[7.11 hedging strategy sharing, S&P historical high Tesla rose 11 times in a row, how does capital swap affect Bitcoin? ]
Yesterday, the US stock market hit a new high again. The strong trend of the US economy has made the market full of confidence, and the pattern of stocks and bonds rising together is a bull market.
From Nvidia in the early stage to Tesla in the recent stage, the seven sisters of the US stock market have risen in rotation, and capital has smoothly swapped positions, pushing the index higher. However, Bitcoin has not kept up with the pace of the seven sisters recently, and there has been a significant retracement. Can we expect a big bull market to return in the future?
At present, analysts are still optimistic about the violent bull of the big cake, and they all seem to be betting on the surge in September. From the perspective of option data, the heavy bets in September, December, and March next year are also gradually increasing.
From the perspective of volatility, the 7-day HV of the big cake is higher than the at-the-money IV of 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months, and the traction of the implicit wave upward should take effect.
From the perspective of HV history, the 1-month HV is lower than the 6-month HV, and the probability of rising volatility is very high. With the expectation of both IV and HV rising, the expectation of Bitcoin rebound is gradually increasing.
The volatility trend of Yitai is similar to that of Bitcoin. Moreover, Yitai is also superimposed with the expectation of ETF listing. At present, we can expect its strong rebound.
However, from the perspective of volatility term structure, the fv before August was relatively low, and it was high after September. It should be that the market is optimistic about the official launch in September.
As traders, we will not put the ambush of the rise in September. Then continue the covered call strategy before August.
We should not try to eat all the rising profits. As long as we confirm the signal and enter the market to follow the general trend, we can eat part of the profits, which is already a good strategy.
In addition, while waiting for the sideways trading time of Bitcoin and Yitai to start, you may as well continue to trade cross-currency volatility.
The volatility of Sol and Matic is higher than that of Bitcoin. You can sell both cottage options and buy both Bitcoin options to earn the volatility difference. However, this strategy is risky. If you are not good at risk management, please operate with caution and try and make mistakes with a light position.
Welcome to join Binghuo Island to communicate. There will be a welfare lottery in the near future.
