This chart illustrates the price trajectory of $BTC following each of the four halving events (2012, 2016, 2020, and 2024). A recurring pattern can be observed across all cycles:

- A major rally and peak typically occur 400–500 days post-halving.

- Each successive cycle has shown a diminishing relative amplitude compared to the previous one.

Current Positioning and Historical Comparison

As of now - approximately 395 days after the 2024 halving - BTC is trading around $107K. For context, at the same stage in previous cycles:

- 2012 cycle: ~$750–1000 (with a peak around ~$3.7K)

- 2016 cycle: ~$6–8K (peak around ~$20K)

- 2020 cycle: ~$45–55K (peak at ~$69K)

When comparing these trajectories, it's clear the current cycle is progressing at a slower pace than 2016 and 2020, and shows significantly lower amplitude than earlier cycles. This aligns with the broader trend of cycle compression and diminishing returns, driven by Bitcoin's growing market cap and increasing market maturity.

BTC Price Outlook for 2025

Given historical patterns and the deceleration in growth, Bitcoin is likely to reach its cycle peak within the next 200–400 days.

If we assume a continued 50–60% decline in cycle-over-cycle ROI (relative to prior peaks), the projected peak range for $BTC this cycle falls between $180K and $250K.

Conclusion: A conservative and realistic forecast for Bitcoin’s price by the end of 2025 is around $200K.

*data: @Alphractal