[Sharing of hedging strategies on the weekend of August 3, non-agricultural data triggered recession concerns, and the US stock market brought down the cryptocurrency market. Will it continue to fall further in the future? ]
Recently, I have been reminding you of the black swan risk. I wonder if any island friends have bought insurance and recovered some losses last night.
Last night, the number of new non-agricultural jobs in the United States in July was far below expectations and the previous value, and the unemployment rate was the highest in nearly three years. Recession concerns caused the market to plummet and US bonds to soar.
The number of non-agricultural jobs in July dropped sharply from the previous value of 179,000 to 114,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level in three years, and triggered the recession indicator Sam's rule. Affected by this, the three major US stock indexes led the decline, and the "fear index" VIX hit the highest level since March last year, up more than 59%.
At present, analysts believe that there is no suspense about the interest rate cut in September. The key is how much it can be cut? If it is less than 100 basis points, it will probably be a drop in the bucket and it will be difficult to curb the recession.
The US recession will bring down the US stock market and the world economy, and the huge risks will make the market silent.
On the other hand, in the cryptocurrency circle, the big cake and the concubine followed the decline, and the amplitude was large. The implied volatility of the two rebounded from the bottom. The recent volatility has risen particularly fast, and the left side of the volatility tilt curve has risen. It seems that everyone's bets on the decline have increased.
In the next few days, the probability of a continued deep retracement is very high. It is recommended to take insurance to prevent tail risks.
At the same time, the upward trend of volatility is also conducive to the implementation of the seller's short volatility strategy at highs.
When it fell, there was also good news. Trump said in an interview on Friday that it is recommended to use cryptocurrency to solve the US debt problem, suggesting that the United States accepts Bitcoin to help solve the US debt of 35 trillion US dollars.
In this way, Bitcoin's future prospects are still bright, and in order to take on the great responsibility, it has to continue to rise.
Therefore, the forward ambush rise is still the main theme of option traders.
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