experience to fall and pull back before setting a new high.
I hope my guess is wrong, and Bitcoin will continue to rise to 10K. The purpose of analyzing risks is to prevent risks and avoid losses.
It is recommended to adopt a conservative strategy when market opinions diverge.
First, stop increasing spot holdings, and open medium- and long-term delivery contracts at the same time to partially hedge spot exposure.
Second, you can sell some medium- and long-term out-of-the-money covered options, use the premium to reduce the cost of holding positions and increase the return on holding positions.
Third, you can use a small amount of funds to do some forward bullish spread strategies, so that you can get some of the returns in case of a surge and will not miss out.
In addition, Bitcoin's bearishness does not affect my bullishness. The logic is still the logic of US stocks. When Tesla fell, Nvidia took over.
If Bitcoin pulls back, the Ethereum Fund will take over. Even once the Ethereum ETF is listed, we must be prepared for Bitcoin's plunge.
The routine of capital swapping, one pool pouring into another pool, although the trick is old, it works well.
In terms of Pairs trade, long Yitai and short ens, all island friends have made good profits, right? Just continue to hold positions, ens will continue to go down.
Welcome to join the Binghuo Island community to communicate.
#冰火岛 #对冲交易 $ETH $BTC $ENS
See original
Today's hedging trading strategy, continue to be long on Ethereum
The takeoff of Auntie is not far away.
Continue to build positions in batches, hedge the sale of call options, out-of-the-money strike prices 3450 and 3750
You can use pendle to hedge part of it
The rise of Auntie needs an opportunity, and Hong Kong ETF is an opportunity
In addition, the hoarding of coins by giant whales will also help Auntie stabilize the trend
As long as it goes sideways, it is a victory $ETH
#对冲交易 #冰火岛
The takeoff of Auntie is not far away.
Continue to build positions in batches, hedge the sale of call options, out-of-the-money strike prices 3450 and 3750
You can use pendle to hedge part of it
The rise of Auntie needs an opportunity, and Hong Kong ETF is an opportunity
In addition, the hoarding of coins by giant whales will also help Auntie stabilize the trend
As long as it goes sideways, it is a victory $ETH
#对冲交易 #冰火岛
See original
[6.22 hedging strategy sharing, Bitcoin enters a downward trend, beware of the risk of retracement, and do a good job of hedging protection]
When the moon is full, it will be waning, and the profit cannot last long. Whether it is the US stock market or Bitcoin, it has been rising for too long, and the view of retracement is gradually increasing.
From the data, the trend of Bitcoin breaks below the lower track of the daily Bollinger Band, and the daily line forms an obvious M top. The historical volatility of Bitcoin has gradually risen steadily, but the implied volatility has continued to decline, and has approached the historical low, IVP34.9.
The divergence of volatility shows that traders are very pessimistic about the market outlook in the next 30 days, the trading momentum is weakened, and the probability of Bitcoin retracement or even a sharp drop increases.
Under this judgment premise, there are several ways to deal with it:
First, continue to cover short-term calls and use time value to subsidize the possible downside losses of Bitcoin.
Second, buy out-of-the-money put options to protect against potential future declines.
Third, go long on Auntie and short on Bitcoin, and use hedging to protect.
I personally prefer covered calls and hedging. Capital shifts from Bitcoin to the speculation of Yitai, especially after the listing of Yitai ETF, this possibility will be very high.
This process will not be achieved overnight. U.S. stocks can be used as a signal. When the three major stock indexes fall back, the hedging of Bitcoin can be started.
At present, use Yitai and Bitcoin exchange rates to go long, and do not take measures against this wave of Yitai.
In terms of pairs trade, go long on Yitai and short on ENs, uni, etc., and you can build positions in batches.
Once Bitcoin plummets, the cottage will follow and form a trampling, so ambush in advance to prevent any accidents.
Yitai's ETF is expected to make it perform strongly, which is the logic of going long on Yitai.
Welcome to join the Ice and Fire Island community for discussion and exchange. Recently, there is a 200U welfare distribution, welcome to receive it.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #对冲交易 #冰火岛
When the moon is full, it will be waning, and the profit cannot last long. Whether it is the US stock market or Bitcoin, it has been rising for too long, and the view of retracement is gradually increasing.
From the data, the trend of Bitcoin breaks below the lower track of the daily Bollinger Band, and the daily line forms an obvious M top. The historical volatility of Bitcoin has gradually risen steadily, but the implied volatility has continued to decline, and has approached the historical low, IVP34.9.
The divergence of volatility shows that traders are very pessimistic about the market outlook in the next 30 days, the trading momentum is weakened, and the probability of Bitcoin retracement or even a sharp drop increases.
Under this judgment premise, there are several ways to deal with it:
First, continue to cover short-term calls and use time value to subsidize the possible downside losses of Bitcoin.
Second, buy out-of-the-money put options to protect against potential future declines.
Third, go long on Auntie and short on Bitcoin, and use hedging to protect.
I personally prefer covered calls and hedging. Capital shifts from Bitcoin to the speculation of Yitai, especially after the listing of Yitai ETF, this possibility will be very high.
This process will not be achieved overnight. U.S. stocks can be used as a signal. When the three major stock indexes fall back, the hedging of Bitcoin can be started.
At present, use Yitai and Bitcoin exchange rates to go long, and do not take measures against this wave of Yitai.
In terms of pairs trade, go long on Yitai and short on ENs, uni, etc., and you can build positions in batches.
Once Bitcoin plummets, the cottage will follow and form a trampling, so ambush in advance to prevent any accidents.
Yitai's ETF is expected to make it perform strongly, which is the logic of going long on Yitai.
Welcome to join the Ice and Fire Island community for discussion and exchange. Recently, there is a 200U welfare distribution, welcome to receive it.
$BTC $ETH $SOL #对冲交易 #冰火岛
See original
Thank you for recharging your faith again.
Ethereum holders are quite anxious recently.
When will it be listed? I have been waiting for so long that my hair has turned gray. Haha $ETH
It will soon soar to the sky!
To chase the rise with options, you can consider the bull spread and ratio spread strategies.
#冰火岛 #对冲交易
Ethereum holders are quite anxious recently.
When will it be listed? I have been waiting for so long that my hair has turned gray. Haha $ETH
It will soon soar to the sky!
To chase the rise with options, you can consider the bull spread and ratio spread strategies.
#冰火岛 #对冲交易
Binance News
--
VanEck Predicts Ethereum to Reach $22,000 by 2030
According to CoinDesk, global investment company VanEck predicts that Ethereum's native token Ether will reach $22,000 in 2030, which will be a significant jump from the current level of about $3,850. VanEck's prediction is based on Ethereum's disruptive capabilities and the interpretation of on-chain data. VanEck wrote that Ethereum is disrupting industries such as finance, banking, payments, marketing, advertising, social, games, infrastructure and artificial intelligence. The prediction is also based on the expectation that the Ethereum ETF will be approved and the company's interpretation of on-chain data. VanEck wrote that the disruptive force that drives Ethereum to $22,000 is based on Ethereum's technology, which can provide lower costs, increased efficiency and greater transparency. VanEck also pointed out that free cash flow generated by income from holding Ethereum is expected to reach $66 billion in 2030, which will also drive Ethereum's valuation to the expected target. Ethereum has risen more than 63% so far this year.
See original
Today's hedging strategy sharing, talk about Ethereum ETF's favorable pledge track
Fidelity has modified the ETF application form, indicating that it will no longer be pledged. In other words, once the Yitai ETF is listed, the absolute deflation of Ethereum will be aggravated.
Without staking, there will be no interest, and the ETF income of Ethereum will decrease. However, the pledge income of other Yitai will be relatively improved.
In other words, the larger the scale of the ETF, the higher the return of the pledge track, because staking is the core mechanism of Ethereum's POS, and it must have a certain scale to ensure safety.
So it is understandable that the copycat rises, and it is even more understandable that the market expects Yitai ETF. It can activate the entire second-layer network and generate alpha returns far exceeding other currencies.
Therefore, once the Yitai ETF is passed, it is a good idea to ambush a leader in the pledge and re-pledge track.
At the same time, you can use over-the-counter options to hedge and enhance the income of holding coins.
Let's get back to the point. Today's strategy is still bullish on Ethereum, but you must do a good job of hedging against retracements.
Will the landing deadline on the 23rd pass? The big fluctuations are already undercurrent.
It is recommended to buy the double-buy doomsday options that expire on the 24th at noon on the 23rd.
The price of the aunt soared, and the call option soared 6,000 times. This market may be replicated again. Soaring or plummeting, double buying can take it all.
Unless it does not rise or fall, then you can only admit defeat. Double buying is betting on big fluctuations, so the investment is very small. Under $100, don't invest more.
If you don't want to gamble, you can continue to do covered call strategy. Buy spot and sell call options with an exercise price of 4,000. Expiration date is May 31st.
In the middle of the bull market, I wish you all continue to make a fortune. $BTC $ETH #以太坊ETF批准预期 #冰火岛 #对冲交易
Fidelity has modified the ETF application form, indicating that it will no longer be pledged. In other words, once the Yitai ETF is listed, the absolute deflation of Ethereum will be aggravated.
Without staking, there will be no interest, and the ETF income of Ethereum will decrease. However, the pledge income of other Yitai will be relatively improved.
In other words, the larger the scale of the ETF, the higher the return of the pledge track, because staking is the core mechanism of Ethereum's POS, and it must have a certain scale to ensure safety.
So it is understandable that the copycat rises, and it is even more understandable that the market expects Yitai ETF. It can activate the entire second-layer network and generate alpha returns far exceeding other currencies.
Therefore, once the Yitai ETF is passed, it is a good idea to ambush a leader in the pledge and re-pledge track.
At the same time, you can use over-the-counter options to hedge and enhance the income of holding coins.
Let's get back to the point. Today's strategy is still bullish on Ethereum, but you must do a good job of hedging against retracements.
Will the landing deadline on the 23rd pass? The big fluctuations are already undercurrent.
It is recommended to buy the double-buy doomsday options that expire on the 24th at noon on the 23rd.
The price of the aunt soared, and the call option soared 6,000 times. This market may be replicated again. Soaring or plummeting, double buying can take it all.
Unless it does not rise or fall, then you can only admit defeat. Double buying is betting on big fluctuations, so the investment is very small. Under $100, don't invest more.
If you don't want to gamble, you can continue to do covered call strategy. Buy spot and sell call options with an exercise price of 4,000. Expiration date is May 31st.
In the middle of the bull market, I wish you all continue to make a fortune. $BTC $ETH #以太坊ETF批准预期 #冰火岛 #对冲交易
See original
Let's sort out the second-layer coins of Bitcoin as alternatives for hedging transactions
The rise of Bitcoin has led to the vigorous development of the second layer.
The second-layer coins that have been listed have all had new fluctuations recently. You can choose the coins that are close to the upper track of the Bollinger band for hedging.
Arrange from high to low market value
Bch (forked coin), stx (compliant), cfx (domestic concept), ckb (rgb++ technology), rif (L3 concept)
Recently, ckb has attracted market attention again. You can short it lightly at highs and hedge Bitcoin.
The market value of Rif is still relatively small. It is recommended to wait until it enters the top 100 before hedging.
Cfx has already made a short-term correction. The next time it rises and breaks the Bollinger band, you can open a position again for hedging.
Bitcoin is a treasure trove. The competition in the second layer will become more and more fierce. Most of the second layers will be lost in the crowd, which is our arbitrage space. Keep paying attention.
Merlin is waiting for the issuance of coins in full swing. If you have the leisure time, you can go for airdrops.
The development trajectory of the second layer will be parabolic, and you can make profits at highs.
#对冲交易 #冰火岛 $BTC $ETH $stx
The rise of Bitcoin has led to the vigorous development of the second layer.
The second-layer coins that have been listed have all had new fluctuations recently. You can choose the coins that are close to the upper track of the Bollinger band for hedging.
Arrange from high to low market value
Bch (forked coin), stx (compliant), cfx (domestic concept), ckb (rgb++ technology), rif (L3 concept)
Recently, ckb has attracted market attention again. You can short it lightly at highs and hedge Bitcoin.
The market value of Rif is still relatively small. It is recommended to wait until it enters the top 100 before hedging.
Cfx has already made a short-term correction. The next time it rises and breaks the Bollinger band, you can open a position again for hedging.
Bitcoin is a treasure trove. The competition in the second layer will become more and more fierce. Most of the second layers will be lost in the crowd, which is our arbitrage space. Keep paying attention.
Merlin is waiting for the issuance of coins in full swing. If you have the leisure time, you can go for airdrops.
The development trajectory of the second layer will be parabolic, and you can make profits at highs.
#对冲交易 #冰火岛 $BTC $ETH $stx
See original
Basic knowledge of options, first bullet
Starting today, I will popularize the basic knowledge of options trading. Major exchanges should thank me for providing free investment education, haha.
Let's talk about the four trading directions of options first.
Options, options, a right to buy or sell spot at a specific price at a future time.
Therefore, options are divided into call options and put options.
Call, call option, stipulates that the buyer of the option buys spot at a specific price at a specific time in the future.
Call options include two trading directions:
Long call, buy call
Short call, sell call
Put, put option, stipulates that the buyer of the option sells spot at a specific price at a specific time in the future.
Put options include two trading directions:
Long put, buy put
Short put, sell put
For example,
Ethereum Long- 20240419- 3600-call
The above option means that the eth call option expires on April 19, 2024, with an exercise price of $3,600.
If you buy this option and choose to exercise it when it expires, you can buy the aunt at a price of $3,600. If it rises to $3,700 at this time, you will make a profit. If it falls to $3,500 at this time, it is not profitable, and you can also not exercise the option, and only lose the premium for buying the option.
If you sell this option, you promise to sell the aunt at a price of 3,600 yuan as agreed when the option expires. No matter how much the aunt price is at that time, as long as someone exercises the option with you, you must fulfill the contract. In return, you can get the option premium.
So, the buyer pays the premium and gets a promise. The seller promises a promise, gets the premium, and the option transaction is completed.
In order to ensure fulfillment, we will also ask the seller to pay a certain margin.
In reality, many buyers use option leverage to bet on unilateral rises and falls for the sake of safety and risk-taking. Many sellers do it to hedge spot risks and hedge arbitrage.
Everyone gets what they need and gets what they want. This is the charm of the financial market.
At present, Bitcoin and Ethereum options are relatively mature, and everyone can trade together.
Next time, we will talk about the impact of Greek letters on trading.
For more knowledge about #对冲交易 , please follow #冰火岛 $BTC $ETH
Starting today, I will popularize the basic knowledge of options trading. Major exchanges should thank me for providing free investment education, haha.
Let's talk about the four trading directions of options first.
Options, options, a right to buy or sell spot at a specific price at a future time.
Therefore, options are divided into call options and put options.
Call, call option, stipulates that the buyer of the option buys spot at a specific price at a specific time in the future.
Call options include two trading directions:
Long call, buy call
Short call, sell call
Put, put option, stipulates that the buyer of the option sells spot at a specific price at a specific time in the future.
Put options include two trading directions:
Long put, buy put
Short put, sell put
For example,
Ethereum Long- 20240419- 3600-call
The above option means that the eth call option expires on April 19, 2024, with an exercise price of $3,600.
If you buy this option and choose to exercise it when it expires, you can buy the aunt at a price of $3,600. If it rises to $3,700 at this time, you will make a profit. If it falls to $3,500 at this time, it is not profitable, and you can also not exercise the option, and only lose the premium for buying the option.
If you sell this option, you promise to sell the aunt at a price of 3,600 yuan as agreed when the option expires. No matter how much the aunt price is at that time, as long as someone exercises the option with you, you must fulfill the contract. In return, you can get the option premium.
So, the buyer pays the premium and gets a promise. The seller promises a promise, gets the premium, and the option transaction is completed.
In order to ensure fulfillment, we will also ask the seller to pay a certain margin.
In reality, many buyers use option leverage to bet on unilateral rises and falls for the sake of safety and risk-taking. Many sellers do it to hedge spot risks and hedge arbitrage.
Everyone gets what they need and gets what they want. This is the charm of the financial market.
At present, Bitcoin and Ethereum options are relatively mature, and everyone can trade together.
Next time, we will talk about the impact of Greek letters on trading.
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