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BTC LTF Analysis
$BTC is currently testing the 200 EMA (red) as dynamic resistance, after repeated failures to close above it. Meanwhile, the 21 EMA (yellow) and 50 EMA (green) are compressing from below - a setup that typically signals a potential shift in short-term momentum.
Price also sits just below the dWeek VWAP at $107830, which now acts as the primary marker for supply/demand balance.
Key levels:
107,830 (dWeek VWAP) - key resistance, recent rejection originated here.
105,497 (dWeek VAL) - nearest lower support.
104,564 (pWeek VAH) - deeper area of interest for buyers.
103,632 (pWeek VWAP) - defines last week’s lower value range.
Price behavior
The latest bounce from the 105,500-105,700 area came on rising volume, but lacked follow-through. BTC remains capped below VWAP and struggles to sustain above the 21/50 EMAs. Meanwhile, the 200 EMA is pressing down, reinforcing a range-bound environment.
Volume picked up during the last rejection, suggesting sellers are active around 107,800–108,000.
Watch for:
A clean break and close above 107,830 (VWAP) on strong volume is needed to flip the structure bullish short term.
Failure to reclaim it = elevated risk of a drop back to 105,500 (VAL) or deeper value zones below.
$BTC is currently testing the 200 EMA (red) as dynamic resistance, after repeated failures to close above it. Meanwhile, the 21 EMA (yellow) and 50 EMA (green) are compressing from below - a setup that typically signals a potential shift in short-term momentum.
Price also sits just below the dWeek VWAP at $107830, which now acts as the primary marker for supply/demand balance.
Key levels:
107,830 (dWeek VWAP) - key resistance, recent rejection originated here.
105,497 (dWeek VAL) - nearest lower support.
104,564 (pWeek VAH) - deeper area of interest for buyers.
103,632 (pWeek VWAP) - defines last week’s lower value range.
Price behavior
The latest bounce from the 105,500-105,700 area came on rising volume, but lacked follow-through. BTC remains capped below VWAP and struggles to sustain above the 21/50 EMAs. Meanwhile, the 200 EMA is pressing down, reinforcing a range-bound environment.
Volume picked up during the last rejection, suggesting sellers are active around 107,800–108,000.
Watch for:
A clean break and close above 107,830 (VWAP) on strong volume is needed to flip the structure bullish short term.
Failure to reclaim it = elevated risk of a drop back to 105,500 (VAL) or deeper value zones below.
Logarithmic Growth Analysis of BTC
The presented logarithmic growth chart of Bitcoin outlines BTC’s long-term trajectory since 2010 and highlights several key zones:
- Pink line ("Overbought") - cycle tops and extreme peaks.
- Purple and blue lines ("Midpoints") - median growth levels BTC tends to revert to during periods of stable appreciation.
- Green line ("Oversold") - cyclical bottom support during bear markets.
Historical Observations:
BTC has consistently followed a long-term logarithmic growth path, with the slope gradually flattening over time.
Each bull cycle has historically culminated near or at the overbought line.
As cycles mature, their amplitude compresses - reflecting Bitcoin’s increasing market cap and structural maturity.
Current Positioning:
As of now, BTC (~$107K) is trading just below the Midpoint 2 (blue line), indicating a structurally healthy position within a sustained long-term uptrend.
Outlook for End of 2025:
Based on historical behavior and trend alignment, the following scenarios are plausible:
- Conservative case: $180K–$220K
- Optimistic case: $250K–$320K
- Base case (most likely): ~$200K–$250K
The logarithmic trend reinforces prior projections and supports a high-probability scenario in which BTC reaches the $200K–$250K range by the end of 2025, assuming continuation of the current market trajectory.
*data: @Alphractal
The presented logarithmic growth chart of Bitcoin outlines BTC’s long-term trajectory since 2010 and highlights several key zones:
- Pink line ("Overbought") - cycle tops and extreme peaks.
- Purple and blue lines ("Midpoints") - median growth levels BTC tends to revert to during periods of stable appreciation.
- Green line ("Oversold") - cyclical bottom support during bear markets.
Historical Observations:
BTC has consistently followed a long-term logarithmic growth path, with the slope gradually flattening over time.
Each bull cycle has historically culminated near or at the overbought line.
As cycles mature, their amplitude compresses - reflecting Bitcoin’s increasing market cap and structural maturity.
Current Positioning:
As of now, BTC (~$107K) is trading just below the Midpoint 2 (blue line), indicating a structurally healthy position within a sustained long-term uptrend.
Outlook for End of 2025:
Based on historical behavior and trend alignment, the following scenarios are plausible:
- Conservative case: $180K–$220K
- Optimistic case: $250K–$320K
- Base case (most likely): ~$200K–$250K
The logarithmic trend reinforces prior projections and supports a high-probability scenario in which BTC reaches the $200K–$250K range by the end of 2025, assuming continuation of the current market trajectory.
*data: @Alphractal
This chart illustrates the price trajectory of $BTC following each of the four halving events (2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024). A recurring pattern can be observed across all cycles:
- A major rally and peak typically occur 400–500 days post-halving.
- Each successive cycle has shown a diminishing relative amplitude compared to the previous one.
Current Positioning and Historical Comparison
As of now - approximately 395 days after the 2024 halving - BTC is trading around $107K. For context, at the same stage in previous cycles:
- 2012 cycle: ~$750–1000 (with a peak around ~$3.7K)
- 2016 cycle: ~$6–8K (peak around ~$20K)
- 2020 cycle: ~$45–55K (peak at ~$69K)
When comparing these trajectories, it's clear the current cycle is progressing at a slower pace than 2016 and 2020, and shows significantly lower amplitude than earlier cycles. This aligns with the broader trend of cycle compression and diminishing returns, driven by Bitcoin's growing market cap and increasing market maturity.
BTC Price Outlook for 2025
Given historical patterns and the deceleration in growth, Bitcoin is likely to reach its cycle peak within the next 200–400 days.
If we assume a continued 50–60% decline in cycle-over-cycle ROI (relative to prior peaks), the projected peak range for $BTC this cycle falls between $180K and $250K.
Conclusion: A conservative and realistic forecast for Bitcoin’s price by the end of 2025 is around $200K.
*data: @Alphractal
- A major rally and peak typically occur 400–500 days post-halving.
- Each successive cycle has shown a diminishing relative amplitude compared to the previous one.
Current Positioning and Historical Comparison
As of now - approximately 395 days after the 2024 halving - BTC is trading around $107K. For context, at the same stage in previous cycles:
- 2012 cycle: ~$750–1000 (with a peak around ~$3.7K)
- 2016 cycle: ~$6–8K (peak around ~$20K)
- 2020 cycle: ~$45–55K (peak at ~$69K)
When comparing these trajectories, it's clear the current cycle is progressing at a slower pace than 2016 and 2020, and shows significantly lower amplitude than earlier cycles. This aligns with the broader trend of cycle compression and diminishing returns, driven by Bitcoin's growing market cap and increasing market maturity.
BTC Price Outlook for 2025
Given historical patterns and the deceleration in growth, Bitcoin is likely to reach its cycle peak within the next 200–400 days.
If we assume a continued 50–60% decline in cycle-over-cycle ROI (relative to prior peaks), the projected peak range for $BTC this cycle falls between $180K and $250K.
Conclusion: A conservative and realistic forecast for Bitcoin’s price by the end of 2025 is around $200K.
*data: @Alphractal
SOL LTF Update
$SOL is currently trading above its weekly VWAP, with the main resistance now sitting at the weekly VAH - 179.93, where sellers have been most active.
To continue higher, price must break and hold above VAH. Failure to do so would likely result in a retest of VWAP at 173.47. If that level fails to hold, the next support lies at 167.94 (monthly VWAP).
If SOL breaks through VAH and holds, the next upside targets are 182.18, 185.17, and 187.67.
$SOL is currently trading above its weekly VWAP, with the main resistance now sitting at the weekly VAH - 179.93, where sellers have been most active.
To continue higher, price must break and hold above VAH. Failure to do so would likely result in a retest of VWAP at 173.47. If that level fails to hold, the next support lies at 167.94 (monthly VWAP).
If SOL breaks through VAH and holds, the next upside targets are 182.18, 185.17, and 187.67.
ETH LTF Analysis
$ETH is attempting to stabilize after a sharp liquidation on May 23, which pushed price down through short-term moving averages and into the 2549 dWeek VWAP. Price is now sitting just above that VWAP zone, but the bounce so far has been weak, marked by low volume and clear lower highs.
This suggests passive defense, not active accumulation.
To flip the tone bullish, ETH needs to clear back above the short-term MAs (yellow/green) and reclaim at least the 2600–2632 zone. Until then, any rally toward that region remains a short setup unless proven otherwise.
Key Levels:
2632 – dWeek VAH (prior value top)
2610–2625 – short-term moving average zone (dynamic resistance)
Price stalled around 2565–2570 in prior sessions, weak sellers may defend this level early
2549 – dWeek VWAP (currently being tested)
2467 – dWeek VAL (major value floor; if broken = bigger flush)
What I’m Watching:
Reclaim above 2575 + hold = possible squeeze toward 2630
Failure to hold 2549 VWAP - opens flush to 2467 or lower
Compression between 2549–2570 likely resolves with expansion into one of these zone.
$ETH is attempting to stabilize after a sharp liquidation on May 23, which pushed price down through short-term moving averages and into the 2549 dWeek VWAP. Price is now sitting just above that VWAP zone, but the bounce so far has been weak, marked by low volume and clear lower highs.
This suggests passive defense, not active accumulation.
To flip the tone bullish, ETH needs to clear back above the short-term MAs (yellow/green) and reclaim at least the 2600–2632 zone. Until then, any rally toward that region remains a short setup unless proven otherwise.
Key Levels:
2632 – dWeek VAH (prior value top)
2610–2625 – short-term moving average zone (dynamic resistance)
Price stalled around 2565–2570 in prior sessions, weak sellers may defend this level early
2549 – dWeek VWAP (currently being tested)
2467 – dWeek VAL (major value floor; if broken = bigger flush)
What I’m Watching:
Reclaim above 2575 + hold = possible squeeze toward 2630
Failure to hold 2549 VWAP - opens flush to 2467 or lower
Compression between 2549–2570 likely resolves with expansion into one of these zone.
ETH LTF Analysis
$ETH is attempting to stabilize after a sharp liquidation on May 23, which pushed price down through short-term moving averages and into the 2549 dWeek VWAP. Price is now sitting just above that VWAP zone, but the bounce so far has been weak, marked by low volume and clear lower highs.
This suggests passive defense, not active accumulation.
To flip the tone bullish, ETH needs to clear back above the short-term MAs (yellow/green) and reclaim at least the 2600–2632 zone. Until then, any rally toward that region remains a short setup unless proven otherwise.
Key Levels:
2632 – dWeek VAH (prior value top)
2610–2625 – short-term moving average zone (dynamic resistance)
Price stalled around 2565–2570 in prior sessions, weak sellers may defend this level early
2549 – dWeek VWAP (currently being tested)
2467 – dWeek VAL (major value floor; if broken = bigger flush)
What I’m Watching:
Reclaim above 2575 + hold = possible squeeze toward 2630
Failure to hold 2549 VWAP - opens flush to 2467 or lower
Compression between 2549–2570 likely resolves with expansion into one of these zone.
$ETH is attempting to stabilize after a sharp liquidation on May 23, which pushed price down through short-term moving averages and into the 2549 dWeek VWAP. Price is now sitting just above that VWAP zone, but the bounce so far has been weak, marked by low volume and clear lower highs.
This suggests passive defense, not active accumulation.
To flip the tone bullish, ETH needs to clear back above the short-term MAs (yellow/green) and reclaim at least the 2600–2632 zone. Until then, any rally toward that region remains a short setup unless proven otherwise.
Key Levels:
2632 – dWeek VAH (prior value top)
2610–2625 – short-term moving average zone (dynamic resistance)
Price stalled around 2565–2570 in prior sessions, weak sellers may defend this level early
2549 – dWeek VWAP (currently being tested)
2467 – dWeek VAL (major value floor; if broken = bigger flush)
What I’m Watching:
Reclaim above 2575 + hold = possible squeeze toward 2630
Failure to hold 2549 VWAP - opens flush to 2467 or lower
Compression between 2549–2570 likely resolves with expansion into one of these zone.
ETH LTF Analysis
$ETH is attempting to stabilize after a sharp liquidation on May 23, which pushed price down through short-term moving averages and into the 2549 dWeek VWAP. Price is now sitting just above that VWAP zone, but the bounce so far has been weak, marked by low volume and clear lower highs.
This suggests passive defense, not active accumulation.
To flip the tone bullish, ETH needs to clear back above the short-term MAs (yellow/green) and reclaim at least the 2600–2632 zone. Until then, any rally toward that region remains a short setup unless proven otherwise.
Key Levels:
2632 – dWeek VAH (prior value top)
2610–2625 – short-term moving average zone (dynamic resistance)
Price stalled around 2565–2570 in prior sessions, weak sellers may defend this level early
2549 – dWeek VWAP (currently being tested)
2467 – dWeek VAL (major value floor; if broken = bigger flush)
What I’m Watching:
Reclaim above 2575 + hold = possible squeeze toward 2630
Failure to hold 2549 VWAP - opens flush to 2467 or lower
Compression between 2549–2570 likely resolves with expansion into one of these zone.
$ETH is attempting to stabilize after a sharp liquidation on May 23, which pushed price down through short-term moving averages and into the 2549 dWeek VWAP. Price is now sitting just above that VWAP zone, but the bounce so far has been weak, marked by low volume and clear lower highs.
This suggests passive defense, not active accumulation.
To flip the tone bullish, ETH needs to clear back above the short-term MAs (yellow/green) and reclaim at least the 2600–2632 zone. Until then, any rally toward that region remains a short setup unless proven otherwise.
Key Levels:
2632 – dWeek VAH (prior value top)
2610–2625 – short-term moving average zone (dynamic resistance)
Price stalled around 2565–2570 in prior sessions, weak sellers may defend this level early
2549 – dWeek VWAP (currently being tested)
2467 – dWeek VAL (major value floor; if broken = bigger flush)
What I’m Watching:
Reclaim above 2575 + hold = possible squeeze toward 2630
Failure to hold 2549 VWAP - opens flush to 2467 or lower
Compression between 2549–2570 likely resolves with expansion into one of these zone.
ETH LTF Analysis
$ETH is attempting to stabilize after a sharp liquidation on May 23, which pushed price down through short-term moving averages and into the 2549 dWeek VWAP. Price is now sitting just above that VWAP zone, but the bounce so far has been weak, marked by low volume and clear lower highs.
This suggests passive defense, not active accumulation.
To flip the tone bullish, ETH needs to clear back above the short-term MAs (yellow/green) and reclaim at least the 2600–2632 zone. Until then, any rally toward that region remains a short setup unless proven otherwise.
Key Levels:
2632 – dWeek VAH (prior value top)
2610–2625 – short-term moving average zone (dynamic resistance)
Price stalled around 2565–2570 in prior sessions, weak sellers may defend this level early
2549 – dWeek VWAP (currently being tested)
2467 – dWeek VAL (major value floor; if broken = bigger flush)
What I’m Watching:
Reclaim above 2575 + hold = possible squeeze toward 2630
Failure to hold 2549 VWAP - opens flush to 2467 or lower
Compression between 2549–2570 likely resolves with expansion into one of these zone.
$ETH is attempting to stabilize after a sharp liquidation on May 23, which pushed price down through short-term moving averages and into the 2549 dWeek VWAP. Price is now sitting just above that VWAP zone, but the bounce so far has been weak, marked by low volume and clear lower highs.
This suggests passive defense, not active accumulation.
To flip the tone bullish, ETH needs to clear back above the short-term MAs (yellow/green) and reclaim at least the 2600–2632 zone. Until then, any rally toward that region remains a short setup unless proven otherwise.
Key Levels:
2632 – dWeek VAH (prior value top)
2610–2625 – short-term moving average zone (dynamic resistance)
Price stalled around 2565–2570 in prior sessions, weak sellers may defend this level early
2549 – dWeek VWAP (currently being tested)
2467 – dWeek VAL (major value floor; if broken = bigger flush)
What I’m Watching:
Reclaim above 2575 + hold = possible squeeze toward 2630
Failure to hold 2549 VWAP - opens flush to 2467 or lower
Compression between 2549–2570 likely resolves with expansion into one of these zone.
ETH LTF Analysis
$ETH is attempting to stabilize after a sharp liquidation on May 23, which pushed price down through short-term moving averages and into the 2549 dWeek VWAP. Price is now sitting just above that VWAP zone, but the bounce so far has been weak, marked by low volume and clear lower highs.
This suggests passive defense, not active accumulation.
To flip the tone bullish, ETH needs to clear back above the short-term MAs (yellow/green) and reclaim at least the 2600–2632 zone. Until then, any rally toward that region remains a short setup unless proven otherwise.
Key Levels:
2632 – dWeek VAH (prior value top)
2610–2625 – short-term moving average zone (dynamic resistance)
Price stalled around 2565–2570 in prior sessions, weak sellers may defend this level early
2549 – dWeek VWAP (currently being tested)
2467 – dWeek VAL (major value floor; if broken = bigger flush)
What I’m Watching:
Reclaim above 2575 + hold = possible squeeze toward 2630
Failure to hold 2549 VWAP - opens flush to 2467 or lower
Compression between 2549–2570 likely resolves with expansion into one of these zone.
$ETH is attempting to stabilize after a sharp liquidation on May 23, which pushed price down through short-term moving averages and into the 2549 dWeek VWAP. Price is now sitting just above that VWAP zone, but the bounce so far has been weak, marked by low volume and clear lower highs.
This suggests passive defense, not active accumulation.
To flip the tone bullish, ETH needs to clear back above the short-term MAs (yellow/green) and reclaim at least the 2600–2632 zone. Until then, any rally toward that region remains a short setup unless proven otherwise.
Key Levels:
2632 – dWeek VAH (prior value top)
2610–2625 – short-term moving average zone (dynamic resistance)
Price stalled around 2565–2570 in prior sessions, weak sellers may defend this level early
2549 – dWeek VWAP (currently being tested)
2467 – dWeek VAL (major value floor; if broken = bigger flush)
What I’m Watching:
Reclaim above 2575 + hold = possible squeeze toward 2630
Failure to hold 2549 VWAP - opens flush to 2467 or lower
Compression between 2549–2570 likely resolves with expansion into one of these zone.
ETH LTF Analysis
$ETH is attempting to stabilize after a sharp liquidation on May 23, which pushed price down through short-term moving averages and into the 2549 dWeek VWAP. Price is now sitting just above that VWAP zone, but the bounce so far has been weak, marked by low volume and clear lower highs.
This suggests passive defense, not active accumulation.
To flip the tone bullish, ETH needs to clear back above the short-term MAs (yellow/green) and reclaim at least the 2600–2632 zone. Until then, any rally toward that region remains a short setup unless proven otherwise.
Key Levels:
2632 – dWeek VAH (prior value top)
2610–2625 – short-term moving average zone (dynamic resistance)
Price stalled around 2565–2570 in prior sessions, weak sellers may defend this level early
2549 – dWeek VWAP (currently being tested)
2467 – dWeek VAL (major value floor; if broken = bigger flush)
What I’m Watching:
Reclaim above 2575 + hold = possible squeeze toward 2630
Failure to hold 2549 VWAP - opens flush to 2467 or lower
Compression between 2549–2570 likely resolves with expansion into one of these zone.
$ETH is attempting to stabilize after a sharp liquidation on May 23, which pushed price down through short-term moving averages and into the 2549 dWeek VWAP. Price is now sitting just above that VWAP zone, but the bounce so far has been weak, marked by low volume and clear lower highs.
This suggests passive defense, not active accumulation.
To flip the tone bullish, ETH needs to clear back above the short-term MAs (yellow/green) and reclaim at least the 2600–2632 zone. Until then, any rally toward that region remains a short setup unless proven otherwise.
Key Levels:
2632 – dWeek VAH (prior value top)
2610–2625 – short-term moving average zone (dynamic resistance)
Price stalled around 2565–2570 in prior sessions, weak sellers may defend this level early
2549 – dWeek VWAP (currently being tested)
2467 – dWeek VAL (major value floor; if broken = bigger flush)
What I’m Watching:
Reclaim above 2575 + hold = possible squeeze toward 2630
Failure to hold 2549 VWAP - opens flush to 2467 or lower
Compression between 2549–2570 likely resolves with expansion into one of these zone.
What will BTC's price be by the end of 2025? My Analysis
For this analysis, I used metrics like the MVRV Z-Score, Energy Value Oscillator, Bitcoin Heater, Macro Index, and other indicators, as well as historical data.
TL;DR: $200K is real!
For this analysis, I used metrics like the MVRV Z-Score, Energy Value Oscillator, Bitcoin Heater, Macro Index, and other indicators, as well as historical data.
TL;DR: $200K is real!
What will BTC's price be by the end of 2025? My observations
For this analysis, I used metrics like the MVRV Z-Score, Energy Value Oscillator, Bitcoin Heater, Macro Index, and other indicators, as well as historical data.
TL;DR: $200K is real
Full article -
For this analysis, I used metrics like the MVRV Z-Score, Energy Value Oscillator, Bitcoin Heater, Macro Index, and other indicators, as well as historical data.
TL;DR: $200K is real
Full article -
Kiếm 6.000.000 VND chỉ với 3 bước đơn giản!
Điều kiện:
• Hoàn tất xác minh KYC nâng cao
• Nạp khoản tiền đầu tiên từ 60 USDT trở lên
• Thực hiện giao dịch spot đầu tiên với khối lượng từ 100 USDT trở lên
Điều kiện:
• Hoàn tất xác minh KYC nâng cao
• Nạp khoản tiền đầu tiên từ 60 USDT trở lên
• Thực hiện giao dịch spot đầu tiên với khối lượng từ 100 USDT trở lên
🔹 The Essence of the Energy Value Model
Energy Value is a fundamental metric that estimates Bitcoin’s “fair value” based on the total energy cost of mining it:
V = Hashrate × Energy Efficiency × Fiat Factor / Supply Growth Rate
In other words: the greater the total energy expenditure to issue new bitcoin, the higher its intrinsic base value.
Current Status
BTC Price ≈ $109,000
Energy Value ≈ $129K–133K
The oscillator is near zero: BTC is almost fully “backed” by its fundamental energy-based value.
This is a healthy growth phase - hashrate and energy consumption are rising in sync with price, indicating trend sustainability.
🔹 What This Means for the Market
No Bubble: BTC is not overheated, unlike in 2021 and early 2022.
Energy support signals trend continuation - as long as hashrate continues to rise.
If the oscillator moves into the red zone again (+100%), it may indicate local overheating and a potential correction.
Conclusion
The Energy Value metric suggests that the current BTC price is grounded in miners’ real energy investments and is not purely speculative.
As long as BTC trades near or below its energy-based valuation, it confirms the strength of the trend and provides a fundamentally sound basis for further upside.
Energy Value is a fundamental metric that estimates Bitcoin’s “fair value” based on the total energy cost of mining it:
V = Hashrate × Energy Efficiency × Fiat Factor / Supply Growth Rate
In other words: the greater the total energy expenditure to issue new bitcoin, the higher its intrinsic base value.
Current Status
BTC Price ≈ $109,000
Energy Value ≈ $129K–133K
The oscillator is near zero: BTC is almost fully “backed” by its fundamental energy-based value.
This is a healthy growth phase - hashrate and energy consumption are rising in sync with price, indicating trend sustainability.
🔹 What This Means for the Market
No Bubble: BTC is not overheated, unlike in 2021 and early 2022.
Energy support signals trend continuation - as long as hashrate continues to rise.
If the oscillator moves into the red zone again (+100%), it may indicate local overheating and a potential correction.
Conclusion
The Energy Value metric suggests that the current BTC price is grounded in miners’ real energy investments and is not purely speculative.
As long as BTC trades near or below its energy-based valuation, it confirms the strength of the trend and provides a fundamentally sound basis for further upside.
3 basit adımda 8000 ₺ kazanın!
Koşullar:
• Gelişmiş KYC doğrulamasını tamamlayın
• İlk depozitonuzu 60 USDT veya daha fazla yatırın
• İlk spot işleminizi 100 USDT veya üzeri hacimde gerçekleştirin
Koşullar:
• Gelişmiş KYC doğrulamasını tamamlayın
• İlk depozitonuzu 60 USDT veya daha fazla yatırın
• İlk spot işleminizi 100 USDT veya üzeri hacimde gerçekleştirin
3 basit adımda 8000 ₺ kazanın!
Koşullar:
• Gelişmiş KYC doğrulamasını tamamlayın
• İlk depozitonuzu 60 USDT veya daha fazla yatırın
• İlk spot işleminizi 100 USDT veya üzeri hacimde gerçekleştirin
Koşullar:
• Gelişmiş KYC doğrulamasını tamamlayın
• İlk depozitonuzu 60 USDT veya daha fazla yatırın
• İlk spot işleminizi 100 USDT veya üzeri hacimde gerçekleştirin
Get 200 USDT in 3 easy steps!
Conditions:
• Complete advanced KYC
• Make your first deposit of ≥ 60 USDT
• Execute your first spot trade with a volume of ≥ 100 USDT
Conditions:
• Complete advanced KYC
• Make your first deposit of ≥ 60 USDT
• Execute your first spot trade with a volume of ≥ 100 USDT
Get 200 USDT in 3 easy steps!
Conditions:
• Complete advanced KYC
• Make your first deposit of ≥ 60 USDT
• Execute your first spot trade with a volume of ≥ 100 USDT
Conditions:
• Complete advanced KYC
• Make your first deposit of ≥ 60 USDT
• Execute your first spot trade with a volume of ≥ 100 USDT
What’s Next for BTC?
Since early May, $BTC has been exhibiting a strong recovery trend, with the primary driver remaining a steady inflow of capital into spot ETFs. The latest data shows that between May 13 and May 22, over $3.3 billion flowed into the market via IBIT, FBTC, and ARKB combined, despite isolated outflows from Grayscale. Notably, May 22 saw one of the largest single-day net inflows at $934M, a level that historically coincides with local upside momentum.
In addition, the Coinbase Premium remains firmly positive, signaling strong interest from U.S.-based market makers and institutional brokers. This type of “bottom-up” support creates an environment where even pullbacks are seen as opportunities for accumulation.
📊 Technical Structure
On the 1H chart, $BTC has confirmed a breakout above key moving averages:
- 21EMA, 50EMA, and 200EMA are all trending upward and supporting the move.
- The $107.5K level acts as the key weekly VWAP, below which aggressive buying has been observed.
- A new value area high (VAH) at $110.2K and continued holding above $110K indicate a forming upper fair value zone.
In the near term, holding above $107.5K is critical - if ETF inflows continue and the Coinbase premium holds, we could see another push toward 112–115k by the end of the week.
Forecast & Scenarios
Base Case:
- Price consolidates into a strong value zone above 107–110K.
- Next upside target: 115k, followed by 118–120K, where profit-taking may emerge.
Alternative Case:
- If price dips below 107.5K, key support lies at 105K (dWeek VAL).
- A breakdown below that - combined with a pause in ETF inflows, could shift BTC into a range-bound structure.
As long as institutional demand is validated by ETF inflows and the Coinbase premium, BTC retains both technical and flow-based support for continued upside. Active defense of the 107–110K zone and a sustained breakout above VAH open the path toward $115K+ in the short term.
Since early May, $BTC has been exhibiting a strong recovery trend, with the primary driver remaining a steady inflow of capital into spot ETFs. The latest data shows that between May 13 and May 22, over $3.3 billion flowed into the market via IBIT, FBTC, and ARKB combined, despite isolated outflows from Grayscale. Notably, May 22 saw one of the largest single-day net inflows at $934M, a level that historically coincides with local upside momentum.
In addition, the Coinbase Premium remains firmly positive, signaling strong interest from U.S.-based market makers and institutional brokers. This type of “bottom-up” support creates an environment where even pullbacks are seen as opportunities for accumulation.
📊 Technical Structure
On the 1H chart, $BTC has confirmed a breakout above key moving averages:
- 21EMA, 50EMA, and 200EMA are all trending upward and supporting the move.
- The $107.5K level acts as the key weekly VWAP, below which aggressive buying has been observed.
- A new value area high (VAH) at $110.2K and continued holding above $110K indicate a forming upper fair value zone.
In the near term, holding above $107.5K is critical - if ETF inflows continue and the Coinbase premium holds, we could see another push toward 112–115k by the end of the week.
Forecast & Scenarios
Base Case:
- Price consolidates into a strong value zone above 107–110K.
- Next upside target: 115k, followed by 118–120K, where profit-taking may emerge.
Alternative Case:
- If price dips below 107.5K, key support lies at 105K (dWeek VAL).
- A breakdown below that - combined with a pause in ETF inflows, could shift BTC into a range-bound structure.
As long as institutional demand is validated by ETF inflows and the Coinbase premium, BTC retains both technical and flow-based support for continued upside. Active defense of the 107–110K zone and a sustained breakout above VAH open the path toward $115K+ in the short term.
I believe BTC is still far from its top.
Looking at the MVRV-Z indicator, it's currently below 3 - historically, a reading of 6–7 has marked cycle tops.
So levels around $130K+ are absolutely realistic.
Looking at the MVRV-Z indicator, it's currently below 3 - historically, a reading of 6–7 has marked cycle tops.
So levels around $130K+ are absolutely realistic.
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