[6.22 hedging strategy sharing, Bitcoin enters a downward trend, beware of the risk of retracement, and do a good job of hedging protection]
When the moon is full, it will be waning, and the profit cannot last long. Whether it is the US stock market or Bitcoin, it has been rising for too long, and the view of retracement is gradually increasing.
From the data, the trend of Bitcoin breaks below the lower track of the daily Bollinger Band, and the daily line forms an obvious M top. The historical volatility of Bitcoin has gradually risen steadily, but the implied volatility has continued to decline, and has approached the historical low, IVP34.9.
The divergence of volatility shows that traders are very pessimistic about the market outlook in the next 30 days, the trading momentum is weakened, and the probability of Bitcoin retracement or even a sharp drop increases.
Under this judgment premise, there are several ways to deal with it:
First, continue to cover short-term calls and use time value to subsidize the possible downside losses of Bitcoin.
Second, buy out-of-the-money put options to protect against potential future declines.
Third, go long on Auntie and short on Bitcoin, and use hedging to protect.
I personally prefer covered calls and hedging. Capital shifts from Bitcoin to the speculation of Yitai, especially after the listing of Yitai ETF, this possibility will be very high.
This process will not be achieved overnight. U.S. stocks can be used as a signal. When the three major stock indexes fall back, the hedging of Bitcoin can be started.
At present, use Yitai and Bitcoin exchange rates to go long, and do not take measures against this wave of Yitai.
In terms of pairs trade, go long on Yitai and short on ENs, uni, etc., and you can build positions in batches.
Once Bitcoin plummets, the cottage will follow and form a trampling, so ambush in advance to prevent any accidents.
Yitai's ETF is expected to make it perform strongly, which is the logic of going long on Yitai.
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